The Future (65 page)

Two other demographic realities should also command priority attention: The continued urbanization of the world’s population should be seen as an opportunity to integrate sustainability into the design and construction of low-carbon, low-energy buildings, the use of sustainable architecture and design to make urban spaces more efficient and productive,
and the redesign of urban transportation systems to minimize both energy use and pollution flows. And second, the aging of populations in the advanced economies—and in some emerging markets, like China—should be seen as an opportunity for the redesign of health strategies and income support programs in order to take into account the higher dependency ratios that threaten the viability of using payroll taxes as the principal source of funding for these programs.

With respect to the revolution in the life sciences, we should place priority on the development of safeguards against unwise permanent alterations in the human gene pool. Now that we have become the principal agents of evolution, it is crucially important to recognize that the pursuit of short-term goals through human modification can be dangerously inconsistent with the long-term best interests of the human species. As yet, however, we have not developed adequate criteria—much less decision-making protocols—for use in guiding such decisions. We must do so quickly.

Similarly, the dominance of the profit motive and corporate power in decisions about the genetic modification of animals and plants—particularly those that end up in the food supply—are beginning to create unwise risks. Commonsense procedures to analyze these risks according to standards that are based on the protection of the long-term public interest are urgently needed.

The continued advance of technological development will bring many blessings, but human values must be preserved as we evaluate the deployment and use of powerful new technologies. Some advances warrant caution and careful oversight: the proliferation of nanomaterials, synthetic life-forms, and surveillance drones are examples of new technologies rife with promise and potential, but in need of review and safeguards.

There are already several reckless practices that should be immediately stopped: the sale of deadly weapons to groups throughout the world; the use of antibiotics as a livestock growth stimulant; drilling for oil in the vulnerable Arctic Ocean; the dominance of stock market trading by supercomputers with algorithms optimized for high-speed, high-frequency trades that create volatility and risk of market disruptions; and utterly insane proposals for blocking sunlight from reaching the Earth as a strategy to offset the trapping of heat by ever-mounting levels of global warming pollution. All of these represent examples of muddled and dangerous
thinking. All should be seen as test cases for whether or not we have the will, determination, and stamina to create a future worthy of the next generations.

Finally, the world community desperately needs leadership that is based on the deepest human values. Though this book is addressed to readers in the world at large, it is intended to carry a special and urgent message to the citizens of the United States of America, which remains the only nation capable of providing the kind of global leadership needed.

For that reason, and for the pride that Americans ought to feel in what the United States has represented to humanity for more than two centuries, it is crucial to halt the degradation and decline of America’s commitment to a future in which human dignity is cherished and human values are protected and advanced. Two priority goals for those who wish to take action are limiting the role of money in politics and reforming outdated and obfuscatory legislative rules that allow a small minority to halt legislative action in the U.S. Senate.

Human civilization has reached a fork in the road we have long traveled. One of two paths must be chosen. Both lead us into the unknown. But one leads toward the destruction of the climate balance on which we depend, the depletion of irreplaceable resources that sustain us, the degradation of uniquely human values, and the possibility that civilization as we know it would come to an end. The other leads to the future.

I
AM GRATEFUL FOR THE SUPPORT, ENCOURAGEMENT, AND LOVE OF MY
partner, Elizabeth Keadle, during the writing of this book, for her advice while reading and listening to successive drafts of every chapter, and for her particular insights into the life sciences chapter. Special thanks also to my brother-in-law, Frank Hunger, whose constant wise counsel and lifelong friendship have been so important to me throughout this project; and to my entire family for their encouragement and support.

This book would not have been possible without my extremely able research team, Brad Hall and Alex Lamballe, whose dedication, diligence, loyalty, and skill are exceptional in every way. I also want to thank their families for their understanding and support during the long hours of work that often spilled over into the weekends and holidays that were a significant part of the time I have devoted to writing this book over the last two years. Their character, good humor, stamina, and grit are impressive and greatly appreciated. For the initial stage of the research, Adam Abelkop was also of invaluable help, and I am especially grateful for his willingness to postpone his doctoral program to be a part of this project. After Adam’s sabbatical was over, Dan Myers, on my staff in Nashville, pitched in often, always with a commitment to excellent research.

As I wrote in the Introduction, this book had its origin eight years ago when I began to focus on the drivers of global change and started collecting ideas and research. I regarded the initial detailed outline as primarily a personal exploration of an unusually compelling question, and I was gratified that it also turned out to have practical value as an
input to the investing road map that my partners and I used at Generation Investment Management in launching a new initiative in “sustainable investing.” I am particularly grateful to my Generation co-founder, David Blood, and all of my other Generation partners for the conversations over the years that have enriched my understanding of so many of these issues.

As I continued to elaborate on the outline, I began to think it might have value to a larger audience, but it was not until Jon Meacham decided to join Random House as a senior editor that I actually set out to write this book. Upon reading that news, I called my agent, Andrew Wylie (to whom I also once again express my gratitude here), and told him why I thought Jon was the perfect editor for this book. The three of us met in New York to discuss the idea, and a week later the project was launched. Upon its completion, I can say without exaggeration that I could not have written it without Jon, who has become a close friend and neighbor in Nashville. His wisdom, insights, and guidance have, unsurprisingly, been truly extraordinary. Thanks also to Gina Centrello, Susan Kamil, Tom Perry, Beck Stvan, Ben Steinberg, London King, Sally Marvin, Steve Messina, Benjamin Dreyer, Erika Greber, Dennis Ambrose, and the entire editorial, production, and marketing team at Random House.

Graham Allison, my close friend and a mentor for forty-five years, organized a two-day scoping exercise at the Belfour Center of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard after the initial stage of research two years ago. I am extremely grateful to Graham and the extraordinary group of other thinkers who generously took the time (and in many cases traveled long distances) to spend two days in Cambridge in intensive and stimulating discussions of the issues covered in the outline: Rodney Brooks, David Christian, Leon Fuerth, Danny Hillis, Mitch Kapor, Freada Kapor Klein, Ray Kurzweil, Joseph Nye, Dan Schrag, and Fred Spier.

I am also indebted to the distinguished group of expert reviewers who took the time to read parts or all of the first draft of the manuscript. Their assistance in correcting mistakes, suggesting additional material, providing nuance, and aiding my understanding of subjects about which they have forgotten more than I will ever learn is deeply appreciated: Graham Allison, Rosina Bierbaum, Vint Cerf, Bob Corell, Herman Daly, Jared Diamond, Harvey Fineberg, Dargan Frierson, Danny Hillis, Rattan
Lal, Mike MacCracken, Dan Schrag, Beth Seidenberg, Laura Tyson, and E. O. Wilson.

In addition, numerous experts generously spent time in lengthy conversations during the research process, including Ragui Assaad, Judy Baker, Thomas Buettner, Andrew Cherlin, Katherine Curtis, Richard Hodes, Paul Kaplowitz, David Owen, Hans Rosling, Saskia Sassen, Annemarie Schneider, Joni Seager, and Audrey Singer.

I sometimes read statements by authors in the acknowledgments sections of their books to the effect that those to whom they are grateful for help bear no responsibility for any mistakes that remain. That sentiment certainly applies to this book.

I also want to thank Maggie Fox, CEO of the Climate Reality Project; Joel Hyatt, my co-founder and CEO of Current TV; and John Doerr, managing partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, along with David Blood at Generation and my colleagues at all four organizations, not only for their support and encouragement, but also for their patience in sometimes adjusting the schedule for calls and meetings to accommodate the time I have taken to work on this book, especially over the past two years.

(Disclosure: in addition to Generation Investment Management, there are 9 other firms, among the 120 mentioned in the text, in which I have a direct or indirect investment: Apple, Auxogyn, Citizens Bank, Coursera, Facebook, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Kaiima, and Twitter.)

Special thanks to Matt Taylor for loaning me a set of very cool gigantic whiteboards for the duration of this project.

Finally, Beth Alpert, chief of staff in my personal office in Nashville, was in overall charge of coordinating the team that helped to produce this book, even as she continued managing my other ongoing activities. Every member of my staff contributed time and effort to making this book possible: Joey Schlichter, Claudia Huskey, Lisa Berg, Betsy McManus, Jill Martin, Kristy Jeffers, Jessica Cox, and, during the early phases of the work, Kalee Kreider, Patrick Hamilton, and Alex Thorpe. And Bill Simmons went way beyond the call of duty in preparing terrific meals during the innumerable working sessions in Nashville throughout this long process. Thank you all!