The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (63 page)

_p. 334
15
.  Yoichi Funabashi, “Globalize Asia,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
9 (Winter 1992), 23-24; Kishore M. Mahbubani, “The West and the Rest,”
National Interest,
28 (Summer 1992), 7; Hazuo, “New Concept of Asia,” p. 41.

16
.  
Economist,
9 March 1996, p. 33.

17
.  Bandar bin Sultan,
New York Times,
10 July 1994, p. 20.

18
.  John L. Esposito,
The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 12; Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, “The Islamic Resurgence,” in Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, ed.,
Islamic Resurgence in the Arab World
(New York: Praeger, 1982), pp. 9-13.

19
.  Thomas Case, quoted in Michael Walzer,
The Revolution of the Saints: A Study in the Origins of Radical Politics
(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1965), pp. 10-11; Hassan Al-Turabi, “The Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
9 (Summer 1992), 52. The single most useful volume for understanding the character, appeal, limitations, and historical role of late-twentieth-century Islamic fundamentalism may well be Walzer’s study of sixteenth- and seventeenth-century English Calvinist Puritanism.

20
.  Donald K. Emerson, “Islam and Regime in Indonesia: Who’s Coopting Whom?” (unpublished paper, 1989), p. 16; M. Nasir Tamara,
Indonesia in the Wake of Islam,
1965-1985 (Kuala Lumpur: Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, 1986), p. 28;
Economist,
14 December 1985, pp. 35-36; Henry Tanner, “Islam Challenges Secular Society,”
International Herald Tribune,
27 June 1987, pp. 7-8; Sabri Sayari, “Politicization of Islamic Re-traditionalism: Some Preliminary Notes,” in Metin Heper and Raphael Israeli, eds.,
Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East
(London: Croom Helm, 1984), p. 125;
New York Times,
26 March 1989, p. 14; 2 March 1995, p. A8. See, for example, reports on these countries in
New York Times,
17 November 1985, p. 2E
_;
15 November 1987, p. 13; 6 March 1991, p. A11; 20 October 1990, p. 4; 26 December 1992, p. 1; 8 March 1994, p. A15; and
Economist,
15 June 1985, pp. 36-37 and 18 September 1992, pp. 23-25.

21
.  
New York Times,
4 October 1993, p. A8; 29 November 1994, p. A4; 3 February 1994, p.1; 26 December 1992, p.5; Erika G. Alin, “Dynamics of the Palestinian Uprising: An Assessment of Causes, Character, and Consequences,”
Comparative Politics,
26 (July 1994), 494;
New York Times,
8 March 1994, p. A15; James Peacock, “The Impact of Islam,”
Wilson Quarterly,
5 (Spring 1981), 142; Tamara,
Indonesia in the Wake of Islam,
p. 22.

22
.  Olivier Roy,
The Failure of Political Islam
(London: Tauris, 1994), p. 49ff;
New York Times,
19 January 1992, p. E3;
Washington Post,
21 November 1990, p. A1. See Gilles Keppel,
The Revenge of Cod: The Resurgence of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism in the Modern World
(University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1994), p. 32; Farida Faouzia Charfi, “When Galileo Meets Allah,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
11 (Spring 1994), 30; Esposito,
Islamic Threat,
p. 10.

23
.  Mahnaz Ispahani, “Varieties of Muslim Experience,”
Wilsoii Quarterly,
13 (Autumn 1989), 72.

24
.  Saad Eddin Ibhrahim, “Appeal of Islamic Fundamentalism,” (Paper presented to the Conference on Islam and Politics in the Contemporary Muslim World, Harvard University, 15-16 October 1985), pp. 9-10, and “Islamic Militancy as a Social Movement: The Case of Two Groups in Egypt,” in Dessouki, ed.,
Islamic Resurgence,
pp. 128-131.

25
.  
Washington Post,
26 October 1980, p. 23; Peacock, “Impact of Islam,” p. 140; Ilkay Sunar and Binnaz Toprak, “Islam in Politics: The Case of Turkey,”
Government
_p. 335
and Opposition,
18 (Autumn 1983), 436; Richard W. Bulliet, “The Israeli-PLO Accord: The Future of the Islamic Movement,”
Foreign Affairs,
72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 42.

26
.  Ernest Gellner, “Up from Imperialism,”
New
Republic,
22 May 1989, p. 35; John Murray Brown, “Tansu Ciller and the Question of Turkish Identity,”
World Policy Journal,
11 (Fall 1994), 58; Roy,
Failure of Political Islam,
p. 53.

27
.  Fouad Ajami, “The Impossible Life of Muslim Liberalism,”
New Republic, 2
June 1986, p. 27.

28
.  Clement Moore Henry, “The Mediterranean Debt Crescent,” (Unpublished manuscript), p. 346; Mark N. Katz, “Emerging Patterns in the International Relations of Central Asia,”
Central Asian Monitor,
(No. 2, 1994), 27; Mehrdad Haghayeghi, “Islamic Revival in the Central Asian Republics,”
Central Asian Survey,
13 (No. 2, 1994), 255.

29
.  
New York Times,
10 April 1989, p. A3; 22 December 1992, p. 5;
Economist,
10 October 1992, p. 41.

30
.  
Economist,
20 July 1991, p. 35; 21 December 1991-3 January 1992, p. 40; Mahfulzul Hoque Choudhury, “Nationalism, Religion and Politics in Bangladesh,” in Rafiuddin Ahmed, ed.,
Bangladesh: Society, Religion and Politics
(Chittagong: South Asia Studies Group, 1985), p. 68;
New York Times,
30 November 1994, p. A14;
Wall Street Journal,
1 March 1995, pp. 1, A6.

31
.  Donald L. Horowitz, “The Qur’an and the Common Law: Islamic Law Reform and the Theory of Legal Change,”
American Journal of Comparative Law,
42 (Spring and Summer, 1994), 234ff.

32
.  Dessouki, “Islamic Resurgence,” p. 23.

33
.  Daniel Pipes,
In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power
(New York: Basic Books, 1983), pp. 282-283, 290-292; John Barrett Kelly,
Arabia, the Gulf and the West
(New York: Basic Books, 1980), pp. 261, 423, as quoted in Pipes,
Path of God,
p. 291.

34
.  United Nations Population Division,
World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision
(New York: United Nations, 1993), table A18; World Bank,
World Development Report 1995
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), table 25; Jean Bourgeois-Pichat, “Le Nombre des Hommes: Etat et Prospective,” in Albert Jacquard, ed.,
Les Scientifiques Parlent
(Paris: Hachette, 1987), pp. 154, 156.

35
.  Jack A. Goldstone,
Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), passim, but esp. 24-39.

36
.  Herbert Moeller, “Youth as a Force in the Modern World,”
Comparative Studies in Society and History,
10 (April 1968), 237-260; Lewis S. Feuer, “Generations and the Theory of Revolution,”
Survey,
18 (Summer 1972), pp. 161-188.

37
.  Peter W. Wilson and Douglas F. Graham,
Saudi Arabia: The Coming Storm
(Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), pp. 28-29.

38
.  Philippe Fargues, “Demographic Explosion or Social Upheaval,” in Ghassen Salame, ed.,
Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World
(London: I. B. Tauris, 1994), pp. 158-162, 175-177.

39
.  
Economist,
29 August 1981, p. 40; Denis Dragounski, “Threshold of Violence,”
Freedom Review,
26 (March/April 1995), 11.

Chapter 6

 
1
.  Andreas Papandreou, “Europe Turns Left,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
11 (Winter 1994), 53; Vuk Draskovic, quoted in Janice A. Broun, “Islam in the Balkans,”
Freedom Review,
22 (Nov./Dec.  1991), 31; F. Stephen Larrabee, “Instability and
_p. 336
Change in the Balkans,”
Survival,
34 (Summer 1992), 43; Misha Glenny, “Heading Off War in the Southern Balkans,”
Foreign Affairs,
74 (May/June 1995), 102-103.

 
2
.  Ali Al-Amin Mazrui,
Cultural Forces in World Politics
(London: James Currey 1990), p. 13.

 
3
.  See e.g.,
Economist
, 16 November 1991, p. 45, 6 May 1995, p. 36.

 
4
.  Ronald B. Palmer and Thomas J. Reckford,
Building ASEAN: 20 Years of Southeast Asian Cooperation
(New York: Praeger, 1987), p. 109;
Economist,
23 July 1994, pp 31-32.

 
5
.  Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, “Rethinking East Asian Security,”
Survival,
36 (Summer 1994), 16.

 
6
.  
Far Eastern Economic Review,
11 August 1994, p. 34.

 
7
.  An interview between Datsuk Seri Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia and Kenichi Ohmae, pp. 3, 7; Rafidah Azia,
New York Times,
12 February 1991, p. D6.

 
8
.  
Japan Times,
7 November 1994, p. 19;
Economist,
19 November 1994, p. 37.

 
9
.  Murray Weidenbaum, “Greater China: A New Economic Colossus?”
Washington Quarterly,
16 (Autumn 1993), 78-80.

10
.  
Wall Street Journal,
30 September 1994, p. A8;
New York Times,
17 February 1995, p. A6.

11
.  
Economist,
8 October 1994, p. 44; Andres Serbin, “Towards an Association of Caribbean States: Raising Some Awkward Questions,”
Journal of Interamerican Studies,
36 (Winter 1994), 61-90.

12
.  
Far Eastern Economic Review,
5 July 1990, pp. 24-25, 5 September 1991, pp. 26-27;
New York Times,
16 February 1992, p. 16;
Economist,
15 January 1994, p. 38; Robert D. Hormats, “Making Regionalism Safe,”
Foreign Affairs,
73 (March/April 1994), 102-103;
Economist,
10 June 1994, pp. 47-48;
Boston Globe,
5 February 1994, p. 7. On Mercosur, see Luigi Manzetti, “The Political Economy of MERCOSUR,”
Journal of Interamerican Studies,
35 (Winter 1993/94), 101-141, and Felix Pena, “New Approaches to Economic Integration in the Southern Cone,”
Washington Quarterly,
18 (Summer 1995), 113-122.

13
.  
New York Times,
8 April 1994, p. A3, 13 June 1994, pp. D1, D5, 4 January 1995, p. A8; Mahathir Interview with Ohmae, pp. 2, 5; “Asian Trade New Directions,”
AMEX Bank Review,
20 (22 March 1993), 1-7.

14
.  See Brian Pollins, “Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?”
American Political Science Review,
83 (June 1989), 465-480; Joanne Gowa and Edward D. Mansfield, “Power Politics and International Trade,”
American Political Science Review,
87 (June 1993), 408-421; and David M. Rowe, “Trade and Security in International Relations,” (unpublished paper, Ohio State University, 15 September 1994), passim.

15
.  Sidney W. Mintz, “Can Haiti Change?”
Foreign Affairs,
75 (Jan./Feb. 1995), 73; Ernesto Perez Balladares and Joycelyn McCalla quoted in “Haiti’s Traditions of Isolation Makes U.S. Task Harder,”
Washington Post,
25 July 1995, p. A1.

16
.  
Economist,
23 October 1993, p. 53.

17
.  
Boston Globe,
21 March 1993, pp. 1, 16, 17;
Economist,
19 November 1994, p. 23, 11 June 1994, p. 90. The similarity between Turkey and Mexico in this respect has been pointed out by Barry Buzan, “New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century,”
International Affairs,
67 (July 1991), 449, and Jagdish Bhagwati,
The World Trading System at Risk
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), p. 72.

18
.  See Marquis de Custine,
Empire of the Czar: A Journey Through Eternal Russia
(New York: Doubleday, 1989; originally published in Paris in 1844), passim.

19
.  P. Ya. Chaadayev,
Articles and Letters [Statyi i pisma]
(Moscow: 1989), p. 178 and N. Ya. Danilevskiy,
Russia and Europe [Rossiya i Yevropa]
(Moscow: 1991), pp.
_p. 337
267-268, quoted in Sergei Vladislavovich Chugrov, “Russia Between East and West,” in Steve Hirsch, ed., MEMO 3:
In Search of Answers in the Post-Soviet Era
(Washington, D.C.: Bureau of National Affairs, 1992), p. 138.

20
.  See Leon Aron, “The Battle for the Soul of Russian Foreign Policy,”
The American Enterprise,
3 (Nov./Dec. 1992), 10ff; Alexei G. Arbatov, “Russia’s Foreign Policy Alternatives,”
International Security,
18 (Fall 1993), 5ff.

21
.  Sergei Stankevich, “Russia in Search of Itself,”
National Interest,
28 (Summer 1992), 48-49.

22
.  Albert Motivans, “ ‘Openness to the West’ in European Russia,”
RFE/RL Research Report,
1 (27 November 1992), 60-62. Scholars have calculated the allocation of votes in different ways with minor differences in results. I have relied on the analysis by Sergei Chugrov, “Political Tendencies in Russia’s Regions: Evidence from the 1993 Parliamentary Elections” (Unpublished paper, Harvard University, 1994).

23
.  Chugrov, “Russia Between,” p. 140.

24
.  Samuel P. Huntington,
Political Order in Changing Societies
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), pp. 350-351.

25
.  Duygo Bazoglu Sezer, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy Facing a Dilemma,”
International Spectator,
27 (Jan./Mar. 1992), 24.

26
.  Clyde Haberman, “On Iraq’s Other Front,”
New York Times Magazine,
18 November 1990, p. 42; Bruce R. Kuniholm, “Turkey and the West,”
Foreign Affairs,
70 (Spring 1991), 35-36.

27
.  Ian Lesser, “Turkey and the West after the Gulf War,”
International Spectator,
27 (Jan./Mar. 1992), 33.

28
.  
Financial Times,
9 March 1992, p. 2;
New York Times, 5
April 1992, p. E3; Tansu Ciller, “The Role of Turkey in ‘the New World,’ ”
Strategic Review,
22 (Winter 1994), p. 9; Haberman, “Iraq’s Other Front,” p. 44; John Murray Brown, “Tansu Ciller and the Question of Turkish Identity,”
World Policy Journal,
11 (Fall 1994), 58.