The Sleepwalkers (107 page)

186
. Paul Cambon to Jules Cambon, Paris, 5 November 1912, AMAE PA-AP, 43, fos. 251–7, here fo. 252.

187
. Jules Cambon to Paul Cambon, Berlin, 14 December 1912, ibid., 100, fos. 178–180.

188
. Douglas Porch,
The March to the Marne. The French Army, 1871–1914
(Cambridge, 1981), pp. 169–70.

189
. Ibid.

190
. Izvolsky to Sazonov, Paris, 28 March 1912,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 2, part 2, doc. 699.

191
. Risto Ropponen,
Die Kraft Russlands. Wie beurteilte die politische und militärische Führung der europäischen Grossmächte in der Zeit von 1905 bis 1914 die Kraft Russlands?
(Helsinki, 1968), p. 235.

192
. Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics
, p. 28; Mosely, ‘Russian Policy', p. 84; Sergei Dmitrievic Sazonov,
Les Années fatales
(Paris, 1927), p. 57.

193
. Raymond Poincaré, ‘Entretien avec M. Sazonoff',August 1912,AMAE, AE NS, Russie 41, fos. 270–72, 282–3. For Sazonov's account of the same meeting, which notes the French minister's displeasure but observes that he soon found good reasons for appreciating the ‘great political importance' of the Serbo-Bulgarian treaty, see Sazonov,
Les Années fatales
, p. 60.

194
. Notes on various conversations, St Petersburg, 12 August 1913, AMAE, Papiers Jean Doulcet, vol. 23, Saint Petersbourg IV, Notes personnelles, 1912–1917, fo. 312.

195
. Ropponen,
Die Kraft Russlands
, p. 236.

196
. Izvolsky to Sazonov, Paris, 12 September 1912, in Stieve,
Schriftwechsel Iswolskis
, vol. 2, doc. 429, pp. 249–52, here p. 251.

197
. Izvolsky to Sazonov, Paris, 24 October 1912, cited in Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 137.

198
. Poincaré to Izvolsky, 4 November 1912, in Narodnogo komissariata po inostrannym delam (ed.),
Materialy po istorii franko-russkikh otnoshenii za 1910–1914 gg: sbornik sekretnykh diplomaticheskikh dokumentov byvshego Imperatorskogo rossiiskogo ministerstva inostrannykh del
(Moscow, 1922), p. 297; see also Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 142.

199
. Izvolsky to Sazonov (letter), Paris, 7 November 1912, in ibid., pp. 295–7; Stieve,
Schrifwechsel Iswolskis
, vol. 2, doc. 554, pp. 335–7, here p. 336 (emphasis added).

200
. Rossos,
Russia and the Balkans
, p. 100.

201
. Izvolsky to Sazonov, 17 November 1912, in Narodnogo komissariata po inostrannym delam (ed.),
Materialy po istorii franko-russkikh otnoshenii za 1910–1914 g.g: sbornik sekretnykh diplomaticheskikh dokumentov byvshego Imperatorskogo rossiikogo ministerstva inostrannykh del
(Moscow, 1922), pp. 299–300, doc. 169; on Poincaré's assurances, see Stieve,
Iswolski und der Weltkrieg
, pp. 99, 121; id. (ed.),
Schriftwechsel Iswolskis
, vol. 2, doc. 567, p. 346; see also Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 146.

202
. Izvolsky to Sazonov, 20 November 1912 and Izvolsky to Sazonov, 20 November,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 4, part 1, docs. 298 and 300.

203
. Poincaré,
Au service de la France
, vol. 2, pp. 199–206, where the author accused Izvolsky of fashioning his conversations with the ambassador into ‘a picturesque and somewhat over-coloured tale'.

204
. Schmidt,
Frankreichs Aussenpolitik
, p. 256.

205
. Alexandre Ribot, Note of 31 October 1912, AN, 563 AP 5, cited in ibid., p. 257.

206
. ‘Note de l'État-Major de l'Armée', 2 September 1912 and Paul to Jules Cambon, Dieppe, 3 September 1912,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 3, dos. 359, 366, pp. 439–40, 449–51.

207
. Paul Cambon to Jules Cambon, Paris, 5 November 1912, AMAE, PA-AP, 43, Cambon, Jules, Lettres de Paul à Jules 1882–1922, 101, fos. 251–7, here fos. 252–3.

208
. Ignatiev to Zhilinsky (chief of the Russian General Staff), Paris, 19 December 1912, cited in Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 149.

209
. Ibid., p. 149.

210
. On Millerand as minister of war in January 1912–January 1913, see Marjorie M. Farrar, ‘Politics Versus Patriotism: Alexandre Millerand as French Minister of War',
French Historical Studies
, 11/4 (1980), 577–609; on the minister's earlier career as a moderate socialist, see Leslie Derfler,
Alexandre Millerand. The Socialist Years
(The Hague, 1977); for a balanced overview of the transition, see Marjorie M. Farrar,
Principled Pragmatist: The Political Career of Alexandre Millerand
(New York, 1991); there are interesting reflections on the tensions in Millerand's career in Antoine Prost, Marie-Louise Goorgen, Noelle Gérome and Danielle Tartakowsky, ‘ Four French Historians Review English Research on the History of French Labour and Socialism',
The Historical Journal
, 37/3 (1994), pp. 709–15, esp. p. 714.

211
. Ignatiev to Zhilinsky, Paris, 4 December 1912, cited in Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 150.

212
. Lucius to Bethmann Hollweg, St Petersburg, 8 January 1913, reporting a conversation with Sazonov, PA-AA, R 10896.

213
. Raymond M. B. Poincaré, ‘Notes journalières', 29 January 1914, BNF (NAF 16026), Poincaré MSS; Hayne,
The French Foreign Office and the Origins of the First World War, 1898–1914
(Oxford, 1993), p. 239.

214
. G. Wright,
The Reshaping of French Democracy. The Story of the Founding of the Fourth Republic
(New York, 1948), p. 10.

215
. John Keiger,
France and the Origins of the First World War
(London, 1983), p. 117.

216
. For his relations with Foreign Minister Jonnart, see Paléologue's diary entries 22 January and 13 February 1913, in M. Paléologue,
Au Quai d'Orsay à la veille de la tourmente. Journal 1913–1914
(Paris, 1947), pp. 15, 42.

217
. Cited in Keiger,
France and the Origins
, p. 120.

218
. William C. Fuller,
Strategy and Power in Russia, 1600–1914
(New York
,
1992), pp. 440, 444.

219
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, p. 161.

220
. Fuller,
Strategy and Power
, p. 439.

221
. ‘8ème Conférence. Procès-verbal de l'entretien du 13 Juillet 1912 entre les Chefs d'État-Major des armées française et russe', AMAE, AE NS, Russie 41, fos. 131–7, here fos. 134–5.

222
. État-Major de l'Armée, 3ème bureau, ‘Note sur l'action militaire de la Russie en Europe', ibid., fos. 255–63.

223
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, p. 162.

224
. Raymond Poincaré, ‘Entretien avec l'Empéreur – Chemins de fer stratégiques'; ‘Entretien avec M. Sazonoff – Mobilisation', St Petersburg, August 1912, AMAE, AE NS Russie 41, fos. 278–9, 288.

225
. Raymond Poincaré, ‘Entretien avec Kokowtsoff – Chemins de fer stratégiques', St Petersburg, August 1912, ibid., fo. 280.

226
. Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 147.

227
. S. R. Williamson, ‘Joffre Reshapes French Strategy, 1911–1913', in Paul Kennedy (ed.),
The War Plans of the Great Powers, 1880–1914
(London, 1979), pp. 133–54, here pp. 134–6.

228
. On the German version of the same conundrum, see Jonathan Steinberg, ‘A German Plan for the Invasion of Holland and Belgium, 1897', in Kennedy (ed.),
War Plans
, pp. 155–70, here p. 162. Steinberg refers here to German strategic thinking, but the same problem confronted the decision-makers in Paris.

229
. Hayne,
French Foreign Policy
, p. 266.

230
. D. N. Collins, ‘The Franco-Russian Alliance and Russian Railways, 1891– 1914',
The Historical Journal
, 16/4 (1973), pp. 777–88, here p. 779.

231
. Buisseret to Davignon, St Petersburg, 25 February 1913, MAEB AD, Russia 3, 1906–13.

232
. François Roth, ‘Raymond Poincaré et Théophile Delcassé: Histoire d'une relation politique', in Conseil général de l'Ariège (ed.),
Delcassé et l'Europe à la veille de la Grande Guerre
(Foix, 2001), pp. 231–46, here p. 236.

233
. Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 151.

234
. Delcassé to Pichon, St Petersburg, 24 March 1913,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 6, doc. 59, pp. 81–2; on the same question raised with Sazonov, see Delcassé to Jonnart, St Petersburg, 21 March 1913, ibid., doc. 44, p. 66.

235
. Report of a conversation with Delcassé of 18 June 1914 by General Laguiche, military attaché in St Petersburg, in Georges Louis,
Les Carnets de Georges Louis
(2 vols., Paris, 1926) vol. 2, p. 126.

236
. B. V. Ananich,
Rossiya I mezhdunarodyi kapital 1897–1914. Ocherki istorii finansovykh otnoshenii
(Leningrad, 1970), pp. 270–71.

237
. On the Three Year Law and Poincaré's role in getting it passed, see J. F. V. Keiger,
Raymond Poincaré
(Cambridge, 1997), pp. 152–3, 162–3; Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics
, pp. 112–13.

238
. Keiger,
France and the Origins
, p. 144.

239
. Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 17 April 1913, 12 June 1913, MAEB AD, France 11, Correspondance politique – légations.

240
. Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 16 January 1914, ibid.

241
. Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 28 May 1914, ibid.

242
. Keiger,
France and the Origins
, pp. 136–7.

243
. Diary entry Thursday 18 April 1913 in Maurice Paléologue,
Journal, 1913–1914
, p. 103.

244
. Keiger,
France and the Origins
, p. 136; on these events, see also the diary entries 16 April to 5 May 1913, in Paléologue,
Journal, 1913–1914
, pp. 100–124.

245
. Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics
, passim.

246
. Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 9 June 1914, MAEB AD, France 12, Correspondance politique – légations.

247
. On the growing opposition to the Three Year Law, see Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 16 January 1914, ibid.

248
. On the collapse of the Ribot government on the day of its first appearance in parliament, see Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 13 June 1914, ibid.

249
. Report by Captain Parchement on ‘stage' in Vilna District in October 1912, cited in Pertti Luntinen,
French Information on the Russian War Plans, 1880–1914
(Helsinki, 1984), p. 175.

250
. Verleuil to [Pichon], Brolles, 7 July 1913, AMAE NS, Russie 42, fos. 58–60, here fo. 59.

251
. Cited in Schmidt,
Frankreichs Aussenpolitik
, pp. 271–3.

252
. Charles Rivet, ‘Lettre de Russie: L'Effort militaire russe', in
Le Temps
, 13 November 1913, cutting in Buisseret to Davignon, St Petersburg, 15 November 1913, MAEB AD, Russie 3 1906–1914.

253
. Ibid., p. 275.

254
. Laguiche to Dupont, 14 February 1914, cited in ibid., p. 279.

255
. Paul Kennedy, ‘The First World War and the International Power System', in Steven E. Miller (ed.),
Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War
(Princeton, 1985), pp. 7–40, here p. 28.

1
. Cited in Zara S. Steiner,
The Foreign Office and Foreign Policy
,
1898–1914
(Cambridge, 1969), p. 153.

2
. On the Baltic Port meetings of 4–6 July 1912, see H. H. Fisher (ed.),
Out of My Past. The Memoirs of Count Kokovtsov, Russian Minister of Finance, 1904–1911, Chairman of the Council of Ministers, 1911–1914,
trans. Laura Matveev (Stanford, 1935)
,
p. 322
.

3
. Notes by Bethmann Hollweg on conversation with Sazonov, 6 July 1912,
GP
, vol. 31, doc. 11542, pp. 439–44.

4
. Fisher (ed.),
Memoirs of Count Kokovtsov
, p. 320.

5
. Notes by Pourtalès, 29 June 1912,
GP
, vol. 31, doc. 11537, pp. 433–6.

6
. Sergei Dmitrievich Sazonov,
Les Années fatales
(Paris, 1927), pp. 48–9.

7
. Fisher (ed.),
Memoirs of Count Kokovtsov
, pp. 320–21.

8
. Bethmann to Foreign Office, Baltic Port, on board the
Hohenzollern
, 6 July 1912,
GP
, vol. 31, doc. 11540, pp. 437–8.

9
. On détente as a potential of the international system before 1914, see Friedrich Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg? Entspannung in den internationalen Beziehungen, 1911–1914
(Munich, 2002), pp. 77–148.

10
. Bethmann to Foreign Office, Baltic Port, on board the
Hohenzollern
, 6 July 1912,
GP
, vol. 31, doc. 11540, pp. 437–8.

11
. Klaus Hildebrand,
Das vergangene Reich
.
Deutsche Aussenpolitik von Bismarck bis Hitler, 1871–1945
(Stuttgart, 1995), pp. 269–76.

12
. Cf. Volker Berghahn,
Germany and the Approach of War in 1914
(Basingstoke, 1993), pp. 120–22 and Imanuel Geiss, ‘The German Version of Imperialism: Weltpolitik', in G. Schöllgen,
Escape into War? The Foreign Policy of Imperial Germany
(Oxford, New York, Munich, 1990), pp. 105–20; here p. 118.

13
. Thus Bethmann's ‘Sketch of a Conceivable Formula' for the Anglo-German negotiations, cited in R. Langhorne, ‘Great Britain and Germany, 1911– 1914', in Francis Harry Hinsley (ed.),
British Foreign Policy under Sir Edward Grey
(Cambridge, 1977), pp. 288–314, here pp. 293–4.

14
. Niall Ferguson,
Pity of War
(London, 1998), p. 72; Langhorne, ‘Great Britain and Germany', pp. 294–5.

15
. R. Langhorne, ‘The Naval Question in Anglo-German Relations, 1912– 1914,
Historical Journal
, 14 (1971), pp. 359–70, here p. 369; cf. Fritz Fischer,
War of Illusions
.
German Policies from 1911 to 1914
, trans. Marian Jackson (London, 1975), pp. 123–31.

16
. R. J. Crampton,
Hollow Détente. Anglo-German Relations in the Balkans, 1911–1914
(London, 1980), pp. 56–8, 72–3; Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg?
, p. 103.

17
. On the mission's objectives and Haldane's ‘disavowal' by the British government, see B. D. E. Kraft,
Lord Haldane's Zending naar Berlijn in 1912. De duitsch-engelsche onderhandelingen over de vlootquaestie
(Utrecht, 1931), pp. 209–11, 214–17, 220–21; draft note to the German government, March 1912, cited in Gregor Schöllgen,
Imperialismus und Gleichgewicht. Deutschland, England und die orientalische Frage, 1871–1914
(Munich, 1984), p. 330.

18
. Kraft,
Zending naar Berlijn
, p. 246.

19
. Samuel R. Williamson,
The Politics of Grand Strategy. Britain and France Prepare for War
,
1904–1914
(Cambridge, MA, 1969), p. 258.

20
. Nicolson to Bertie, 8 February 1912, TNA FO 800 / 171, cited in Steiner,
Foreign Office
, p. 127.

21
. Bertie to Nicolson, Paris, 11 February 1912, cited in Thomas Otte,
The Foreign Office Mind
.
The Making of British Foreign Policy, 1865–1914
(Cambridge, 2011), p. 364; on Nicolson's involvement in and commitment to the Anglo-Russian Convention, see Keith Neilson, ‘“My Beloved Russians”: Sir Arthur Nicolson and Russia, 1906–1916',
International History Review
, 9/4 (1987).

22
. Jonathan Steinberg, ‘Diplomatie als Wille und Vorstellung: Die Berliner Mission Lord Haldanes im Februar 1912' in Herbert Schottelius and Wilhelm Deist (eds.),
Marine und Marinepolitik im kaiserlichen Deutschland, 1871–1914
(Düsseldorf, 1972), pp. 263–82, here p. 264; on the mission and its failure, see also Michael Epkenhans,
Die wilhelminische Flottenrüstung. Weltmachtstreben, industrieller Fortschritt, soziale Integration
(Munich, 1991), pp. 113–37; David Stevenson,
Armaments and the Coming of War: Europe 1904–1914
(Cambridge, 1996), pp. 205–7.

23
. Goschen to Nicolson, Berlin, 20 April 1912, TNA FO 800/355, fos. 20–22.

24
. ‘Foreign Affairs. The Morocco Crisis. Sir E. Grey's Speech',
The Times
, 28 November 1911, p. 13, col. B.

25
. Kühlmann to Bethmann, London, 14 October 1912,
GP
, vol. 33, doc. 12284, p. 228; see also the discussion in Jost Dülffer, Martin Kröger and Rolf-Harald Wippich,
Vermiedene Kriege. Deeskalation von Konflikten der Grossmächte zwischen Krimkrieg and Ersten Weltkring 1856–1914
(Munich,1997), p. 650.

26
. Crampton,
Hollow Détente
.

27
. Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg?
, pp. 89, 122; Paul W. Schroeder, ‘Embedded Counterfactuals and World War I as an Unavoidable War', pp. 28–9.

28
. Ronald Bobroff,
Roads to Glory
.
Late Imperial Russia and the Turkish Straits
(London, 2006); on French concerns about George V: Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 11 April 1913, MAEB AD, France 11, Correspondance politique – légations.

29
. Ira Klein, ‘The Anglo-Russian Convention and the Problem of Central Asia, 1907–1914',
Journal of British Studies
, 11 (1971), pp. 126–47, here p. 128.

30
. Ibid., p. 141.

31
. Grey to Buchanan, London, 11 February 1914, Grey to Buchanan, London, 18 March 1914, TNA, Grey Papers, FO 800/74, cited in Thomas McCall, ‘The Influence of British Military Attachés on Foreign Polich Towards Russia, 1904–1917', M.Phil thesis, University of Cambridge, 2011, p. 53.

32
. Prince Max von Lichnowsky,
My Mission to London, 1912–1914
(London, 1918), p. 29.

33
. Steiner,
Foreign Office
, pp. 121–40, 49; Otte,
Foreign Office Mind
, p. 380.

34
. McCall, ‘British Military Attachés', pp. 33–75.

35
. Hamilton to Haldane, 1 September 1909, cited in ibid., p. 60.

36
. Notes by H. A. Gwynne, editor of the
Morning Post
, on a confidential interview at the FO, probably with Sir William Tyrrell, cited and analysed in Keith M. Wilson, ‘The British Démarche of 3 and 4 December 1912: H. A. Gwynne's Note on Britain, Russia and the First Balkan War',
Slavonic and East European Review
, 60/4 (1984), pp. 552–9, here p. 556.

37
. Nicolson to Goschen, London, 15 April 1912,
BD
, vol. 6, doc. 575, p. 747.

38
. Nicolson to Goschen, London, 25 May 1914, TNA, FO fos. 162–14, here fo. 163. 800/374.

39
. Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg
?, pp. 82–3, Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, p. 180.

40
. Cited in Steiner,
British Foreign Office
, p. 134; on Nicolson's views more generally, see pp. 128, 129, 131, 133, 134, 136–7; Otte,
Foreign Office Mind
, p. 384.

41
. Guillaume to Davignon, Paris, 14 April 1914, MAEB AD, France 11, Correspondance politique – légations.

42
. Otte,
Foreign Office Mind
, pp. 358–9, 387–8.

43
. Nicolson to Bunsen, London, 30 March 1914, TNA, FO 800/373, fos. 80–83, here fo. 83.

44
. These aspects of the international system are explored in Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg?
, and Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson (eds.),
An Improbable War? The Outbreak of World War I and European Political Culture before 1914
(Oxford, 2007), both passim.

45
. Jules Cambon to Poincaré, Berlin, 28 July 1912, AMAE, PA-AP, 43, Cambon Jules 56, fo. 45.

46
. Annika Mombauer,
Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War
(Cambridge, 2001), pp. 145, 211, 281.

47
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 159–63.

48
. Ibid., p. 247.

49
. For German readings of attitudes among senior Russian commanders, see e.g. Pourtalès to Bethmann Hollweg, St Petersburg, 20 November 1912; Griesinger (German minister in Belgrade) to Bethmann Hollweg, 5 February 1913; the quotation is from Romberg (German minister in Bern) to Bethmann Hollweg, Bern, 1 February 1913, reporting a conversation between the Russian military attaché in the city and a member of the Austro-Hungarian legation, all in PA-AA, R 10895.

50
.
The Times
, 3 December 1912, p. 6, col. B.

51
. Ibid.

52
. Cited in Lamar Cecil,
Wilhelm
II (2 vols., Chapel Hill, 1989 and 1996), vol. 2,
Emperor and Exile, 1900–1941,
p. 186; on Bethmann's speech and its significance, see Dülffer, Kröger and Wippich,
Vermiedene Kriege
, pp. 652–4.

53
. For a full reconstruction of the meeting and a discussion of its significance, see J. C. G. Röhl, ‘Dress Rehearsal in December: Military Decision-making in Germany on the Eve of the First World War', in id.,
The Kaiser and His Court. Wilhelm II and the Government of Germany
(Cambridge, 1994), pp. 162–89, here pp. 162–3.

54
. Röhl, ‘Dress Rehearsal', passim; also id., ‘Admiral von Müller and the Approach of War, 1911–1914,
Historical Journal
, 12 (1969), pp. 651–73. Röhl's reading of the ‘war council' of December 1912 as the moment at which the countdown was started for a war planned in advance by Germany is a minority view. At a conference in London in October 2011 (‘The Fischer Controversy 50 Years On', 13–15 October 2011, German Historical Institute London), Röhl radicalized the argument, suggesting that the War Council was the moment at which the Germans decided not to wage war immediately, but to ‘postpone' it until the summer of 1914, an argument expounded earlier by Fischer,
War of Illusions
, pp. 164, 169. The postponement thesis is also central to the argument presented in the third volume of Röhl's biography of the Kaiser, see J. C. G. Röhl,
Wilhelm II. Der Weg in den Abgrund, 1900–1941
(Munich, 2008).

55
. Röhl, ‘Dress Rehearsal'; Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 288–9; F. Fischer, ‘The Foreign Policy of Imperial Germany and the Outbreak of the First World War', in Schöllgen,
Escape into War
?, pp. 19–40; here p. 22; M. S. Coetzee,
The German Army League
(New York, 1990), pp. 36–7; Wolfgang J. Mommsen, ‘Domestic Factors in German Foreign Policy before 1914',
Central European History
, 6 (1973), pp. 3–43, here pp. 12–14.

56
. E. Hölzle,
Die Selbstentmachtung Europas. Das Experiment des Friedens vor und im Ersten Weltkrieg
(Göttingen, 1975), pp. 180–83; Hildebrand,
Das vergangene Reich,
p. 289.

57
. Jagow to Lichnowsky, Berlin, 26 April 1913; Jagow to Flotow, Berlin, 28 April 1913,
GP
, 34/2, pp. 737–8, 752; on submarine building and other naval measures, see Holger H. Herwig,
‘Luxury' Fleet. The Imperial German Navy, 1888–1918
(London, 1980), pp. 87–9; Gary E. Weir, ‘Tirpitz, Technology and Building U-boats 1897–1916',
International History Review
, 6 (1984), pp. 174–90; Hew Strachan,
The First World War
(Oxford, 2001), pp. 53–5.

58
. Moltke to Bethmann and Heeringen, 21 December 1912, cited in Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 291–2.

59
. David Stevenson, ‘War by Timetable? The Railway Race Before 1914',
Past & Present
, 162 (1999), pp. 163–94, here p. 175.

60
. Peter Gattrell,
Government, Industry and Rearmament in Russia, 1900– 1914. The Last Argument of Tsarism
(Cambridge, 1994), pp. 133–4.

61
. Fritz Fischer,
Griff nach der Weltmacht. Die Kriegszielpolitik des kaiserlichen Deutschland 1914–18
(Düsseldorf, 1961), p. 48.

62
. See Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 298, 314; I. V. Bestuzhev, ‘Russian Foreign Policy, February–June 1914',
Journal of Contemporary History
, 1/3 (1966), pp. 93–112, here p. 96.

63
. Paul Kennedy, ‘The First World War and the International Power System', in Steven E. Miller (ed.),
Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War
(Princeton, 1985), p. 29.

64
. Militär-Bericht Nr. 28, St Petersburg, 8–21 May 1914 (copy for the Reich Admiralty), BA-MA Freiburg, RM5/1439. I am grateful to Oliver Griffin for sending me a photocopy of this document. Moltke's views (of 15 December 1913 and 11 July 1914) are cited in Stevenson, ‘War by Timetable?', p. 186.

65
. Matthew Seligmann and Roderick McLean,
Germany from Reich to Republic
(London, 2000), pp. 142–4.

66
. Ferguson, ‘Public Finance and National Security. The Domestic Origins of the First World War Revisited',
Past & Present
, 142 (1994); on Moltke's calls for preventive war in 1908–9, see Fischer,
Griff nach der Weltmacht
, pp. 49–50; id.,
War of Illusions
, p. 88; Norman Stone, ‘Moltke-Conrad: Relations Between the German and Austro-Hungarian General Staffs',
Historical Journal
, 9 (1966), pp. 201–28; Isabel V. Hull, ‘Kaiser Wilhelm II and the “Liebenberg Circle”', in J. C. G. Röhl and N. Sombart (eds.),
Kaiser Wilhelm II. New Interpretations
(Cambridge, 1982), pp. 193–220, esp. 212; Holger H. Herwig, ‘Germany', in Richard F. Hamilton and Holger H. Herwig (eds.),
The Origins of World War I
(Cambridge, 2003), pp. 150–87, esp. p. 166.

67
. Dieter Hoffmann,
Der Sprung ins Dunkle oder wie der 1. Weltkrieg entfesselt wurde
(Leipzig, 2010) see esp. the table on pp. 325–330.

68
. Cited in Stefan Schmidt,
Frankreichs Aussenpolitik in der Julikrise 1914. Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte des Ausbruchs des Ersten Weltkrieges
(Munich, 2009), p. 276.

69
. Henry Wilson, marginal comment on a staff summary of the latest dispatch from Colonel Knox in St Petersburg, 23 March 1914, TNA, WO 106/1039.

70
. Kevin Kramer, ‘A World of Enemies: New Perspectives on German Military Culture and the Origins of the First World War',
Central European History
, 39 (2006), pp. 270–98, here p. 272; on the relationship between the fear of war and the readiness for it, see also Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg?
, p. 57.