The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (66 page)

36
.  Samuel S. Kim and Lowell Dittmer, “Whither China’s Quest for National Identity,” in Lowell Dittmer and Samuel S. Kim, eds.,
China’s Quest for National Identity
(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991), p. 240; Paul Dibb,
Towards a New Balance of Power in Asia
(London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper 295, 1995), pp.  10-16; Roderick MacFarquhar, “The Post-Confucian Challenge,”
Economist,
9 February 1980, pp. 67-72; Kishore Mahbubani, “ ‘The Pacific Impulse,’ ”
Survival,
37 (Spring 1995), 117; James L. Richardson, “Asia-Pacific: The Case for Geopolitical Optimism,”
National Interest,
38 (Winter 1994-95), 32; Paul Dibb, “Towards a New Balance,” p. 13. See Nicola Baker and Leonard C. Sebastian, “The Problem with Parachuting: Strategic Studies and Security in the Asia/Pacific Region,”
Journal of Strategic Studies,
18 (September 1995), 15ff. for an extended discussion of the inapplicability to Asia of European-based concepts, such as the balance of power and the security dilemma.

37
.  
Economist,
23 December 1995; 5 January 1996, pp. 39-40.

38
.  Richard K. Betts, “Vietnam’s Strategic Predicament,”
Survival,
37 (Autumn 1995), 6Iff, 76.

39
.  
New York Times,
12 November 1994, p. 6; 24 November 1994, p. A12;
Interna
-
_p. 345
tional Herald Tribune,
8 November 1994, p. 1; Michel Oksenberg,
Washington Post,
3 September 1995, p. C1.

40
.  Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, “The End of the Alliance? Dilemmas in the U.S.–Japan Relations,” (Unpublished paper, Harvard University, John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, 1994), pp. 18-19.

41
.  Ivan P. Hall, “Japan’s Asia Card,”
National Interest,
38 (Winter 1994-95), 26; Kishore Mahbubani, “The Pacific Impulse,” p. 117.

42
.  Mike M. Mochizuki, “Japan and the Strategic Quadrangle,” in Michael Mandel-baum, ed.,
The Strategic Quadrangle: Russia, China, Japan, and the United States in East Asia
(New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1995), pp. 130-139;
Asahi Shim-bon
poll reported in
Christian Science Monitor,
10 January 1995, p. 7.

43
.  
Financial Times,
10 September 1992, p. 6; Samina Yasmeen, “Pakistan’s Cautious Foreign Policy,”
Survival,
36 (Summer 1994), p. 121, 127-128; Bruce Vaughn, “Shifting Geopolitical Realities Between South, Southwest and Central Asia,”
Central Asian Survey,
13 (No. 2, 1994), 313; Editorial,
Hamshahri,
30 August 1994, pp. 1, 4, in
FBIS-NES-94-173
, 2 September 1994, p. 77.

44
.  Graham E. Fuller, “The Appeal of Iran,”
National Interest,
37 (Fall 1994), p. 95; Mu’ammar al-Qadhdhafi, Sermon, Tripoli, Libya, 13 March 1994, in
FBIS-NES-94-
049
, 14 March 1994, p. 21.

45
.  Fereidun Fesharaki, East-West Center, Hawaii, quoted in
New York Times,
3 April 1994, p. E3.

46
.  Stephen J. Blank,
Challenging the New World Order: The Arms Transfer Policies of the Russian Republic
(Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), pp. 53-60.

47
.  
International Herald Tribune,
25 August 1995, p. 5.

48
.  J. Mohan Malik, “India Copes with the Kremlin’s Fall,”
Orbis,
37 (Winter 1993), 75.

Chapter 10

 
1
.  Mahdi Elmandjra,
Der Spiegel,
11 February 1991, cited in Elmandjra, “Cultural Diversity: Key to Survival in the Future,” (First Mexican Congress on Future Studies, Mexico City, 26-27 September 1994), pp. 3, 11.

 
2
.  David C. Rapoport, “Comparing Militant Fundamentalist Groups,” in Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds.,
Fundamentalisms and the State: Remaking Polities, Economies, and Militance,
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), p. 445.

 
3
.  Ted Galen Carpenter, “The Unintended Consequences of Afghanistan,”
World Policy Journal,
11 (Spring 1994), 78-79, 81, 82; Anthony Hyman, “Arab Involvement in the Afghan War,”
Beirut Review, 7
(Spring 1994), 78, 82; Mary Anne Weaver, “Letter from Pakistan: Children of the Jihad,”
New Yorker,
12 June 1995, pp. 44-45;
Washington Post,
24 July 1995, p. A1;
New York Times,
20 March 1995, p. 1; 28 March 1993, p. 14.

 
4
.  Tim Weiner, “Blowback from the Afghan Battlefield,”
New York Times Magazine,
13 March 1994, p. 54.

 
5
.  Harrison J. Goldin,
New York Times,
28 August 1992, p. A25.

 
6
.  James Piscatori, “Religion and Realpolitik: Islamic Responses to the Gulf War,” in James Piscatori, ed.,
Islamic Fundamentalisms and the Gulf Crisis
(Chicago: Fundamentalism Project, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1991), pp. 1, 6-7. See also Fatima Mernissi,
Islam and Democracy: Fear of the Modern World
(Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley), pp. 16-17.

_p. 346
 
7
.  Rami G. Khouri, “Collage of Comment: The Gulf War and the Mideast Peace; The Appeal of Saddam Hussein,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
8 (Spring 1991), 56.

 
8
.  Ann Mosely Lesch, “Contrasting Reactions to the Persian Gulf Crisis: Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinians,”
Middle East Journal,
45 (Winter 1991), p. 43;
Time,
3 December 1990, p. 70; Kanan Makiya,
Cruelty and Silence: War, Tyranny, Uprising and the Arab World
(New York: W. W. Norton, 1993), pp. 242ff.

 
9
.  Eric Evans, “Arab Nationalism and the Persian Gulf War,”
Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review,
1 (February 1994), p. 28; Sari Nusselbeh, quoted
Time,
15 October 1990, pp. 54-55.

10
.  Karin Haggag, “One Year After the Storm,”
Civil Society
(Cairo), 5 (May 1992), 12.

11
.  
Boston Globe,
19 February 1991, p. 7; Safar al-Hawali, quoted by Mamoun Fandy,
New York Times,
24 November 1990, p. 21; King Hussein, quoted by David S. Landes, “Islam Dunk: the Wars of Muslim Resentment,”
New Republic,
8 April 1991, pp. 15-16; Fatima Mernissi,
Islam and Democracy,
p. 102.

12
.  Safar Al-Hawali, “Infidels, Without, and Within,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
8 (Spring 1991), 51.

13
.  
New York Times,
1 February 1991, p. A7;
Economist, 2
February 1991, p. 32.

14
.  
Washington Post,
29 January 1991, p. A10; 24 February 1991, p. B1;
New York Times,
20 October 1990, p. 4.

15
.  Quoted in
Saturday Star
(Johannesburg), 19 January 1991, p. 3;
Economist,
26 January 1991, pp. 31-33.

16
.  Sohail H. Hasmi, review of Mohammed Haikal, “Illusions of Triumph,”
Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review,
1 (February 1994), 107; Mernissi,
Islam and Democracy,
p. 102.

17
.  Shibley Telhami, “Arab Public Opinion and the Gulf War,”
Political Science Quarterly,
108 (Fall 1993), 451.

18
.  
International Herald Tribune,
28 June 1993, p. 10.

19
.  Roy Licklider, “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-93,”
American Political Science Review,
89 (September 1995), 685, who defines communal wars as “identity wars,” and Samuel P. Huntington, “Civil Violence and the Process of Development,” in
Civil Violence and the International System
(London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper No. 83, December 1971), 12-14, who cites as the five major characteristics of communal wars a high degree of polarization, ideological ambivalence, particularism, large amounts of violence, and protracted duration.

20
.  These estimates come from newspaper accounts and Ted Robert Gurr and Barbara Harff,
Ethnic Conflict in World Politics
(Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 160-165.

21
.  Richard H. Shultz, Jr. and William J. Olson,
Ethnic and Religious Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security
(Washington, D.C.: National Strategy Information Center), pp. 17ff; H. D. S. Greenway,
Boston Globe,
3 December 1992, p. 19.

22
.  Roy Licklider, “Settlements in Civil Wars,” p. 685; Gurr and Harff,
Ethnic Conflict,
p. 11; Trent N. Thomas, “Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict,” in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard H. Shultz, Jr., eds.,
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S. Policy and Army Roles and Missions
(Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), p. 36.

23
.  See Shultz and Olson,
Ethnic and Religious Conflict,
pp. 3-9; Sugata Bose,
_p. 347
“Factors Causing the Proliferation of Ethnic and Religious Conflict,” in Pfaltzgraff and Shultz,
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability,
pp. 45-49; Michael E. Brown, “Causes and Implications of Ethnic Conflict,” in Michael E. Brown, ed.,
Ethnic Conflict and International Security
(Princeton, Nj: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 3-26. For a counterargument that ethnic conflict has not increased since the end of the Cold War, see Thomas, “Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict,” pp. 33-41.

24
.  Ruth Leger Sivard,
World Military and Social Expenditures
1993
(Washington, D.C.: World Priorities, Inc., 1993), pp. 20-22.

25
.  James L. Payne,
Why Nations Arm
(Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1989), p. 124.

26
.  Christopher B. Stone, “Westphalia and Hudaybiyya: A Survey of Islamic Perspectives on the Use of Force as Conflict Management Technique” (unpublished paper, Harvard University), pp. 27-31, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Michael Brecher, and Sheila Moser, eds.,
Crises in the Twentieth Century
(Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988-89), II, 15, 161.

27
.  Gary Fuller, “ The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview,” in Central Intelligence Agency,
The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the
1990s:
Geographic Perspectives
(Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, RTT 95-10039, October 1995), pp. 151-154.

28
.  
New York Times,
16 October 1994, p. 3;
Economist,
5 August 1995, p. 32.

29
.  United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division,
World Population Prospects: The
1994 Revision
(New York: United Nations, 1995), pp. 29, 51; Denis Dragounski, “Threshold of Violence,”
Freedom Review,
26 (March-April 1995), 11.

30
.  Susan Woodward,
Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution,  1995), pp. 32-35; Branka Magas,
The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking the Breakup
1980-92 (London: Verso, 1993), pp. 6, 19.

31
.  Paul Mojzes,
Yugoslavian Inferno: Ethnoreligious Warfare in the Balkans
(New York: Continuum, 1994), pp. 95-96; Magas,
Destruction of Yugoslavia,
pp. 49-73; Aryeh Neier, “Kosovo Survives,”
New York Review of Books,
3 February 1994, p. 26.

32
.  Aleksa Djilas, “A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic,”
Foreign Affairs,
72 (Summer 1993), 83.

33
.  Woodward,
Balkan Tragedy,
pp. 33-35, figures derived from Yugoslav censuses and other sources; William T. Johnsen,
Deciphering the Balkan Enigma: Using History to Inform Policy
(Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), p. 25, citing
Washington Post,
6 December 1992, p. C2;
New York Times,
4 November 1995, p. 6.

34
.  Bogdan Denis Denitch,
Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia
(Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994), pp. 108-109.

35
.  Payne,
Why Nations Arm,
pp. 125, 127.

36
.  
Middle East International,
20 January, 1995, p. 2.

Chapter 11

 
1
.  Roy Licklider, “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-93,”
American Political Science Review,
89 (September 1995), 685.

 
2
.  See Barry R. Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” in Michael E. Brown, ed.,
Ethnic Conflict and International Security
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 103-124.

 
3
.  Roland Dannreuther,
Creating New States in Central Asia
(International Institute
_p. 348
for Strategic Studies/Brassey’s, Adelphi Paper No. 288, March 1994), pp. 30-31; Dodjoni Atovullo, quoted in Urzula Doroszewska, “The Forgotten War: What Really Happened in Tajikistan,”
Uncaptive Minds,
6 (Fall 1993), 33.

 
4
.  
Economist,
26 August 1995, p. 43; 20 January 1996, p. 21.

 
5
.  
Boston Globe,
8 November 1993, p. 2; Brian Murray, “Peace in the Caucasus: Multi-Ethnic Stability in Dagestan,”
Central Asian Survey,
13 (No. 4, 1994), 514-515;
New York Times,
11 November 1991, p. A7; 17 December 1994, p. 7;
Boston Globe, 7
September 1994, p. 16; 17 December 1994, pp. 1ff.

 
6
.  Raju G. C. Thomas, “Secessionist Movements in South Asia,”
Survival,
36 (Summer 1994), 99-101, 109; Stefan Wagstyl, “Kashmiri Conflict Destroys a ‘Paradise,’ ”
Financial Times,
23-24 October 1993, p. 3.