The Sleepwalkers (100 page)

66
. Theodor von Sosnosky,
Die Balkanpolitik Österreich-Ungarns seit 1866
(Berlin, 1913), pp. 170–72; Schmitt,
Annexation of Bosnia
, pp. 43–4; Afflerbach,
Dreibund
, pp. 750–54, 788–814; R. J. B. Bosworth,
Italy, the Least of the Great Powers: Italian Foreign Policy before the First World War
(Cambridge, 1979), pp. 87–8, 223–4, 245.

67
. W. M. Carlgren,
Iswolsky und Aehrenthal vor der bosnischen Annexionskrise. Russische und österreichisch-ungarische Balkanpolitik 1906–1908
(Uppsala, 1955), pp. 86–7.

68
. David Stevenson,
Armaments and the Coming of War. Europe 1904–1915
(Oxford, 1996), pp. 162–3.

69
. Paul Miliukov,
Political Memoirs 1905–1917
, trans. Carl Goldberg (Ann Arbor, 1967), p. 242; V. N. Strandmann,
Balkanske Uspomene
, trans. from the Russian into Serbian by Jovan Kachaki (Belgrade, 2009), p. 238.

70
. G. Schödl,
Kroatische Nationalpolitik und ‘Jugoslavenstvo'. Studien zur nationalen Integration und regionaler Politik in Kroatien-Dalmatien am Beginn des
20
. Jahrhunderts
(Munich, 1990), p. 289.

71
. Tomáš G. Masaryk,
Der Agramer Hochverratsprozess und die Annexion von Bosnien und Herzegowina
(Vienna, 1909), a pamphlet containing most of the key speeches by Masaryk on the Agram trial scandal; see also von Sosnosky,
Die Balkanpolitik
, pp. 221–4; Baernreither,
Fragmente
.
Die südslawische Frage
, pp. 133–45.

72
. Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 9 November 1910,
ÖUAP
, vol. 3, doc. 2296, p. 40; Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 13 November 1910, ibid., doc. 2309, p. 49; Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 15 November 1910, ibid., doc. 2316, pp. 56–8; Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 22 November 1910, ibid., doc. 2323, pp. 64–6.

73
. Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 26 November 1910, ibid., doc. 2329, pp. 72–4.

74
. Forgách to Macchio, Belgrade, 17 January 1911, ibid., doc. 2413, p. 146.

75
. Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 12 December 1910, ibid., doc. 2369, pp. 109–10.

76
. Forgách to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 1 April 1911, ibid., doc. 2490, p. 219.

77
. See Miroslav Spalajković,
La Bosnie et l'Herzégovine. Étude d'histoire diplomatique et de droit international
(Paris, 1897), esp. pp. 256–79, 280–316.

78
. Notes on a conversation with Descos by Jean Doulcet, St Petersburg, 8 December 1913, AMAE Papiers Jean Doulcet, vol. 23, Saint Petersbourg IV, Notes personnelles, 1912–1917.

79
. Leslie, ‘Antecedents', p. 341; on the hostility between Forgách and Spalajković, see also Friedrich Würthle,
Die Spur führt nach Belgrad
(Vienna, 1975), pp. 186–92.

80
. Tschirschky to Bethmann Hollweg, Vienna, 13 February 1910, PA-AA, R 10984.

81
. Notes on a conversation with André Panafieu, St Petersburg, 11 December 1912, AMAE Papiers Jean Doulcet, vol. 23.

82
. Strandmann,
Balkanske Uspomene
, p. 249.

83
. Malenković to Pašić, Budapest, 12 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 416, fo. 162.

84
. Andrew Lamb, ‘Léhar's
Die Lustige Witwe
– Theatrical Fantasy or Political Reality?', article in programme of
The Merry Widow
, Royal Opera, London, 1997; revised and accessible online at
http://www.josef-weinberger.com/mw/politics.html
.

85
. Egon Erwin Kisch,
Mein Leben für die Zeitung 1906–1913. Journalistische Texte 1
(Berlin and Weimar, 1983), pp. 140–42.

86
. Polivanov to Neratov, St Petersburg, 14 August 1911,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 1, part 1, doc. 318, pp. 383–4.

87
. Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, p. 321; Christopher Seton Watson,
Italy from Liberalism to Fascism, 1870–1925
(London, 1967), pp. 333–8.

88
. Seton Watson,
Italy
, p. 344.

89
. The text of Racconigi (in French and Russian) is in Narodnii komissariat po inostrannym delam (ed.),
Materialy po istorii franko-russkikh otnoshenii za 1910–1914 g.g. Sbornik sekretnykh diplomaticheskikh dokumentov byvshego Imperatorskogo rossiiskogo ministerstva inostrannykh del
(Moscow, 1922), p. 298; on the subsequent agreement between Austria-Hungary and Italy see Guido Donnino,
L'Accordo Italo-Russo di Racconigi
(Milan, 1983), pp. 273–9.

90
. čedomir Antić, ‘Crisis and Armament. Economic Relations between Great Britain and Serbia 1910–1912',
Balcanica
, 36 (2006), pp. 158–9.

91
. Aehrenthal to Szögyényi, Erlass nach Berlin, 29 December 1911,
ÖUAP
, vol. 3, doc. 3175, p. 733; Radoslav Vesnić,
Dr Milenko Vesnić, Gransenjer Srbske Diplomatije
(Belgrade, 2008), pp. 275, 280.

92
. Von Haymerle to MFA Vienna, Belgrade, 9 October 1910,
ÖUAP
, vol. 3, doc. 2266, pp. 13–14.

93
. Ugron to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 12 November 1911,
ÖUAP
, vol. 3, doc. 2911, p. 539; Ugron to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 14 November 1911, ibid., doc. 2921, pp. 545–6; Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 15 November 1911, ibid., doc. 2929, pp. 549–50.

94
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 22 November 1911, ibid., doc. 2966, p. 574; see also Ugron to Aehrenthal, Belgrade, 29 January 1912, transcribed in Barbara Jelavich, ‘What the Habsburg Government Knew about the Black Hand',
Austrian History Yearbook
, 22 (1991), pp. 131–50, here p. 141.

95
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 15 November 1911,
ÖUAP
, vol. 3, doc. 2928, p. 549; Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 15 November 1911, ibid., doc. 2929, pp. 549–50.

96
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 3 December 1911, ibid., doc. 3041, p. 627; Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 2 February 1912, ibid., doc. 3264, pp. 806–7.

97
. Ugron to MFA Vienna, Belgrade, 6 February 1912, ibid., doc. 3270, pp. 812–14.

98
. Jelavich, ‘What the Habsburg Government Knew', p. 138.

99
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 18 January 1914, transcribed in Jelavich, ‘What the Habsburg Government Knew', pp. 142–4, here p. 143.

100
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 10 May 1914, transcribed in ibid., pp. 145–7, here p. 145.

101
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 21 May 1914, transcribed in ibid., pp. 147–9, here pp. 147–8.

102
. Gellinek to Chief of General Staff, Belgrade, 21 June 1914, transcribed in ibid., pp. 149–50, here p. 150.

103
. Hugo Hantsch,
Leopold Graf Berchtold. Grandseigneur und Staatsmann
(2 vols., Graz, 1963), vol. 2, p. 489.

104
. Leon Biliński,
Wspomnienia i dokumenty
(2 vols., Warsaw, 1924), vol. 1, pp. 260–62; for a subtle analysis of this encounter, see also an unpublished manuscript chapter by Samuel R. Williamson, entitled ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary: The Final Rehearsal, October 1913', pp. 13–15. I am extremely grateful to Professor Williamson for letting me see this chapter, which helped me to understand the evolution of Austro-Serbian relations after the Second Balkan War.

105
. On Berchtold's ‘politesse exquise, mais peu sincère, léger, peu sûr de luimême, et à cause de cela réservé et peu communicatif', see Shebeko,
Souvenirs
, p. 167.

106
. Jelavich, ‘What the Habsburg Government Knew', pp. 131–50.

107
. Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, p. 386.

108
. Gellinek, Resumé on the Serbian army after its campaign against Bulgaria in the summer of 1913, cited in ibid., pp. 434–5; on Austrian assessments of Serbian military strength, see also Rudolf Jerábek,
Potiorek. General im Schatten von Sarajevo
(Graz, 1991), p. 106.

109
. For a brilliant analysis of decision-making structures in Austria-Hungary, see Leslie, ‘Antecedents', passim.

110
. Gina Countess Conrad von Hötzendorf,
Mein Leben mit Conrad von Hötzendorf
(Leipzig, 1935), p. 12.

111
. Lawrence Sondhaus,
Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf: Architect of the Apocalypse
(Boston, 2000), p. 111.

112
. Holger Herwig,
The First World War. Germany and Austria-Hungary, 1914–1918
(London, 1997), p. 10.

113
. Hans Jürgen Pantenius,
Der Angriffsgedanke gegen Italien bei Conrad von Hötzendorf. Ein Beitrag zur Koalitionskriegsführung im Ersten Weltkrieg
(2 vols., Cologne, 1984), vol. 1, pp. 350–57: Herwig,
The First World War
, pp. 9–10.

114
. Roberto Segre,
Vienna e Belgrado 1876–1914
(Milan, [1935]), p. 43.

115
. Countess Conrad von Hötzendorf,
Mein Leben mit Conrad,
p
.
44.

116
. Conrad, Memorandum of 31 December 1907, cited in Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, p. 330.

117
. Countess Conrad von Hötzendorf,
Mein Leben mit Conrad
, p. 101.

118
. Herwig,
First World War
, pp. 19–21.

119
. On Conrad's view of armed conflict, see Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 135–7, 139, 140; István Deák,
Beyond Nationalism. A Social and Political History of the Habsburg Officer Corps
(New York, 1990), p. 73; Pantenius,
Angriffsgedanke
, pp. 231, 233–6.

120
. Aehrenthal, memorandum of 22 October 1911, cited in Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 363–5.

121
. Conrad von Hötzendorf,
Aus meiner Dienstzeit, 1906–1918
(5 vols., Vienna, 1921–5), vol. 2, p. 282.

122
. Deák,
Beyond Nationalism
, p. 73.

123
. Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
, p. 336; Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
, p. 106.

124
. Rudolf Sieghart,
Die letzten Jahrzehnte einer Grossmacht
(Berlin, 1932), p. 52; Georg Franz,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand und die Pläne zur Reform der Habsburger Monarchie
(Brünn, 1943), p. 23.

125
. Lawrence Sondhaus,
The Naval Policy of Austria-Hungary 1867–1918. Navalism, Industrial Development and the Politics of Dualism
(West Lafayette, 1994), p. 176; it was the Austrian prime minister, Koerber, who used the phrase ‘shadow government', see Franz,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand
, p. 25.

126
. Cited in Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, p. 66.

127
. Lavender Cassels,
The Archduke and the Assassin
(London, 1984), p. 23; Franz,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand
, p. 18.

128
. Keith Hitchins,
The Nationality Problem in Austria-Hungary. The Reports of Alexander Vaida to Archduke Franz Ferdinand's Chancellery
(Leiden, 1974), pp. x, 8–14, 176–9 and passim.

129
. Stephan Verosta,
Theorie und Realität von Bündnissen. Heinrich Lammasch, Karl Renner und der Zweibund, 1897–1914
(Vienna, 1971), pp. 244, 258–9, 266.

130
. Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 74, 163; Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
, p. 118.

131
. Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
, pp. 104–5.

132
. Franz Ferdinand to Aehrenthal, 6 August 1908, cited in Leopold von Chlumecky,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinands Wirken und Wollen
(Berlin, 1929), p. 98.

133
. Franz Ferdinand to Aehrenthal, 20 October 1908, cited in Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 338–9.

134
. Franz Ferdinand to Major Alexander Brosch von Aarenau, 20 October 1908, cited in Chlumecky,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinands Wirken und Wollen
, p. 99; Rudolf Kiszling,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand von Österreich-Este. Leben, Pläne und Wirken am Schicksalsweg der Donaumonarchie
(Graz, 1953), pp. 127–130; Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
, p. 102.

135
. On his motives for accepting the post, see Berchtold, diary entry 2 February 1908, cited in Hantsch,
Berchtold
, vol. 1, p. 88.

136
. Ibid., p. 86.

137
. Berchtold to Aehrenthal, St Petersburg, 19 November 1908, cited in ibid., pp. 132–4.

138
. Ibid., pp. 206; for Berchtold's views on the philistinism of St Petersburg high society, see p. 233.

139
. Leslie, ‘Antecedents', p. 377.

140
. Franz Ferdinand to Berchtold, Vienna, 16 January 1913, cited in Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
, p. 342.

141
. Cited in Hantsch,
Berchtold
, vol. 1, p. 265.

142
. Report of Consul-General Jehlitschka in Üsküb, 24 October 1913, copied as annexe to Griesinger to German Foreign Office, Belgrade, 30 October, PA-AA, R14 276, cited in Katrin Boeckh,
Von den Balkankriegen zum Ersten Weltkrieg. Kleinstaatenpolitik und ethnische Selbstbestimmung auf dem Balkan
(Munich, 1996), p. 168.

143
. Jovanović to Pašić, Vienna, 6 May 1914, AS, MID – PO, 415, fo. 674.

144
. Storck to Berchtold, Belgrade, 28 October 1913, cited in Katrin Boeckh,
Von den Balkankriegen zum Ersten Weltkrieg. Kleinstaatenpolitik und ethnische Selbstbestimmung auf dem Balkan
(Munich, 1996), pp. 171–2.

145
. Giesl to MFA Vienna, Belgrade, 30 May 1914, in
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 9774, pp. 96–7.

146
. Gellinek to MFA Vienna, ibid., doc. 9883, pp. 158–9.

147
. For an English text of the Matscheko memorandum, see Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
, pp. 443–8, here p. 443.

148
. On the need for external help, see De Veer and Thomson (Dutch mission to Albania) to Netherlands Ministry of War, NA, 2.05.03, doc. 652 Algemeine Correspondentie over Albanië, Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken.

149
. All quotations from the Matscheko memorandum are from the transcription in Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
. On the paranoia expressed by the memorandum and the ‘shrillness' of its tone, see Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, pp. 165–70; on its irenic general outlook: Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
, pp. 334–5; for a different view suggesting that the objectives set out in the memorandum (namely the cooption of Romania) could not have been achieved without triggering a crisis, see Paul Schroeder, ‘Romania and the Great Powers before 1914',
Revue Roumaine d'Histoire
, 14/1 (1975), pp. 39–53.

150
. See Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 236–7; on Hötzendorf junior's involvement, see Bruce W. Menning, ‘Russian Military Intelligence, July 1914. What St Petersburg Perceived and Why It Mattered', unpublished typescript. I am extremely grateful to Professor Menning for sharing this paper with me in advance of its publication by the
Journal of Modern History
, and for discussing with me his thoughts on the place of intelligence in Russian decision-making. For Svechin's memoirs, discussed by Menning, see Mikhail Svechin,
Zapiski starogo generala o bylom
(Nice, 1964), esp. p. 99.

151
. Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, p. 146.

152
. Cited in Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
, p. 122.

153
. Von Hötzendorf,
Aus meiner Dienstzeit
, vol. 3, p. 169; Karl Bardolff,
Soldat im alten Österreich
(Jena, 1938), p. 177; Kiszling,
Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand
, p. 196.

154
. Cited in Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, p. 71.

155
. Strandmann,
Balkanske Uspomene
, pp. 245–50; for complaints by the Serbian negotiators about interventions by Pašić, see Mikhail Ilić to Pašić, Vienna, 9 March 1914; same to same, Vienna, 10 March 1914, and esp. same to same, 11 March 1914, where Ilić asks Pašić to desist from disrupting the negotiations with ‘novelties', AS, MID – PO, 415, fos. 9–12, 14–24, 25–7; on the readiness of both parties to come to an agreement, see Hartwig to Sazonov, Belgrade, 4 March 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 1, doc. 379, p. 375.