Colossus (65 page)

69
. Matthew,
Gladstone
, vol. 2, p. 135.

70
. Calculated from figures in Crouchley,
Economic Development
, p. 274ff.

71
. Calculated from the figures in Stone,
Global Export of Capital
.

72
. Fieldhouse, “For Richer, for Poorer,” p.121.

73
. Their lot was far from disagreeable; see Lawrence Durrell’s intoxicating
Alexandria Quartet
of novels.

74
. All statistics from Mitchell,
International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia, Oceania
.

75
. According to a briefing in February 2004: by Lorenzo Perez, head of the IMF’s Iraq mission team, loans to Iraq may be possible in the second half of 2004: IMF Survey, 33, 2, February 2, 2004, p. 18.

76
. See Krasner, “Troubled Societies” and his
Organized Hypocrisy
.

77
. Ashdown, “Broken Communities.”

CHAPTER 7: “IMPIRE”: EUROPE BETWEEN BRUSSELS AND BYZANTIUM

1
. Glennon, “Why the Security Council Failed.”

2
. Chris Patten, “The State of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership,” Trilateral Commission, October 20, 2002.

3
. George Parker and Daniel Dombey, “Berlusconi Eyes Bigger E.U. Role on World Stage,”
Financial Times
, July 1, 2003.

4
. Timothy Garton Ash, “The Peril of Too Much Power,”
New York Times
, April 9, 2002.

5
. “A European Armaments, Research and Military Capabilities Agency shall be established to identify operational requirements, to promote measures to satisfy those requirements, to contribute to identifying and, where appropriate, implementing any measure needed to strengthen the industrial and technological base of the defense sector, to participate in defining a European capabilities and armaments policy, and to assist the Council of Ministers in evaluating the improvement of military capabilities”: European Convention, “Draft Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe,” CONV 850/03, Brussels, July 18, 2003.

6
. See, e.g., Andrew Sullivan, “The Euro Menace: The USE vs. the USA,”
Sunday Times
, June 16, 2003.

7
. Robert Kagan, “Power and Weakness,”
Policy Review
(2002). Cf. Kagan,
Of Paradise and Power
.

8
. France is, by a considerable margin, the world’s most popular tourist destination, accounting for more than 10 percent of all international tourist arrivals in 2000: World Tourist Organization. The second most popular is the United States, but the third, fourth and fifth places go to EU members: Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom.

9
. Huntington, “Lonely Superpower.”

10
. Kupchan,
End of the American Era
, pp.119, 132.

11
. “Washington today, like Rome then, enjoys primacy, but is beginning to tire of the burdens of hegemony…. And Europe today, like Byzantium then, is emerging as an independent center of power, dividing a unitary realm in two”: ibid., pp. 131, 153.

12
. Cooper, “Postmodern State.”

13
. Joseph Nye, “The New Rome Meets the New Barbarians: How America Should Wield Its Power,”
Economist
, March 23, 2002. See also Joseph Nye, “Lessons in Imperialism,”
Financial Times
, June 16, 2002. Cf. Bergsten, “American and Europe.”

14
. Mearsheimer,
Tragedy
, p. 385.

15
. Paul M. Kennedy, “What Hasn’t Changed Since September 11
^th
,”
Los Angeles Times
, September 11, 2002.

16
. Calculated from the figures in the World Bank’s World Development database.

17
. Depending on the measure used, EU output will rise by between 3 and 9 percent.

18
. Figures from Maddison,
World Economy
.

19
. According to figures for 1999 from Eurostat.

20
. Danthine et al., “European Financial Markets After EMU,” table 2.2.

21
. Figures from the Bank for International Settlements. This was in fact predicted by the BIS: McCauley and White, “The Euro and European Financial Markets.”

22
. Figures from Economagic, OECD.

23
.
Economist
, April 12, 2003, p. 100.

24
. Al Jazeera, July 2002.

25
. European Convention, “Draft Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe,” CONV 850/03, Brussels, July 18, 2003.

26
. Michael Pinto-Duchinsky, “All in the Translation,”
Times Literary Supplement
, June 13, 2003.

27
. “Snoring While a Superstate Emerges,”
Economist
, May 10, 2003, p. 42.

28
. Richard Baldwin and Mike Widgren, “Europe’s Voting Reform Will Shift Power Balance,”
Financial Times
, June 22, 2003.

29
. Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Views of a Changing World,” June 2003.

30
. “America’s Image Further Erodes, Europeans Want Weaker Ties,” Pew Research Center, March 2003.

31
. The pro-American percentages currently stand at 70 in Britain, 43 in France, 60 in Italy, 45 in Germany and 38 in Spain.

32
. “Contradictions,”
Economist
, April 12, 2003.

33
. Statistics from various Eurobarometer surveys at
http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion/archives.

34
. Calculated from figures in the CIA
World Factbook.

35
. Calculated from figures published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

36
. Figures from the Center for Global Development.

37
. David Roodman, “An Index of Donor Aid Performance,” Center for Global Development, April 2003.

38
. The results can be found in
Foreign Policy
, May/June 2003.

39
. Coker,
Empires in Conflict
, p. 38f.

40
. “Revitalising Old Europe,”
Economist
, March 15, 2003, p. 91.

41
. Ferguson and Kotlikoff, “Degeneration of EMU,” pp. 110–21.

42
. See Milward,
European Rescue.

43
. Figures from Maddison,
World Economy
, table B-22.

44
. International Monetary Fund,
World Economic Outlook
, April 2003.

45
. Figures from the International Monetary Fund.

46
. Figures from the OECD (standardized unemployment rates).

47
. “Europe’s Heavyweight Weakling,”
Economist
, June 7, 2003, p. 44.

48
.
Economist
, March 22, 2003, p. 120. International measures of productivity are controversial, but even after one adjusts for the differences in statistical methods between the United States and the European Union, it is clear that labor productivity rose in the United States during the 1990s and declined in the EU: ibid., November 16, 2002, p. 100.

49
. Evans et al., “Trends in Working Hours in OECD Countries.”

50
. “Revitalising Old Europe,”
Economist
, March 15, 2003, p. 91.

51
.
Economist
, May 3, 2003, p. 108.

52
. European Convention, “Draft Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe,” CONV 850/03, Brussels, July 18, 2003.

53
. The EU will stop paying production-linked subsidies to arable farmers, but member states may continue to pay subsidies up to a specified percentage of past payments—up to a quarter in the case of cereals—if they wish: Rory Watson, “E.U. Hails New Era of Healthy Food and Green Living,”
Times
, June 27, 2003. The total amount spent on the CAP will continue at around $50 billion until 2013: Tobias Buck, Guy de Jonquiéres and Frances Williams, “Fischler’s New Era for Europe Farmers,”
Finanial Times
, June 27, 2003.

54
. Lea Paterson, “Farm-fresh Chance for Reform in Enlargement,”
Times
, July 29, 2003.

55
.
Economist
, May 27, 2003.

56
. Subsidies to American agriculture, most of which go to around four hundred thousand farmers, rose from $7.3 billion in 1996 to $22.9 billion in 2000. The 2002 farm bill restored the link between farm subsidies and production and will raise the total subsidy to American agriculture by around 22 percent compared with the 1996–2001 average. See in general Runge, “Agrivation,” p. 86f.

57
. At the time of writing, consumer price inflation in Greece was 3.8 percent per annum—the highest rate in the Eurozone—compared with just 0.7 percent in Germany, the lowest rate.

58
. German interest rates were around 2.5 percent on the eve of the monetary union. Thereafter Germany had to adjust to the Eurozone-wide discount rate of 4.5 percent. Only in 2003 did rates return to their pre-1999 levels.

59
. Figures from the Bundesbank.

60
. “A Boom Out of Step,”
Economist
, May 29, 2003. Cf. Posen, “Frog in the Pot”; Martin Feldstein, “Britain Must Avoid Germany’s Mistake,”
Financial Times
, April 22, 2003.

61
. I am grateful to my student Michael Darcy for his work on this question.

62
. Anatole Kaletsky, “How Blair Has Priced Britain Out of the Euro,”
Times
, June 12, 2003.

63
. Martin Wolf, “The Benefits of Euro Entry Will Be Modest,”
Financial Times
, May 12, 2003.

64
. Begg et al., “Sustainable Regimes of Capital Movements.”

65
. Figures from the International Monetary Fund,
World Economic Outlook
.

66
. Milward,
European Rescue
.

67
. “Giscard Plan for President Enters Most Divisive Phase,”
Financial Times
, April 22, 2003.

68
. Details can be found in Milward,
European Rescue
.

69
. Niall Ferguson, “The Cash Fountains of Versailles,”
Spectator
, August 14, 1993, pp. 14–16. Between 1958 and 1994 Germany paid 163 billion marks to the rest of Europe in form of net contributions to the European Economic Community/European Union budget, more (in nominal terms) than the total amount of reparations demanded at London in 1921.

70
. Britain is the exception that proves the rule. Voters there seem not to have noticed that their country ceased to be a significant net contributor in 1984, when Margaret Thatcher secured an ongoing rebate of a substantial proportion of Britain’s payments.

71
.
Economist
, March 1, 2003.