new Cold War tensions in Europe. Mao kept in close touch with Moscow on all important questions of military or political strategy, even after the complete Soviet withdrawal from Manchuria, but he was unable to secure any major long-term commitments from the Soviets to aid his revolution. Although Soviet material assistance to the CCP Japanese arms, communications equipment, money kept coming in, there is no indication that Stalin expected or intended this aid to help the CCP to victory in the civil war.
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On the contrary, Stalin was not interested in squandering scarce Soviet resources in pursuit of a revolutionary victory that he considered implausible, at least in the short term. The Kremlin preferred to continue dealing both with the CCP and the GMD government, thereby getting maximum leverage for its own short-term aims in China. Judging from Soviet contacts with both Chinese parties in this period, these aims consisted of controlling the Chinese northeastern provinces, Xinjiang, and Mongolia, or at least making sure that Western influence did not extend into these Soviet border areas. 21
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As the foundations of the Guomindang regime began crumbling in 1948, Stalin could not adjust his policy to the CCP advances. Not even after the September-October 1948 Liaoning-Shenyang campaign, in which the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) broke the government's hold on north China, was Moscow willing to make a substantial investment in the CCP. Soviet aid remained very limited, although in some areas such as radio communications, transport, and air defense Moscow's contributions did provide a critical edge to the PLA's war effort. 22
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Stalin's doubts persisted well into the spring of 1949 and spawned the first crisis in the Soviet-CCP relationship since 1945. As the PLA was racing to the South and West, and as one city after another Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin surrendered to the CCP, Stalin could not believe that some intrigue or intervention would not in the end thwart a complete Communist victory. The Guomindang could regenerate its strength in the South, Stalin feared. There could be local anti-Communist rebellions in central China and along the coast. The different armies of the PLA could start fighting each other. The Americans could issue an ultimatum not to cross the Yangzi River and threaten to use nuclear weapons. In Stalin's view, a full CCP victory was in no way assured, and the Soviet Union would have much to lose by allying itself too closely with the Chinese Communists.: 23
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An at least temporary truce along the Yangzi, while Moscow and Washington talked about China's future, would serve Soviet purposes well. A truce resulting from international negotiations would take some of the heat out of East-West confrontation after the Berlin crisis and could even give the Soviet Union a permanent say in Chinese affairs. Such a truce would enable the Soviet Union
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