Tiger's Claw: A Novel (17 page)

T
HE
W
HITE
H
OUSE
O
VAL
O
FFICE

A
SHORT TIME LATER

“I sincerely apologize for taking so long to return your phone call, Mr. President,” the voice of the Chinese translator said, speaking on behalf of People’s Republic of China President Zhou Qiang. “I have been attending several emergency meetings regarding this most unfortunate occurrence.”

“This is much more than an ‘unfortunate occurrence,’ Mr. President,” Kenneth Phoenix said angrily. With him on the conference call in the Oval Office were Vice President Ann Page, National Security Adviser William Glenbrook, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Timothy Spellings, and Secretary of State Herbert Kevich. Kevich gave the president an anxious glance, silently warning him to remain calm. “Our initial reports from the scene say that the Coast Guard search-and-rescue helicopter was pursued by a fighter launched from your aircraft carrier and was shot down without any attempt at visual identification and without any warning. That is an overt act of war, Mr. President, and I demand an explanation!”

“Please calm yourself, sir,” Zhou said. “A war is not what anyone wishes, not at all, the least of all China. I do not have a complete understanding of the situation, sir. Reports are still coming in, and the ones I have received are contradictory and incomplete. If you will please be patient, sir, I will personally brief you when I know the facts.”

“I want an explanation
now,
Mr. President!” Phoenix said. “Stalling only makes it apparent that you wish to cover up a serious act of aggression.”

“I do not think it is fair to you, myself, or the families of those affected to make any decisions or actions without first obtaining all the facts, Mr. President,” Zhou said. Phoenix tried to gauge Zhou’s truthfulness and demeanor through his own voice in the background, but could not. “I can only tell you what I have sorted out in my own mind, based on the rather disjointed reports I have been given: that it appears to be a horrible and tragic accident.”

“An ‘accident’? You launched a fighter after one of our search-and-rescue helicopters and opened fire without even attempting to identify it?”

“Those are not the facts as I understand them, Mr. President,” Zhou said. “The indications I have from the battle group commander is that he ordered a fighter to pursue a helicopter that appeared to be retrieving wreckage from the crash of your P-8 patrol plane. After repeated warnings by both the carrier and the pilot of the fighter, hostile intentions were verified, and the pilot was authorized to shoot.”

“What hostile intentions were those?”

“Reports are not absolutely clear,” Zhou said. “The helicopter refused to comply with instructions, and the fighter pilot reported he observed gunfire coming from a side door of the helicopter. Standing orders authorize our planes to return fire immediately if attacked, which he did, with tragic results. I sincerely apologize for this horrible accident, President Phoenix. This is a disaster of the highest order, and I am solely to blame.”

“I don’t buy it, Mr. President,” Phoenix said. “A Coast Guard helicopter is very hard to mistake, even at night, and our Coast Guard cutter was monitoring many frequencies and heard no such warnings.”

“I do not know about such things, Mr. President,” Zhou said. “Mine are preliminary reports from the commanders on the scene. A full investigation will be conducted and a report issued to you, I assure you.”

“I expect the People’s Liberation Army Navy to stay away from the site of our Poseidon patrol plane crash,” Phoenix said. “That aircraft carried sensitive materials that China has no right to recover.”

“Our naval forces certainly do have the right to recover anything it finds in waters owned and controlled by China, and that includes the South Sea where your plane crashed,” Zhou said. “However, in sincere apology and abject humiliation for the accidental downing of your patrol helicopter, I will order People’s Liberation Army Navy surface vessels to stay away from the crash site. We reserve the right to monitor your ships in the South Sea, of course.”

“As long as your forces do not interfere with ours, sir.”

“We will not interfere with any
peaceful
vessels or aircraft,” Zhou said. “But we recognize that with all these warships and planes operating in the waters of the South Sea, mixing in with civil and commercial traffic, accidents can and, as we have seen, do happen. I urge all parties to think and act responsibly. China stands ready to assist your rescue and recovery forces at any time, Mr. President.”

“I thank you, but that won’t be necessary, sir,” Phoenix said. “We will be conducting our own investigations, and then we will see who has been acting responsibly . . . and who has
not.
Good day, Mr. President.” And Phoenix drew a line across his throat with his thumb, and the connection was terminated.

“Bastard,” Phoenix said. “Tim, are Coast Guard helicopters armed?”

“The MH-60T Jayhawk, which are the ones usually deployed on medium- and high-endurance cutters, have machine guns to fire warning shots at suspected smugglers, and sniper rifles to take out engines of fleeing vessels,” General Spellings replied. “I don’t know if the Jayhawk that went down was a T-model, but I’m betting it was.”

“Is it possible our guys were shooting at something, and the fighter thought it was being fired upon and returned fire?” Phoenix asked.

“You don’t believe any of that load of crap Zhou was spouting, do you, sir?” Ann Page asked. “That helicopter was
deliberately
shot down, and probably the Poseidon patrol plane too. No question.”

“Why would the Chinese shoot down a Coast Guard search-and-rescue helicopter, Miss Vice President?” Secretary of State Kevich asked. “That does not make any sense.”

“I don’t know, Herbert,” Ann said. “Maybe they thought our guys found some piece of damning evidence. Maybe they just wanted to do an act that was plausibly deniable, and they found it. Maybe they just wanted to throw some weight around. You heard him: Zhou thinks the South China Sea belongs to China. If he ‘accidentally’ shoots down aircraft in ‘his’ ocean, he may think he’s completely justified.”

“I need to find out,” the president said. “If the crew of that helicopter was firing at something in the water—pirates, a ship trying to take a body, classified materials, anything—then it’s possible for that fighter to misinterpret it as an attack and open fire.”

Ann Page shook her head, not believing it for a second, but she remained silent. “I’ll find out for sure, sir,” Spellings said, “and I’ll find out what the procedures are for the helicopter crews if they did encounter something like what you describe.”

“Zhou won’t be able to throw his weight around much longer with the
George Washington
carrier strike group barreling down into ‘his’ ocean,” Vice President Page said. “But once the
George Washington
enters the South China Sea, will we regain the strategic and tactical advantage again? Obviously we were surprised and outgunned in this encounter, and it cost us a lot. Will the carrier strike group give us the military advantage again?”

Glenbrook looked exceedingly uncomfortable. “Ma’am, you know the situation as well as I,” he said finally. “China has been quickly ramping up its surface, subsurface, and air military forces in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and as far away as the Indian Ocean for almost a decade now, reinforcing their trade routes with military hardware, while the United States either has been diverting the same assets to the Middle East or cutting those forces altogether. They’ve also been building dozens of ballistic missile and cruise missile bases as far away as Africa. We used to believe that China’s navy and air forces were large but qualitatively inferior. No longer. Their quality has increased and their numbers have held steady—numerically far better than ours.”

The president turned to General Spellings, silently asking his opinion, and the four-star general nodded agreement with the national security adviser. “Zhou says China ‘owns’ and ‘controls’ the South China Sea, and he may be right, sir,” Spellings said. “To answer your question, Miss Vice President: it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to keep an aircraft carrier strike group in the South China Sea, within range of Chinese land-based bombers, ballistic antiship missiles, and cruise missiles. We could certainly hold a number of fixed Chinese targets at risk with our own sub- and surface-launched cruise missiles. But keeping a strike group in the South China Sea leaves the rest of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean uncovered. We give up a lot and don’t get any benefit. Not to mention the huge increase in world tensions with two fleets eyeing each other in relatively close proximity.”

“So let’s get another carrier strike group to cover the rest,” Ann said. “Let’s park a carrier strike group in the South China Sea, right in Zhou’s face, and have two other groups patrol the rest of that part of the world.”

“I don’t want to do that, Ann,” President Phoenix said. “I’m angry about what happened out there, and there’s no question that China wants to exert more control in the South China Sea. I’m not convinced that Zhou ordered our aircraft to be shot down, but when we lose planes and then he says China ‘owns’ the South China Sea, I’m nervous.

“But I know the effect putting one of those carrier strike groups has in a region,” the president went on. “The firepower it represents is enormous. It’s a direct challenge to any nation. A lot of fingers start hovering a lot closer to red buttons when you know there’s dozens of bombers and hundreds of cruise missiles right over the horizon.”

He thought for a moment, then said, “I need more options, people. As much as I want to, I don’t want to get in Zhou’s face and challenge his claim that China ‘owns’ and ‘controls’ the South China Sea—things are tense enough as it is. I want to keep the carrier strike groups on patrol. The
George Washington
can move into the South China Sea and assist with rescue and recovery, but then they go back on patrol and do a normal rotation. Same with the
Reagan
—when the
GW
moves out, the
Reagan
can move in, but unless something else happens, it resumes its patrol or goes back to San Diego to complete its fleet qualifications.” He turned again to Spellings. “What about aircraft, General? What do we have out there that can maintain a presence along with our carriers? What about long-range bombers?”

“As you know, sir, our long-range heavy bomber forces were nearly wiped out in the American Holocaust and the ensuing counterattacks over Russia,” Spellings said. “That left us with just a handful of survivors that had been deployed to bases that weren’t hit by the Russians. Over the years we de-emphasized manned air-breathing bombers and started to develop the next generation of unmanned bombers and space-based attack, but when the super-recession hit, all funding for new, untested programs went away.” Kenneth Phoenix averted his eyes, his mouth a hard line—he knew he was the one most responsible for killing all the expensive, untried defense programs since taking office.

“Nowadays most of the surviving bombers are rotated to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, the airfield at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and other countries in the Pacific that allow armed attack aircraft to use their facilities, such as Australia,” Spellings went on. “But it’s a very thin force: usually only five or six bombers are deployed, with the others preparing to deploy or just coming back from a deployment.”

“My God,” Ann breathed. “We used to have hundreds of bombers; during World War Two, we had thousands. Now we have less than a couple
dozen
?”

“We still have a number of tactical fighter-bombers that can be set up for long-range patrols, but unless we secured agreements from friendly countries that border the South China Sea, our available land bases are just too far away,” Spellings said.

“And those countries that border or directly interact with China are very unlikely to allow American strike aircraft access to their bases, for fear of losing trade and friendly diplomatic relations with China,” Secretary of State Kevich reminded everyone. “Their relations with China are at least as important, and in some cases
more
important, than their relations with us.”

“What would it take to use fighters like the Eagles and Hornets over the South China Sea, General?” the president asked.

“Even with extensive aerial refueling tanker support, an aircraft such as an F-15E Strike Eagle would have to be loaded up with two and perhaps three external fuel tanks, which decreases its weapons load,” Spellings went on. “An aircraft such as the smaller, lighter single-engine F-16 Fighting Falcon would be under even more constraints. It would be a monumental task for even a more modern aircraft such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet or F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter.”

“But those crews have done it all before, General, haven’t they?” Kevich asked. “What about Iraq and Afghanistan? They flew long sorties out there, too.”

“They had to do a lot of flying, sir, no question,” Spellings replied, “but the distances in the Middle East and Southwest Asia were nowhere near as great as what we’re talking about in the Pacific. It’s fifteen hundred miles one-way from Guam to the middle of the South China Sea—that’s a three-hour cruise just to get to the patrol area, assuming the Philippines gives us overflight permission. Navy and Marine Corps carrier planes used against targets in Iraq during Desert Storm and over Afghanistan in Operation Enduring Freedom only had to fly about one hour or so to get to the target area, and that was a lot for guys who had to tank often, go into combat, tank again, and then land on a carrier deck afterward.” Spellings hesitated for a moment, looking at the others, then to the president: “There may be another option to consider, sir.”