The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (67 page)

 
7
.  Alija Izetbegovic,
The Islamic Declaration
(1991), pp. 23, 33.

 
8
.  
New York Times,
4 February 1995, p. 4; 15 June 1995, p. A12; 16 June 1995, p.A12.

 
9
.  
Economist,
20 January 1996, p. 21;
New York Times,
4 February 1995, p. 4.

10
.  Stojan Obradovic, “Tuzla: The Last Oasis,”
Uncaptive Minds,
7 (Fall-Winter 1994), 12-13.

11
.  Fiona Hill,
Russia’s Tinderbox: Conflict in the North Caucasus and Its Implications for the Future of the Russian Federation
(Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, September 1995), p. 104.

12
.  
New York Times,
6 December 1994, p. A3.

13
.  See Mojzes,
Yugoslavian Inferno,
chap. 7, “The Religious Component in Wars”; Denitch,
Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia,
pp. 29-30, 72-73, 131-133;
New York Times,
17 September 1992, p. A14; Misha Glenny, “Carnage in Bosnia, for Starters,”
New York Times,
29 July 1993, p. A23.

14
.  
New York Times,
13 May 1995, p. A3; 7 November 1993, p. E4; 13 March 1994, p. E3; Boris Yeltsin, quoted in Barnett R. Rubin, “The Fragmentation of Tajikistan,”
Survival,
35 (Winter 1993-94), 86.

15
.  
New York Times,
7 March 1994, p. 1; 26 October 1995, p. A25; 24 September 1995, p. E3; Stanley Jeyaraja Tambiah,
Sri Lanka: Ethnic Fratricide and the Dismantling of Democracy
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986), p. 19.

16
.  Khalid Duran, quoted in Richard H. Schultz, Jr. and William J. Olson,
Ethnic and Religious Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security
(Washington, D.C.: National Strategy Information Center), p. 25.

17
.  Khaching Tololyan, “The Impact of Diasporas in U.S. Foreign Policy,” in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard H. Shultz, Jr., eds.,
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S. Policy and Army Roles and Missions
(Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), p. 156.

18
.  
New York Times,
25 June 1994, p. A6; 7 August 1994, p. A9;
Economist,
31 October 1992, p. 38; 19 August 1995, p. 32;
Boston Globe,
16 May 1994, p. 12; 3 April 1995, p. 12.

19
.  
Economist,
27 February 1988, p. 25; 8 April 1995, p. 34; David C. Rapoport, “The Role of External Forces in Supporting Ethno-Religious Conflict,” in Pfaltzgraff and Shultz,
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability,
p. 64.

20
.  Rapoport, “External Forces,” p. 66;
New York Times,
19 July 1992, p. E3; Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban, “Protracted Civil War in the Sudan: Its Future as a Multi-Religious, Multi-Ethnic State,”
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs,
16 (Summer 1992), 73.

21
.  Steven R. Weisman, “Sri Lanka: A Nation Disintegrates,”
New York Times Magazine,
13 December 1987, p. 85.

_p. 349
22
.  
New York Times,
29 April 1984, p. 6; 19 June 1995, p. A3; 24 September 1995, p. 9;
Economist,
11 June 1988, p. 38; 26 August 1995, p. 29; 20 May 1995, p. 35; 4 November 1995, p. 39.

23
.  Barnett Rubin, “Fragmentation of Tajikistan,” pp. 84, 88;
New York Times,
29 July 1993, p. 11;
Boston Globe,
4 August 1993, p. 4. On the development of the war in Tajikistan, I have relied largely on Barnett R. Rubin, “The Fragmentation of Tajikistan,”
Survival,
35 (Winter 1993-94), 71-91; Roland Dannreuther,
Creating New States in Central Asia
(International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper No. 288, March 1994); Hafizulla Emadi, “State, Ideology, and Islamic Resurgence in Tajikistan,”
Central Asian Survey,
13 (No. 4, 1994), 565-574; and newspaper accounts.

24
.  Urszula Doroszewska, “Caucasus Wars,”
Uncaptive Minds,
7 (Winter-Spring 1994), 86.

25
.  
Economist,
28 November 1992, p. 58; Hill,
Russia’s Tinderbox,
p. 50.

26
.  
Moscow Times,
20 January 1995, p. 4; Hill,
Russia’s Tinderbox,
p. 90.

27
.  
Economist,
14 January 1995, pp. 43ff.;
New York Times,
21 December 1994, p. A18; 23 December 1994, pp. A1, A10; 3 January 1995, p. 1; 1 April 1995, p. 3; 11 December 1995, p. A6; Vicken Cheterian, “Chechnya and the Transcaucasian Republics,”
Swiss Review of World Affairs,
February 1995, pp. 10-11;
Boston Globe,
5 January 1995, pp. 1ff.; 12 August 1995, p. 2.

28
.  Vera Tolz, “Moscow and Russia’s Ethnic Republics in the Wake of Chechnya,” Center for Strategic and International Studies,
Post-Soviet Prospects,
3 (October 1995), 2;
New York Times,
20 December 1994, p. A14.

29
.  Hill,
Russia’s Tinderbox,
p. 4; Dmitry Temin, “Decision Time for Russia,”
Moscow Times,
3 February 1995, p. 8.

30
.  
New York Times,
7 March 1992, p. 3; 24 May 1992, p. 7;
Boston Globe,
5 February 1993, p. 1; Bahri Yilmaz, “Turkey’s New Role in International Politics,”
Aussenpolitik,
45 (January 1994), 95;
Boston Globe,
7 April 1993, p. 2.

31
.  
Boston Globe,
4 September 1993, p. 2; 5 September 1993, p. 2; 26 September 1993, p. 7;
New York Times,
4 September 1993, p. 5; 5 September 1993, p. 19; 10 September 1993, p. A3.

32
.  
New York Times,
12 February 1993, p. A3; 8 March 1992, p. 20; 5 April 1993, p. A7; 15 April 1993, p. A9; Thomas Goltz, “Letter from Eurasia: Russia’s Hidden Hand,”
Foreign Policy,
92 (Fall 1993), 98-104; Hill and Jewett,
Back in the USSR,
p. 15.

33
.  Fiona Hill and Pamela Jewett,
Back in the USSR: Russia’s Intervention in the Internal Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the Implications for the United States Policy Toward Russia
(Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, January 1994), p. 10.

34
.  
New York Times,
22 May 1992, p. A29; 4 August 1993, p. A3; 10 July 1994, p. E4;
Boston Globe,
25 December 1993, p. 18; 23 April 1995, pp. 1, 23.

35
.  Flora Lewis, “Between TV and the Balkan War,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
11 (Summer 1994), 47; Hanns W. Maull, “Germany in the Yugoslav Crisis,”
Survival,
37 (Winter 1995-96), 112; Wolfgang Krieger, “Toward a Gaullist Germany? Some Lessons from the Yugoslav Crisis,”
World Policy Journal,
11 (Spring 1994), 31-32.

36
.  Misha Glenny, “Yugoslavia: The Great Fall,”
New
York Review of Books,
23 March 1993, p. 61; Pierre Behar, “Central Europe: The New Lines of Fracture,”
Geopohtique,
39 (Autumn 1994), 44.

37
.  Pierre Behar, “Central Europe and the Balkans Today: Strengths and Weaknesses,”
Geopolitique,
35 (Autumn 1991), p. 33;
New York Times,
23 September 1993, p. A9;
Washington Post,
13 February 1993, p. 16; Janusz Bugajski, “The Joy of War,”
_p. 350
Post-Soviet Prospects,
(Center for Strategic and International Studies), 18 March 1993, p. 4.

38
.  Dov Ronen,
The Origins of Ethnic Conflict: Lessons from Yugoslavia
(Australian National University, Research School of Pacific Studies, Working Paper No. 155, November 1994), pp. 23-24; Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 3.

39
.  
New York Times,
1 August 1995, p. A6; 28 October 1995, pp. 1, 5; 5 August 1995, p. 4;
Economist,
11 November 1995, pp. 48-49.

40
.  
Boston Globe,
4 January 1993, p. 5; 9 February 1993, p. 6; 8 September 1995, p. 7; 30 November 1995, p. 13;
New York Times,
18 September 1995, p. A6; 22 June 1993, p. A23; Janusz Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 4.

41
.  
Boston Globe,
1 March 1993, p. 4; 21 February 1993, p. 11; 5 December 1993, p. 30;
Times
(London), 2 March 1993, p. 14;
Washington Post,
6 November 1995, p. A15.

42
.  
New York Times,
2 April 1995, p. 10; 30 April 1995, p. 4; 30 July 1995, p. 8; 19 November 1995, p. E3.

43
.  
New York Times,
9 February 1994, p. A12; 10 February 1994, p. A1; 7 June 1995, p. A1;
Boston Globe,
9 December 1993, p. 25;
Europa Times,
May 1994, p. 6; Andreas Papandreou, “Europe Turns Left,”
New Perspectives Quarterly,
11 (Winter 1994), 53.

44
.  
New York Times,
10 September 1995, p. 12; 13 September 1995, p. A11; 18 September 1995, p. A6;
Boston Globe,
8 September 1995, p. 2; 12 September 1995, p. 1; 10 September 1995, p. 28.

45
.  
Boston Globe,
16 December 1995, p. 8;
New York Times,
9 July 1994, p. 2.

46
.  Margaret Blunden, “Insecurity on Europe’s Southern Flank,”
Survival,
36 (Summer 1994), 145;
New York Times,
16 December 1993, p. A7.

47
.  Fouad Ajami, “Under Western Eyes: The Fate of Bosnia” (Report prepared for the International Commission on the Balkans of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and The Aspen Institute, April 1996), pp. 5ff.;
Boston Globe,
14 August 1993, p. 2;
Wall Street Journal,
17 August 1992, p. A4.

48
.  Yilmaz, “Turkey’s New Role,” pp. 94, 97.

49
.  Janusz Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 4;
New York Times,
14 November 1992, p. 5; 5 December 1992, p. 1; 15 November 1993, p. 1; 18 February 1995, p. 3; 1 December 1995, p. A14; 3 December 1995, p. 1; 16 December 1995, p. 6; 24 January 1996, pp. A1, A6; Susan Woodward,
Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 356-357;
Boston Globe,
10 November 1992, p. 7; 13 July 1993, p. 10; 24 June 1995, p. 9; 22 September 1995, pp. 1, 15; Bill Gertz,
Washington Times, 2
June 1994, p. A1.

50
.  
Jane’s Sentinel,
cited in
Economist,
6 August 1994, p. 41;
Economist,
12 February 1994, p. 21;
New York Times,
10 September 1992, p. A6; 5 December 1992, p. 6; 26 January 1993, p. A9; 14 October 1993, p. A14; 14 May 1994, p. 6; 15 April 1995, p. 3; 15 June 1995, p. A12; 3 February 1996, p. 6;
Boston Globe,
14 April 1995, p. 2;
Washington Post, 2
February 1996, p. 1.

51
.  
New York Times,
23 January 1994, p. 1;
Boston Globe,
1 February 1994, p. 8.

52
.  On American acquiescence in Muslim arms shipments, see
New York Times,
15 April 1995, p. 3; 3 February 1996, p. 6;
Washington Post, 2
February 1996, p. 1;
Boston Globe,
14 April 1995, p. 2.

53
.  Rebecca West,
Black Lamb and Grey Falcon: The Record of a Journey through Yugoslavia in
1937
(London: Macmillan, 1941), p. 22 quoted in Charles G. Boyd, “Making Peace with the Guilty: the Truth About Bosnia,”
Foreign Affairs,
74 (Sept./ Oct. 1995), 22.

_p. 351
54
.  Quoted in Timothy Garton Ash, “Bosnia in Our Future,”
New York Review of Books,
21 December 1995, p. 27;
New York Times,
5 December 1992, p. 1.

55
.  
New York Times,
3 September 1995, p. 6E;
Boston Globe,
11 May 1995, p. 4.

56
.  See U.S. Institute of Peace,
Sudan: Ending the War, Moving Talks Forward
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Special Report, 1994);
New York Times,
26 February 1994, p. 3.

57
.  John J. Maresca,
War in the Caucasus
(Washington: United States Institute of Peace, Special Report, no date), p. 4.

58
.  Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games,”
International Organization,
42 (Summer 1988), 427-460; Samuel P. Huntington,
The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century
(Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp. 121-163.

59
.  
New York Times,
27 January 1993, p. A6; 16 February 1994, p. 47. On the Russian February 1994 initiative, see generally Leonard J. Cohen, “Russia and the Balkans: Pan-Slavism, Partnership and Power,”
International Journal,
49 (August 1994), 836-845.

60
.  
Economist,
26 February 1994, p. 50.

61
.  
New York Times,
20 April 1994, p. A12;
Boston Globe,
19 April 1994, p. 8.

62
.  
New York Times,
15 August 1995, p. 13.

63
.  Hill and Jewitt,
Back in the
USSR
, p. 12; Paul Henze,
Georgia and Armenia–Toward Independence
(Santa Monica, CA: RAND P-7924, 1995), p. 9;
Boston Globe,
22 November 1993, p. 34.

Chapter 12

 
1
.  Arnold J. Toynbee, A
Study of History
(London: Oxford University Press, 12 vols., 1934-1961), VII, 7-17;
Civilization on Trial: Essays
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1948), 17-18;
Study
of History,
IX, 421-422.

 
2
.  Matthew Melko,
The Nature of Civilizations
(Boston: Porter Sargent, 1969), p. 155

 
3
.  Carroll Quigley,
The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis
(New York: Macmillan, 1961), pp. 146ff.