Rumors of Honor (System States Rebellion Book 2) (9 page)

When
the Union ships stopped firing counter-missiles before being hit by any of the
FED missiles, Remington nodded.
That’s it! They’ve run out of counter-missiles!
She watched with growing excitement as the counter-missiles cleared a path for
that one Union ship, while wave after wave of HE warheads impacted harmlessly
against the armored hulls of the other three ships.

The
range between them was now less than 50,000 klicks, and with the combined rate
of closure at 987 kps, the two groups of ships would pass each other at
white-knuckle range in less than a minute.

A
new icon appeared on the display. Commodore Stevens’ flagship had fired three
missiles which the sidebar data said were carrying Mark 1 warheads. They were
obviously targeted at the three ships that appeared to have used up their
counter-missile capability. If the fourth ship elected to use some of its
remaining counter-missiles to protect its comrades, that was okay too. It would
then have less missiles to defend itself when the other four FED ships fired
their Mark 1s at it during the last few seconds before the two groups would be
at their closest approach to each other. With three seconds to go before
Stevens’ missiles hit, those three Union ships vomited 60 missiles. Remington
did the math quickly. Sixty missiles spread over six ships meant that each
ship’s six rail-gun cannon stood a pretty good chance of intercepting those
missiles. But she felt a chill go down her spine when she realized that those
60 Union missiles weren’t spread evenly over the squadron. They were all
concentrated on just two ships.

Events
were happening fast now, too fast for the Weapons Officer to keep track.
Stevens’ three Mark 1s hit their targets. One Union ship blew apart. The other
two showed signs of major damage. The Union volley of 60 missiles reached their
two targets, Corpus Christi and Vicksburg, before they fired their few
remaining Mark 1s. Both ships stopped maneuvering and vented atmosphere.
Remington shook her head. Stevens should have ordered them to fire first but
hadn’t reacted fast enough. With the range now down to less than 5,000 klicks
and only five seconds to go before interpenetration, the rest of the squadron
fired their 13 remaining Mark 1s at the fourth enemy ship. It initiated
counter-missile fire almost immediately. Twenty counter-missiles streaked out
towards the thirteen incoming missiles. Remington held her breath. The two
missile icons merged and…both disappeared. The Union ship had lucked out and
stopped all the Mark 1s, even though the probabilities said that at least two
FED missiles should have gotten through. By the time she realized what had
happened, both groups of ships had passed each other and the range was now
widening again.

Remington
heard her CO curse. One Union ship would get away now that the FED ships no
longer had any Mark 1s left to fire. Remington turned to the Weapons Officer
and told him to switch the main display to show what had happened to the
attacked industrial centers. The news was bad. Enough Union HE warheads had
gotten through the ground-based defenses to cause significant damage and loss
of life at all six targeted centers. It was hard to see how this battle could
be considered an outright victory. The Commodore would have a lot of explaining
to do.

Chapter Six:

Day
90/2544

It
wasn’t quite the middle of the night when Janicot entered the underground
complex that housed the SSU’s version of Oracle, but it was only half an hour
to sunrise. Major Foster met him at the entrance to the lower level.

“I
know I told you to wake me in the middle of the night if necessary, but I was
hoping to get the results by phone, Major.”

Foster’s
expression was gratifyingly apologetic. “That would have been a long phone
call, Sir. Some of Oracle’s results can best be understood in a visual format.”

Janicot
grunted his acknowledgement as he walked past her. She quickly caught up to him
as he spoke. “Can you at least tell me verbally if Oracle thinks we have a
chance of winning this war?”

Foster
sighed. The Admiral wanted a yes or no, and the answer to his question was too
complicated for that.  “Do we have a chance of winning? Yes. Is the probability
of winning high? No.” To her surprise Janicot didn’t respond. When they got to
the conference room where the briefing would take place, he stopped and looked
at her.

“Well,
at least we have a chance. I’m relieved to hear that. Okay, Major, you take as
much time as you need to fill me in.” He turned and entered the room without
waiting for her response. When he sat down at the oval table where the rest of
her staff were already seated, she activated the 3-D holographic projector and
called up the first image.

“Thank
you for coming down here, Admiral. I’ll just quickly summarize what we asked
Oracle to analyze, and then I’ll get to the results of that analysis. As you
know, Oracle was tasked with projecting the most likely sequence of events and
the long range outlook based on an assumption that Operation Sledgehammer, and
specifically the Makassar component of that operation, failed completely. By
that I mean that none of our four Savannah-class heavy cruisers return and no
significant damage is done to the industrial infrastructure on Makassar. It’s
that last aspect that has the most impact on our future prospects. The graph in
front of you shows Oracle’s projection of warship tonnage in thousands of
metric tons. SSU tonnage is shown in blue. FPS tonnage in red. Because of our
efforts to widen our industrial capability to more member planets, our tonnage
capacity increases faster than the FEDs over the next 12-18 months, but when
Makassar starts to convert its capacity to shipbuilding instead of capacity
expansion, their resulting rate of increase in tonnage eventually exceeds ours
by several hundred percent.

“I
should point out here that this represents the Base Case, which is defined as
the projection of the status quo. In other words, what you’re seeing there is
the outcome of decisions that have been taken so far, and this is only the
logistical side of the equations. It doesn’t take into consideration Strategy
and Grand Strategy. The SSU’s decentralized nature is both an advantage and a
disadvantage. It’s an advantage from the point of view that the loss of any
individual planet will not represent a significant portion of the Union’s total
economic and military strength. It’s a disadvantage from the point of view that
there will be many more planets that need to be defended. On the FED side,
there are only two planets that have strategic value and therefore need to be
defended, and they are Makassar and Hadley, both in the Franklin Tri-system.

“At
this point I have to address a major issue and that is the impact of having a
Majestic computer directing FED Strategy and Grand Strategy. How do you program
an Oracle device to anticipate the far more sophisticated thinking of a
Majestic device? My staff and I have been asking ourselves that question, and I
regret to say that so far we haven’t been able to come up with an answer. If
Oracle could anticipate the thinking of a Majestic computer then it would BE a
Majestic computer itself. Therefore, the SSU faces a very difficult challenge.
In order for our Oracle to come up with a strategy that has a decent chance of
succeeding, we needed to program Oracle with our Grand Strategy. As you know,
Admiral, Grand Strategy is the political outcome that all military strategy is
designed to achieve. In very simplistic terms, we want the FEDs to let us break
away. The question becomes how do we convince them to do that? Defeating them
in a series of direct military confrontations either in space or on the ground
is unlikely given their current and expected numerical superiority UNLESS we
engineer battles at a time and place of our choosing when we’re confident that
we can win. The strategy I’m about to describe is risky, but it seems to be our
best chance of achieving our Grand Strategy.

“Oracle
was told to determine the FEDs best economic and military strategy, and once
that was calculated, then determine the best counter strategy that we should
follow. The overall FED strategy is actually quite simple. At some point,
they’ll have the resources to attack, conquer and hold an SSU planet. The
obvious target is Sparta. They know that Sparta is the administrative hub and
the single most important economic contributor to the SSU. If Sparta falls, the
SSU will fall into chaos until a new capital can be agreed upon and set up. In
addition to the obvious immediate economic and military impact on the SSU,
there would also be a huge psychological blow. Oracle predicts that news of
Sparta’s fall would motivate some of the less developed member planets to
renounce their membership and rejoin the FPS if there’s no continuity of
government. With enough momentum, that psychological impact could even spill
over into the more developed group of planets such as Hekla or Gryphon.

“Therefore
the administrative functions represented by the Capital of the SSU cannot be
allowed to be conquered by the FEDs. With that said, Oracle’s strategy is to
shift the administrative, economic and military command structure of the SSU
from Sparta to another secret location, which is being referred to as Site X
for the time being. Political control will remain on Sparta with the
understanding that Site X will assume political control in the event that
Sparta is invaded and conquered. A duplicate Oracle capability will have to be
built at Site X as a backup system. The location of Site X will remain a
carefully guarded secret even from the SSU political leadership. It would be
dangerous for you to know where Site X is if Sparta was conquered and you were
captured. Setting up a backup Capital, so to speak, is THE defensive move
needed to insure continuity of SSU government. All SSU member planets will be
told that continuity of government will take place from and through Site X.

“The
offensive part of Oracle’s strategy is designed to force the enemy’s hand into
attacking Sparta prematurely, and this is how we’ll accomplish that. A task
force composed of unarmored cruisers and modified freighters carrying ground
forces will attack specific economic and military targets on Earth and in the
SOL system. These targets will include shipyards, fabrication plants for ship
parts, command facilities, training and support facilities for ground forces,
commercial shipping and any navy ships that happen to be on Earth at the time.
Targets containing civilians will be ordered to evacuate before those targets
are fired upon. With careful planning and execution, civilian casualties will
be kept to a minimum. The long term impact on the FED’s ability to prosecute
the war will be small, but the population will realize how vulnerable they are
if we should decide at a later point that civilians are legitimate targets.
Their reaction is expected to polarize public opinion between two opposites.
One extreme will call for a negotiated end to the war, while the other will
demand an immediate retaliatory strike on Sparta. Oracle predicts that General
Trojan will be ordered to launch an attack on Sparta with whatever forces he
can quickly organize. By the time that attack force reaches Sparta, we’ll be
ready for it and, here’s the risky part, if we can defeat the attempt and
inflict serious losses on the FED forces, to be quickly followed up with
another precision strike on Earth, then public support for a negotiated peace
should soar and the Federation Council will be forced to make a peace overture.

“In
terms of defending Sparta, Oracle is recommending that as soon as we finish
building the two cruisers that are under construction right now, we concentrate
all further construction here on Sparta exclusively on missile boat variants. Construction
on other member planets will continue to include jump-capable warships. With
minor modifications, those warships will be capable of carrying externally,
from other member planets to Sparta, missile boats that have already been
built. The estimate is that by the time the FEDs attack, Sparta will have over
50 missile boats, plus 20 cruisers, plus over 100 ground-based missile
batteries.”

When
it was clear that there was a break in her presentation, Janicot responded.
“What odds does Oracle give for a successful outcome of this strategy, Major?”

“One
chance in three, Admiral.”

Janicot
tried to keep his face from showing his dismay. “Why so low?”

“It’s
a function of the combined probabilities of each component event. The
successful conclusion of the first attack on Earth is not a sure thing. The
pressure on General Trojan may not be strong enough to make him act
prematurely. But most of all, the battle at Sparta may not be the clear victory
that would be needed for the second attack on Earth to take place quickly
enough to galvanize the civilian population. If these events take longer than
expected, the FED buildup at Makassar will start to play a role as well by
stiffening the backbones of their politicians. Finally, Oracle is including an
adjustment that represents its best guess as to how much Majestic might degrade
our chances. If the FEDs didn’t have Majestic, the odds would be almost 2 to 1
in our favor.”

“I
have trouble believing that Majestic would make that much of a difference,”
said Janicot.

“Well,
referring back to what I said earlier about the difficulty of Oracle predicting
what Majestic could do, my staff and I are convinced that Oracle has actually
underestimated Majestic’s impact.”

“Is
there any way we can improve the odds more than that?” he asked. Foster
hesitated and Janicot picked up on that. “There’s something more you haven’t
told me yet. What is it?”

“Within
the next 12-18 months, we’ll know whether the strategy I’ve just outlined will
work. If we’re still at war after that, then something’s gone wrong. We would
then need to switch to a different strategy that is difficult to predict at
this point. Oracle was asked what initiatives could be started now that would
at least give our side more options for the long term strategy. Only two
initiatives had any chance of improving our odds. The problem is that both
involve a high degree of uncertainty with regards to timing. If the timing is
quick, our odds increase, but if the timing is slow, we might actually make the
odds worse.”

“Okay.
Let’s hear them,” said Janicot.

“Yes,
sir. The first option has to do with a shift in our shipbuilding strategy.
Right now each of the 15 most developed member planets of the SSU are building
ships based on common designs. The output of construction is limited by each
planet’s technical, industrial and fiscal constraints. However, we could adopt
the same building strategy as the FEDs. In other words, we pick a planet that
has abundant raw materials and is not currently colonized. We then import enough
industry so that it can expand capacity by itself and let it ramp up to the
point where we can build large numbers of ships quickly too. Where the timing
uncertainty comes in is a) how quickly can a suitable planet, one that is
unknown to the FEDS, be identified, b) how quickly can the new site be made
self-sufficient and c) how fast can capacity be ramped up? It may turn out that
the war becomes effectively lost before output from the new site can make a
difference, although…” She let the sentence remain unfinished.

“Although
what, Major?”

Foster
took a deep breath. “Well, as long as the new site remains undiscovered by the
FEDs, in theory it can keep right on building warships even if the rest of the
SSU has been reconquered. A massive attack on Makassar and/or Hadley months
after everyone on Earth thinks the war is over would be a huge psychological
blow.”

“Hm.
That’s an interesting scenario but not one I’d want to count on. Tell me about
the other option.”

“Yes,
sir. The other option has the advantage of giving the overall probability of
success the biggest boost but has the disadvantage of having the most
uncertainty over timing. If we could develop a breakthrough  in jump technology
whereby our ships could shift from star system to star system much faster, then
the effect would be the same as if we had a lot more ships AND it would create
a Fog of War that their Majestic machine would have a hard time seeing
through.”

“That’s
a big IF, Major. Jump technology hasn’t improved in a couple of centuries. Last
I heard, the general consensus among the techies is that it can’t be improved.”

Foster
nodded. “Yes, that is the general consensus, which is why no one is trying to
improve it. I agree that it’s a long shot, but if it can be done and done fast enough,
it would shift the odds back to 2 to 1.”

Janicot
leaned forward. “That much?”

“Yes,
that much. In terms of our research and development priorities, none of the
other projects come anywhere close to having that kind of impact. If our ships
can show up where and when the FEDs least expect them, we can offset the
advantage that Majestic would otherwise give them.”

Janicot
slapped his hand down on the table. “Then R&D will be our backup plan in
case the short term strategy fails. We’ll set up an R&D center here on
Sparta.” He was about to say more when he saw Foster shake her head. “Not
here?” he asked.

“Oracle
recommends that all R&D be conducted on Zanzibar.”

“Why
in God’s Name on Zanzibar? It’s practically on the edge of human-explored
space.”

“Precisely.
Oracle feels that Sparta or any of the other 14 developed planets are too risky
in terms of having all our R&D eggs in a basket that might be the target of
a FED invasion. All the scientists and technicians and their equipment have to
be moved to some place that Majestic is unlikely to identify.”

“Alright,
Zanzibar it is then, but moving thousands of scientists and technicians and
their families and equipment from over a dozen planets is going to be a huge
undertaking. It’ll take years just to set it up. Since we’re talking about
R&D, did Oracle recommend any other new projects?”

“Yes,
Admiral, 21 of them in fact. As you know, our second generation AMM is in
production now. Oracle is recommending work on a third generation version, plus
work on making enemy missiles less accurate, including electronic
counter-measures, decoys and laser point-defense systems among others. On the
offensive side, there’s a recommendation for development of both fission and
fusion warheads. The rationale there is that if the FEDs are already developing
such weapons and they build ships with neutron armor, we’ll be at a severe
disadvantage if we can’t damage their ships. Developing our own nuclear
warheads will not just level the playing field, it also gives us more options.”

“I
hope you’re not going to suggest using them on civilian targets, Major. That’s
a line the Chancellor has said he will not cross.”

“No,
Sir, I wasn’t going to suggest that, but what about using them on deep
underground military targets on Hadley such as Majestic’s hiding place?”

Janicot
thought about that before answering. “Do we know where they’re putting that
infernal machine?”

“Not
with any certainty, but I saw data on several possible locations, Admiral.”

“I
don’t know, Major. Enough nukes hitting military targets could make Hadley just
as deadly to human life as direct hits on civilian targets, what with fallout
and climatic effects. If the FEDs decide to go tit for tat, the loss of
civilian life on both sides could end up being horrendous. If we win this war,
I’d like to be able to claim that we acted honorably.”