Collision 2012: Obama vs. Romney and the Future of Elections in America (53 page)

The headline in the next day’s
Los Angeles Times
read, “For His Second Term, a Sweeping Liberal Vision.” Republicans, whose House majority was now more conservative than ever, said the speech confirmed their long-stated contention that at heart the president was a big-government liberal. Obama’s advisers, pointing to the election returns, argued that the president was merely reflecting values that were now in the political mainstream. At the end of it all, the great divide still existed. Whether Obama and the Republicans could change that awaited the next chapter in democracy’s ongoing story.

I owe debts and thanks for all the encouragement, assistance, and support during the two-plus years it took to produce this book. Authors are lucky to have one good editor. I was fortunate to have two. Jim Silberman of James H. Silberman Books was a guiding hand from start to finish on this book. Wendy Wolf at Viking brought her keen eye and good humor to every page. My agent, Philippa Brophy, was both counselor and friend. Special thanks to all three. Haynes Johnson, my coauthor on our book about the 2008 campaign, was an enthusiastic advocate of this project. Sadly, he died shortly before publication.

A handful of others deserve particular thanks. Aaron Blake, my colleague at the
Washington Post,
played an invaluable role. He conducted some interviews, researched specific issues, and read and reread the chapters. He improved the book immeasurably. Sam Adams, a Harvard student who became part of this project through the good graces of the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, produced an invaluable timeline of events and supplied other research. Cynthia Colonna and Olwen Price listened to and transcribed hundreds of hours of recorded interviews. Lucy Shackelford, formerly of the
Post,
provided research material at the front end of the project. Pollster Peter Hart again provided insights into the electorate through the series of focus groups he conducted for the Annenberg Public Policy School at the University of Pennsylvania. The team at Viking who helped guide this book through to publication was invaluable: Margaret Riggs, Carolyn Coleburn, Nancy Sheppard, Roland Ottewell, Jane Cavolina, and Bruce Giffords.

I especially want to thank the candidates who generously made time during or after the campaign to share their experiences with me. It is not always enjoyable to be asked to explain why things didn’t work out as planned, but they were good-natured and responsive to all my questions. This group includes former governor Mitt Romney, former governor Tim Pawlenty, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Rick Perry, and former governor Jon Huntsman Jr. Governor Chris Christie also was generous with his time for this project.

I owe thanks to many people inside all the campaigns. Senior officials in both the Obama and the Romney campaigns offered their insights both in real time and through post-November interviews. Officials in all the other Republican campaigns were helpful in describing the action from their vantage points. Many of these strategists show up by name in the book. Some others spoke only on the condition that they not be identified by name. No one in any of the campaigns will agree with all of the conclusions here, but I deeply appreciate what they did to help me see the campaign through their eyes.

The
Washington Post
has been my journalistic home for three decades. Chairman Don Graham is all any reporter could ask for in an ultimate leader. Publisher Katharine Weymouth encouraged me throughout this long project. Former executive editor Marcus Brauchli and former managing editor Liz Spayd were at the helm in the newsroom when I began the book, and I thank them for their encouragement. Martin Baron, the
Post
’s current executive editor, was gracious in allowing me time to finish the book. Other editors were instrumental in making this book a reality. Kevin Merida was national editor when I began and was appointed managing editor while I was writing it. He made the book possible in numerous ways, and I owe him special thanks. Steven Ginsberg guided the
Post
’s political coverage with creativity and a steady hand. Other editors to whom I owe thanks are Cameron Barr, Anne Kornblut, Terry Samuel, Barbara Vobejda, Tim Curran, and Scott Vance.

I have drawn on the work and friendship of a large group of people at the
Post
who were part of the political operation during the 2012 campaign. They are Karen Tumulty, who generously shared transcripts of interviews with some of the candidates and noncandidates, Phil Rucker, Amy Gardner, Scott Wilson, Ann Gerhart, David Nakamura, Peter Wallsten, Tom Hamburger, Roz Helderman, David Fahrenthold, Paul Kane, Ruth Marcus, Al Kamen, Emily Heil, Dana Milbank, Sandhya Somashekhar, Nia-Malika Henderson, Ed O’Keefe, Dan Eggen, Tim Farnam, Krissah Thompson, Lori Montgomery, Jerry Markon, Glenn Kessler, Ezra Klein, Robert Barnes, Joel Achenbach, Zach Goldfarb, Jason Horowitz, Felicia Sonmez, David Maraniss, Eli Saslow, Stephanie McCrummen, Bill Turque, Melinda Henneberger, Alice Crites, Madonna Lebling, Carrie Camillo, Kathy Tolbert, Liz Ward, and Anne Bartlett.

Thanks also to the invaluable Fix team at the
Post,
led by the irrepressible Chris Cillizza, and including Aaron Blake, Rachel Weiner, and Sean Sullivan. Our polling team, led by Jon Cohen and including Peyton Craighill and Scott Clement, supplied me with a steady stream of data and interpretation. Our digital team did extraordinary work. They include Vince Bzdek, Ryan Kellett, Cory Haik, Ken Smith, Matt DeLong, Terri Rupar, and Natalie Jennings. I’m also indebted to members of the
Post
’s graphics and data team, Ted Mellnik,
Dan Keating, and Karen Yourish, as well as photographers Nikki Kahn and Melina Mara, who logged endless miles with Obama and Romney. Other
Post
friends to whom I owe thanks are Len Downie, Maralee Schwartz, and Bob Kaiser.

I am also indebted to friends and colleagues at other news organizations. Roger Simon, my pal for more than forty years, has been an inspiration and good counselor. Both he and his wife, Marcia Kramer, were supportive throughout this project. Both read and critiqued the manuscript. Ron Brownstein offered original insights all along the way, as he has been doing for two decades, and his helpful suggestions improved the book. Others whose work I have drawn on or whose company I’ve appreciated during days together on the road include: Jeff Zeleny, Adam Nagourney, Jim Rutenberg, Ashley Parker, Peter Baker, Gwen Ifill and the team at
Washington Week,
Chuck Todd and the gang at
The Daily Rundown,
Jonathan Martin, Betsy Fischer Martin, Lois Romano, Amy Walter, David Chalian, John Dickerson, Jackie Calmes, Ron Fournier, Jon Ward, Mark Leibovich and Steve Scully.

I thank Anne Kornblut, Phil Rucker, Haynes Johnson, Doug Balz, and Colette Rhoney, who read all or portions of the book, for their critiques and suggestions, all of which helped to improve the final product. Whatever errors remain in this book are mine and mine alone.

Most important to me are my family. John Balz, my son, understands both politics and journalism in ways I don’t and has been a steadying hand. His wife, Erica Simmons, has brightened our lives as the newest member of the family. My brother Doug got me into journalism in the first place, and for that alone, no thanks are enough. Thanks also to his wife, Jane Scholz.

The biggest debt I owe is to Nancy, my wife of more than forty years, who seemed to know at every stage of this project whether I needed support, criticism, encouragement, or a gentle shove to stay on schedule. She was good-humored when I was sometimes not, and her love has been a source of sustenance for as long as we’ve been together.

As stated in the note to the reader, quotations in the narrative not otherwise identified are either from interviews with the author (almost all of them digitally recorded) or from events witnessed on the campaign trail. In reporting this book, I had access to countless transcripts of candidate debates, convention addresses, press conferences, speeches, and other events as described. I have tried to cite the time and place of those events in the narrative but for obvious space reasons do not list all of them here in the source notes.

BOOK ONE: THE PIVOT

“As Obama approached the fourth year”
:
David Maraniss,
Barack Obama: The Story
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), xxi.

The
Washington Post
’s Scott Wilson
:
Scott Wilson, “Obama, the Loner President,”
Washington Post,
October 7, 2011, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-07/opinions/35280751_1_president-obama-politics-obama-administration.

One of the most thoughtful efforts
:
James T. Kloppenberg,
Reading Obama: Dreams, Hope, and the American Political Tradition
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011), Kindle edition, Loc 2 of 302.

In their revealing biography
:
Michael Kranish and Scott Helman,
The Real Romney
(New York: HarperCollins, 2011), 7.

“he preferred eating only the tops”
:
Ibid., 5.

“My son said that having Senator Kennedy”
:
Ibid., 276.

New York Times
columnist David Brooks
:
David Brooks, “Convener in Chief,”
New York Times,
June 27, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/28/opinion/28brooks.html?_r=0.

That spring, an unnamed official
:
Ryan Lizza, “The Consequentialist,”
New Yorker,
May 2, 2011, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/02/110502fa_fact_lizza.

“You’ll remember this as the day”
:
Robert Draper,
Do Not Ask What Good We Do: Inside the U.S. House of Representatives
(New York: Free Press, 2012), Kindle edition, Loc 229 of 8039.

Bill McInturff, one of the nation’s
:
Dan Balz, “Debt-Ceiling Debate’s Negative Implications for 2012 Elections,”
Washington Post,
August 31, 2011, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-08-31/politics/35270526_1_president-obama-and-republicans-analysis-confidence.

One article in particular
:
Drew Westen, “What Happened to Obama?,”
New York Times,
August 6, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-obamas-passion.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.

“While many folks here are flattered”
:
“Welcome, Mr. President,”
Dubuque Telegraph Herald,
August 16, 2011.

On his second day
:
Eileen Mozinski Schmidt, “Obama in Iowa,”
Dubuque Telegraph Herald,
August 17, 2011.

The
New York Times
’ Mark Landler
:
Mark Landler, “Far from Capital, Obama Still Finds Its Woes,”
New York Times,
August 17, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/18/us/politics/18obama.html?_r=0.

At his last stop
:
Jeff Zeleny, “Obama, on Midwest Tour, Moves to Regain Mantle of Campaigner,”
New York Times,
August 18, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/us/politics/19memo.html?_r=0.

“It was distressing”
:
“Oh, Grow Up,”
New York Times,
September 1, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/oh-grow-up.html?_r=0.

“Mr. Boehner, Mr. McConnell”
:
Jack Brammer and Kelsey Sheridan, “At Ohio River Bridge, Obama Calls Out McConnell, Boehner on Jobs,”
Lexington Herald-Leader,
September 23, 2011, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/23/125034/at-ohio-river-bridge-obama-calls.html.

One blog, created by a pair
:
We Are the 99 Percent,
http://wearethe99percent.tumblr.com/.

Mother Jones
magazine
:
Adam Weinstein, “‘We Are the 99 Percent’ Creators Revealed,” motherjones.com, October 7, 2011, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/10/we-are-the-99-percent-creators.

“Obama has gone from a modest favorite”
:
Nate Silver, “Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election,”
New York Times Magazine,
November 6, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.

Later that year
:
Sasha Issenberg, “How President Obama’s Campaign Used Big Data to Rally Individual Voters,”
MIT Technology Review,
December 19, 2012, http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/.

They consulted with
:
Benedict Carey, “Academic ‘Dream Team’ Helped Obama’s Effort,”
New York Times,
November 12, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/health/dream-team-of-behavioral-scientists-advised-obama-campaign.html?pagewanted=all.

BOOK TWO: THE REPUBLICANS

One clip showed Romney saying grace
:
To view the video, go to http://www.gather.com/viewVideo.action?id=11821949021852363.

“State auditors, county commissioners”
:
Nicholas Confessore and Ashley Parker, “Romney, Always Campaigning for Others . . . and for Himself,”
New York Times,
November 5, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/us/politics/mitt-romney-campaigns-tirelessly-and-not-just-for-himself.html?pagewanted=all.

“Romney had accomplished”
:
Ryan Lizza, “Romney’s Dilemma,”
New Yorker,
June, 6, 2011, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/06/06/110606fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all.

The morning of the speech
:
Editorial, “Obama’s Running Mate,”
Wall Street Journal,
May 12, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576317413439329644.html.

The next morning
:
Untitled Romney letter to the editor,
Wall Street Journal,
May 13, 2011, http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576319660196107724.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop&mg=reno-wsj.

“The likely Republican presidential candidate”
:
Editorial, “Romney’s Daredevil Act,”
Wall Street Journal,
May 13, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576319312743766234.html.

In the first year of Obama’s presidency
:
Sam Tanenhaus,
The Death of Conservatism
(New York: Random House, 2009), Kindle edition, Loc 4 of 127.

“President Obama, are you listening?”
:
Video of CNBC’s Rick Santelli, February 19, 2009, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEZB4taSEoA.

Some scholars saw it
:
Alan Abramowitz, “Partisan Polarization and the Rise of the Tea Party Movement,” prepared for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, September 2011.

Others described it
:
Gary Jacobson, “The President, the Tea Party, and Voting Behavior in 2010,” prepared for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, September 2011.

Still others noted
:
Nicole C. Rae, “The Return of Conservative Populism: The Rise of the Tea Party and Its Impact on American Politics,” prepared for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, September 2011.

In the summer of 2012
:
Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, “Big Gulf Between Parties, Divisions Within,”
Washington Post,
August 18, 2012, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-08-18/politics/35492941_1_democratic-party-fractious-coalitions-gop-coalition.

In another case
:
Andrew Ferguson, “The Boy from Yazoo City,”
Weekly Standard
16, no. 15 (December 27, 2010), http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/boy-yazoo-city_523551.html.

“I take a little umbrage”
:
Karen Tumulty interview with Mike Huckabee, transcript of interview shared with the author.

“Instead of throwing red meat”
:
Karen Tumulty, “Does Mike Huckabee Still Want to Be President?,”
Washington Post,
February 21, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html.

She turned to Jason Recher
:
To view the video, go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO5pzipR6uc.

In the video, Palin said
:
“Full Text of Sarah Palin’s Statement,” Politico.com, January 12, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47478.html.

In January 2010, Daniels
:
A fuller account of this meeting is contained in Tom Bevan and Carl Cannon’s e-book
Election 2012: The Battle Begins
(New York: Crown, 2012), Kindle edition, Loc 1206 of 2342.

Christie was born in Newark
:
Almanac of American Politics, http://www.nationaljournal.com/almanac/member/1782.

“He was indisputably”
:
Ibid.

As talk of a candidacy continued
:
Andy Barr, “Chris Christie: ‘Zero Chance’ for 2012 Bid,” Politico.com, November 4, 2010, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44712.html.

Former Minnesota senator David Durenberger
:
Graydon Royce, “A Mix of Boyish Charm and Drive That Found a Purpose,”
Minneapolis Star Tribune,
October 20, 2006.

“Not because he was negative”
:
Ibid.

On one occasion
:
Brian Montopoli, “Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann Rally Thousands in Minneapolis,” CBSnews.com, April 7, 2010, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20001959-503544.html.

CNBC’s Lawrence Kudlow
:
Larry Kudlow, “Pawlenty 5 Percent Growth Vision,” Town-hallFinance.com, http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/larrykudlow/2011/06/11/pawlenty_5_percent_growth_vision.

Jack Welch, the former CEO
:
Abby W. Schachter, “Pawlenty Boring? Not When He Envisions 5 Percent Growth,”
New York Post,
June 10, 2011, http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/capitol/pawlenty_boring_not_when_he_envisions_1Zmbl3s31XUfEk3JFijvdI.

Veteran reporter Walter Shapiro
:
Walter Shapiro, “The New Hampshire Debate: Michele Bachmann’s Surprisingly Mature Performance,” NewRepublic.com, June 14, 2011, http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/89944/new-hampshire-debate-michele-bachmann.

“His job description is debate coach”
:
Amy Gardner, “The Candidate Whisperer: The Man Behind Michele Bachmann,”
Washington Post,
September 21, 2011, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-09-21/lifestyle/35274117_1_bachmann-team-michele-bachmann-debate-coach.

The
Register
’s Jennifer Jacobs wrote
:
Jennifer Jacobs, “Iowa Poll: Bachmann in Lead; Cain Third; Others Find Little Traction,”
Des Moines Register,
June 25, 2011, http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/.

The
Dallas Morning News
reported
:
“50 Things You Need to Know About Texas Gov. Rick Perry,”
Dallas Morning News,
October 11, 2010, http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/state-politics/20101011-50-things-you-need-to-know-about-texas-gov.-rick-perry.ece.

His mother made his clothes
:
Mark Z. Barabak, “Rick Perry Has a History of Acrimony with George W. Bush,”
Los Angeles Times,
June 30, 2011, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/jun/30/nation/la-na-0630-perry-bush-20110630.

He was an Eagle Scout
:
“50 Things You Need to Know About Texas Gov. Rick Perry.”

Jay Root of the
Texas Tribune
:
Jay Root,
Oops: A Diary from the 2012 Campaign Trail
(San Francisco: Byliner, 2012), Kindle edition, Loc 3051 of 3136.

On the night of October 30
:
Jonathan Martin, Maggie Haberman, Anna Palmer, and Kenneth P. Vogel, “Herman Cain Accused by Two Women of Inappropriate Behavior,” Politico.com, October 30, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/67194.html.

Cain’s lawyer appeared to contradict
:
Brian Montopoli, “Herman Cain ‘Reassessing’ Candidacy After Affair Claim,” CBSnews.com, November 29, 2011, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57332967-503544/herman-cain-reassessing-candidacy-after-affair-claim/.

Four days after White made her statement
:
John DiStaso, “Cain: Wife Didn’t Know About Friendship, ‘Financial Assistance’ to Ginger White,”
New Hampshire Union Leader,
December 1, 2011, http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111201/NEWS0605/111209989.

“We went through the two worst months”
:
Karen Tumulty, “Newt Gingrich: GOP’s Consummate Survivor Is Back on His Feet,”
Washington Post,
October 29, 2011, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-29/politics/35277681_1_newt-gingrich-chick-fil-a-herman-cain.

“I think he’s making a big mistake”
:
Jonathan Martin, “Iowa Governor Terry Branstad to Mitt Romney: ‘Iowans Don’t Like to Be Ignored,’” Politico.com, November 16, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68489.html.

Ten of those committees
:
R. Sam Garrett, “Super PACs in Federal Elections: Overview and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, October 6, 2011, http://op.bna.com/der.nsf/id/rtar-8n6pkq/$File/Super%20Pacs%20in%20Federal%20Elections.pdf.