The Future (63 page)

T
HE PERSONAL JOURNEY
I
HAVE TAKEN IN WRITING THIS BOOK BEGAN
with that single question which demanded an answer more thoughtful than the one I first offered. My search for a better answer has led me to new questions that also demand answers—especially from political, business, civic, and faith leaders around the world.

To begin with,
who are we?
The initial answer, once again, is readily available: we are
Homo sapiens
. “Beings that
know
.” The usual suspects. We have been on a very long journey already—from forests to savannahs to farms to megacities; from two to thousands to millions to billions; from stones to plows to assembly lines to nanobots; from syllables to encyclopedias to airwaves to the Global Mind; from families to tribes to communities to nations.

But that is the way we
have
been. Where our journey takes us next will depend upon what kind of beings we humans choose to be. To put it another way, our decision about the way we choose to live will determine whether the journey takes
us
, or whether
we
take the journey.

The currents of change are so powerful that some have long since taken their oars out of the water, having decided that it is better to surrender,
enjoy the ride, and hope for the best—even as those currents sweep us along faster and faster toward the rapids ahead that are roaring so deafeningly we can hardly hear ourselves think.

“Rapids?” they shout above the din. “What rapids? Don’t be ridiculous; there
are
no rapids. Everything is fine!” There is anger in the shouting, and some who are intimidated by the anger learn never to mention the topic that triggers it. They are browbeaten into keeping the peace by avoiding any mention of the forbidden subject.

For now at least, that is how some in the news media behave. They are terrified to even utter certain words—like “climate,” for example—lest they trigger rage from those who don’t want to hear about the destructive changes gaining momentum. The result is an almost pathological silence concerning the most important challenges we face, and a dangerous collective disregard for the future consequences of our present actions. But ultimately, that is not really who we are.

Anyone who spends time thinking about the possibilities of a better future must first make an assumption about human nature. Idealists who want and hope for the best sometimes make the mistake of thinking that intrinsic human nature can change, and will improve according to their hopes. Cynics enjoy catching that mistake and pointing out that human nature doesn’t change at all.

My own way of thinking about human nature is neither idealistic nor cynical. I believe there is a difference between
intrinsic
human nature—which I agree does not change, and the aspects of human nature we routinely
express
, which can and do change. The 35,000-year-old
paintings in the caves at Chauvet, in France, and the figurines made by our ancient ancestors in Eurasia and Africa, clearly reflect a consciousness and sensibility not very different—perhaps not intrinsically different at all—from our own. But in other ways, we are very different indeed.

We are each individuals, but as all of our major faith traditions teach us, we are all connected to one another. And science teaches us that human nature is inherently social. The social groups to which we belong have their own form of evolution. Some behaviors and norms survive from one generation to the next and others are discouraged. Habits and customs become rituals and rules, which evolve over time into cultures, social systems, laws and institutions, and which exercise a profound influence over which aspects of human nature we express.

Consider what we have learned about the human genome: even
though
99.9 percent of them are identical in every human being,
our 23,000 genes—and
millions of proteins—contain a universe of possibilities. Some genes are expressed while others remain inchoate, vestigial. Sometimes, capacities that evolved in the distant past are awakened for new purposes when our circumstances change. Consider also what neuroscientists have learned about the human brain: neuron trees grow dense and vibrant when they are used; others atrophy when they are not.

Some have long believed that the most important strategy for empowering the “better angels of our nature” is education. And while I certainly agree that high-quality, universal education is not only desirable but essential, it is not sufficient. Some of the worst atrocities in human history have been organized and perpetrated by well-educated villains.

Ignorance and misunderstanding are certainly enemies of genuine progress, just as knowledge, integrity, and character are crucial to our success. But the evolution of our collective behaviors, and the emergence of a genuine understanding of how deeply our connected fates are intertwined with the health of the ecological system of the Earth, will depend upon the choices we make about the structure of the systems we use. The way we measure what we do and the results of our actions, the way we communicate with one another, and the incentives and disincentives we build into our political, economic, and social systems all have a powerful influence on the future.

Behaviors that bring rewards become more common. Those that don’t diminish. The elements of our nature that are activated by rewarded behaviors gain strength. Social groups establish values that reflect both the behaviors they wish to reward and those they want to discourage. These values become embedded in tribes, communities, nations, economic systems, institutions, and cultures.

I fall back on the example that inspired me and has inspired people throughout the world for more than two centuries: the enduring genius of the U.S. Constitution stemmed from its authors’ clear-eyed, dead-on understanding of human nature—even though it was limited to white males—and their design of structural safeguards that discouraged the impulse to egotistical power-seeking and incentives that rewarded the impulse to resolve their differences through collective reasoning that maximized the likelihood of creative compromises based on the pursuit of the greater good.

The separation of powers and checks and balances woven into the
design of the Constitution embodied a sophisticated understanding of how to discourage some behaviors inherent in human nature and encourage positive ones instead. Others have tried to structure economic systems with incentives that unleash creativity and dynamism, encourage behaviors deemed of value, and discourage other behaviors that are destructive to the common good.

Over time, we have come to recognize that the way we measure economic value also exerts a kind of evolutionary force on behavior—and that the things not measured at all are ignored as if they have no value, either positive or negative. When we change the measurements of value, the nature of the incentives, and the structure of the systems we use for making political, economic, and social decisions, we inevitably encourage the expression of some aspects of human nature and discourage others. So while intrinsic human nature may not change, the
expressions
of human nature—the aspects of our nature manifested in our behaviors and choices—can and do change readily in response to the incentives we establish as a basis for civilization. And they shape our future.

If we signal to business, for example, that unlimited pollution will incur no cost or penalty, it is of little use to then decry them as immoral when they respond predictably to the incentives we give them. When we signal to our politicians that victory in elections is best assured by spending most of their time asking for large sums of money from people and corporations that have special agendas for the shaping of public policies after the election, we incentivize politicians to express in their behavior negative aspects of human nature familiar to all of us—because they are intrinsic to all of us—even though most of us suppress them and understand fully why we should be discouraging the soft bribery and betrayal of the public trust that predictably results.

More serious problems arise when those who benefit from these distorted incentives and dysfunctional rules manage to gain sufficient political power to prevent reforms that would encourage the aspects of human nature that we want to see manifested in political and economic decision making.

Long periods of stability, which most of us naturally prefer, can enhance the vulnerability of any political or economic system to exploitation by those who have learned to distort its rules and incentives. Decades ago, the late University of Maryland political economist Mancur Olson published an extensive analysis of how elites in any society come to accumulate
a steadily larger share of wealth and influence, and then use it to block reforms of the
incentives and rules that work to their advantage.

Consider the vulnerability of monocultured crops to the steady evolution of pests who learn to circumvent the natural defenses of the plants to eat their fill. Consider the vulnerability of computer systems to hackers when the passwords and other safeguards remain unchanged for an extended period of time. The intrinsic nature of the pests doesn’t change. Their learned behaviors—and the genes they express—do.

Democracy and capitalism have both been hacked. The results are palpably obvious in the suffocating control of policy decisions by elites, the ever increasing inequalities of income and growing concentrations of wealth, and the paralysis of any efforts at reform. And the public’s ability to express their revulsion in more constructive ways, rather than surrendering to cynicism, is dampened by the structure of our dominant means of mass communication, television, which serves mainly to promote consumption of products and entertain the public, while offering no means for interactive dialogue and collaborative decision making.

Fortunately, the awakening of the Global Mind is disrupting established patterns—creating exciting new opportunities for emergent centers of influence not controlled by elites and the potential for reforms in established dysfunctional behaviors. Yet the emergence of Earth Inc. has magnified the power and reach of our economic engines, even as it has hardened the incentives, measurements of value, and rules of behavior that reward unsustainable exploitation of limited resources, the destruction of ecosystems crucial to the survival of civilization, unlimited flows of pollution, and the disregard of human and social values.

The outcome of the struggle to shape humanity’s future that is now beginning will be determined by a contest between the Global Mind and Earth Inc. In a million theaters of battle, the reform of rules and incentives in markets, political systems, institutions, and societies will succeed or fail depending upon how quickly individuals and groups committed to a sustainable future gain sufficient strength, skill, and resolve by connecting with one another to express and achieve their hopes and dreams for a better world.

Here are the most important questions to be answered and battles to be won:

Can Americans reestablish the healthy functioning of the U.S. political and economic system to the point where it can once again provide
visionary leadership to the community of nations? It may well be that an alternative form of global leadership will emerge in the Global Mind, but that is uncertain for now and is likely to take time that we don’t have.

It is theoretically possible, though extremely unlikely, that some other nation will rise to this challenge. It is also possible that the tectonic changes that have reorganized the equilibrium of power in the world, shifting it from West to East and redistributing it throughout the world, will make it difficult for the U.S. to once again provide the strength and quality of leadership it offered during the second half of the twentieth century. The world’s loss of confidence in the United States following the catastrophic political, military, and economic mistakes of the early twenty-first century accelerated this shift in power, but was not its fundamental cause.

Still, the best chance for success in shaping a positive future and avoiding catastrophe is the reestablishment of a transcendent capacity for global leadership by the United States. And for those who have difficulty believing that the promise of American democracy can be redeemed, remember that the promise America offers the world has been resurrected in the past during some very dark days. Its revolution was almost stillborn. It nearly tore itself in two during the Civil War. The domineering crimes of the robber barons exceeded the excesses of today’s ambitious titans. Destitution during the Great Depression, the devastating blow at Pearl Harbor while Hitler rampaged through Europe, and the brush with Armageddon during the Cuban Missile Crisis were all followed by renewals of the American spirit and a flourishing of the values at the heart of the American Dream. So America can certainly be renewed again, and its potential for world leadership can be restored.