Return to Winter: Russia, China, and the New Cold War Against America (43 page)

WHAT TO DO

RUSSIA

       
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The United States and Europe must work with the new government of Ukraine to develop economic, political, and military partnerships that will guarantee Ukraine’s continued independence from Russia.

       
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Western leaders must make clear that any further disruption of democracy in Ukraine, the Baltics, or elsewhere in Europe will be met with stiff sanctions against the Russian energy sector. If Putin refuses to engage democratically elected leaders in Eastern Europe, the West should increase its material support for pro-democracy activists in Russia.
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The United States should initiate sweeping sanctions against companies with ties to the Russian state that operate in America, and we should consider cutting trade ties entirely. Additionally, there must be serious consideration of the “nuclear option” of sanctions: cutting Russian financial institutions off from the SWIFT international transactions system.
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This step, currently in use against Iran, would cut Russia off from global financial markets and devastate its economy.

       
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All European states should reduce their dependence on Russian energy sources, preferably by supplanting them with American liquefied natural gas (LNG).

       
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America should ease restrictions on special-issue visas—such as the O-1A and the EB-5—that would let Russians emigrate more easily. This would allow any Russian with a clean criminal
record and either a doctorate or $5 million deposited in the U.S. to get a visa and come here. The results for Putin would be disastrous.
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NATO must return to its original purpose: collective defense against interstate violence in Europe. NATO should focus on enhanced internal security, homeland security, training, intelligence, early warning, cybersecurity, and public-diplomacy capacities.
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America and Europe should continue to support the sovereignty and independence of states that have stood up to Putin, such as Georgia and Moldova. This means fast-tracking trade deals, continuing and increasing military cooperation and support, as well as cultural and governmental exchanges, including visits by high-profile Western politicians and dignitaries.

       
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The United States must put a halt to its dependence on Russian technology for space travel and launching spy satellites. Moscow’s announcement that it will deny American access to the International Space Station starting in 2020, and bar export of rocket engines to the United States, is simply an outrageous provocation—and the United States must answer it in kind.

       
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As Putin’s censorship of the Russian Internet grows, the West must step in to provide alternate venues for expression and discussion, such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe. The West should boost funding for these organizations and promote the creation of new venues for Russia’s pro-democracy activists.

WHAT TO DO

CHINA

       
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China’s southern neighbors need a coordinated response to Beijing’s aggression that puts an end to China’s habit of redrawing borders by force. This would mean taking steps to reinforce the defensive capacities of allies and partners as they guard against Chinese coercion. We must firmly uphold international maritime law and strengthen the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a force for positive consensus and cooperation among allies. We should also facilitate cooperation, where possible, between our allies and China.
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The United States must ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Being one of the few UN member states not to do so diminishes our ability to protect our Pacific allies and balance China in the South China Sea. Taking this step will give the U.S. and our allies a stronger legal claim if we must use force in future confrontations.
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In the East China Sea, the United States must remain credible in its treaty obligations to defend Japanese territory, including the disputed Senkaku Islands. America should forcefully discourage Chinese aggression but also encourage responsibility and level-headedness—reassuring Beijing that a prosperous and secure China is in the world’s best interest.
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Western sanctions against Chinese companies and banks could turn the tide against China’s neocolonial agenda in the developing world. Chinese companies abroad, especially
in developing-world countries, have exported the poor labor conditions, human-rights abuses, and corporate irresponsibility that typify so much of China’s economy. The mining and other resource-extraction operations that Chinese state banks finance, particularly in Africa, are the subject of much local protest that rarely translates into any improvement in circumstances.
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The Chinese must be persuaded either of the wisdom of withdrawing support from North Korea or the cost of failing to do so. Without Chinese cooperation, American and European efforts to isolate North Korea are unlikely to succeed.

       
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American and European leaders should take a more public stance against China’s mistreatment of its own citizens. China’s human-rights record is one of the worst in the world, with thousands executed every year, hundreds of thousands imprisoned without trial, and nearly all of China’s 1.4 billion citizens denied basic freedom of expression.
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Some Chinese companies benefit from child labor and slave-like work conditions, as do the Chinese banks that fund these heinous practices.
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When Chinese companies and financial institutions violate basic concepts of human dignity, they should face serious consequences—including loss of access to Western consumer and capital markets.

       
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Most Chinese have access only to heavily censored state-run media. Free news sources, such as Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, battle to overcome jamming and blocking by China’s state censors. They make a huge impact on an approximately $700 million annual budget; increasing that
budget by $100–$200 million would help them continue to promote a free society and independent media in China.
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In May, the FBI charged five members of China’s elite cyber-espionage military unit with spying. This should be only a start, however. In addition to charging more of China’s cyber spies, the U.S. should release the names of Chinese companies that hired this military unit to conduct corporate espionage, and the U.S. should issue sanctions against these companies.
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WHAT TO DO

THE NEW AXIS

       
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The New Axis is emboldened by declining American military might. Rebuilding our armed forces sends a strong message that, whether in Eastern Europe or the East China Sea, America’s military capabilities remain unequalled in the world.

       
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International election monitors from organizations such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) should receive increased funding and support—OSCE by its member states, NED by USAID. Their services should be made readily available to Ukraine and other fledgling democracies. In addition, America should push the United Nations to develop a new standard for monitoring and certifying elections, so that autocrats like Putin can no longer falsely claim democratic legitimacy.

       
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The West should redouble its efforts to support embattled journalists in China, Russia, Iran, and elsewhere. Just as the Magnitsky Act punishes Russian officials who engage in corrupt and criminal activity, politicians who are complicit in the persecution or silencing of journalists should be barred from traveling to the West, and their access to Western financial, cultural, and political institutions severely limited. China and Russia have signed a historic $400 billion dollar gas deal that will deepen their economic partnership; but for now, China does far more business with the West than with Russia. We
must make clear that if China continues to make deals with Putin while he threatens his neighbors, Western governments will discourage investment in and trade with China’s increasingly rickety economy—while promoting other investment destinations such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and India.

       
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Russia continues to provide diplomatic cover for Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians in Syria. As the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, the United States must consider hard-power options to prevent further chemical attacks.

       
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Buying Iranian oil directly or in bartered swaps, Russia and China supply Tehran with critical equipment and goods, and they thus help Iran circumvent UN sanctions.
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Wherever possible, illegal Russian and Chinese deals with Iran should be met with offsetting sanctions and penalties against companies linked to the regimes of these countries.

       
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In light of recent IAEA revelations involving Iran’s potential violations of the nuclear deal it struck with the U.S. in 2013, the United States should postpone any further compliance with the terms and conditions of the deal until a comprehensive investigation can determine whether Iran is following the agreement.
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Since 2008, the United States has made unilateral moves to shrink our nuclear arsenal and weaken the nuclear triad of bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles that protected us during the Cold War. Meanwhile Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are rapidly expanding their nuclear capabilities. There is no strategic logic to current American nuclear policy, and we must return to a level of readiness commensurate with the dangerous nuclear landscape we face.

WHAT TO DO

Rebuilding Alliances

       
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The U.S. and E.U. should complete negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, creating a U.S.-E.U. free-trade zone. In light of stunning anti-E.U. and anti-Atlanticist victories in European elections, a Transatlantic free-trade zone would reaffirm the common values and vision that unite the West, and reassure Europe that America remains committed to a close and mutually prosperous relationship.

       
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The U.S. should push NATO member states to strengthen their military presence in continental Europe and other NATO territory—perhaps on a rotational basis—to act as a deterrent against aggressors and enhance the security of all European member states.
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Strong U.S. action on Syria, such as improving efforts to intercept Iranian arms shipments to Assad, will reassure embattled American allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. We need to prove to these increasingly skeptical Sunni countries that America can lead in the Middle East and prevent Iran from dominating the region.

       
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The U.S. should encourage Japan to take steps toward responsible remilitarization while we continue to support our Asian allies with a strong American military presence.
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Japan and South Korea have a common interest in ensuring that their territorial waters are respected by a fast-growing Chinese navy that has little regard for internationally recognized
borders. The United States should serve as a facilitator for Japan and South Korea to coordinate naval strategy, and endeavor to build trust between the two countries until they are comfortable cooperating with each other bilaterally.
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Japan and South Korea also have a common interest in protecting against North Korean aggression. As Pyongyang plans its fourth nuclear test, the U.S. should allow Japan and South Korea to develop their own joint missile-defense system to complement the existing system run by the United States. This step would help the two American allies, still leery of each other, to devise joint strategic goals and increase intelligence sharing.
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The U.S. should install cutting-edge THAAD missile-defense systems in South Korea. This will not only deter further North Korean aggression; it will also have the added benefit of balancing against Chinese military power while Beijing continues to improve its own nuclear and missile capabilities.
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