World Order (56 page)

(and currently an estimated one billion people do)
: Smolan and Erwitt,
Human Face of Big Data,
135.

The complexity is compounded
: See David C. Gompert and Phillip Saunders,
The Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Relations in an Age of Vulnerability
(Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 2011).

Stuxnet
: Ralph Langer, “Stuxnet: Dissecting a Cyberwarfare Weapon,”
IEEE Security and Privacy
9, no. 3 (2011): 49–52.

“
the next war will begin
”: Rex Hughes, quoting General Keith Alexander, in “A Treaty for Cyberspace,”
International Affairs
86, no. 2 (2010): 523–41.

“
sown in the nature of man
”: Publius [James Madison],
The Federalist
10, in Hamilton, Madison, and Jay,
Federalist Papers,
46–47.

Recent studies suggest
: See “Digital Set to Surpass TV in Time Spent with US Media: Mobile Helps Propel Digital Time Spent,”
eMarketer.com
, August 1, 2013 (reporting that the average American adult spends “5 hours per day online, on nonvoice mobile activities or with other digital media” and 4.5 hours per day watching television); Brian Stelter, “8 Hours a Day Spent on Screens, Study Finds,”
New York Times,
March 26, 2009 (reporting that “adults are exposed to screens … for about 8.5 hours on any given day”).

“
Where is the Life
”: T. S. Eliot,
Collected Poems, 1909–1962
(Boston: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1991), 147.

“
People forget items they think
”: Betsy Sparrow, Jenny Liu, and Daniel M. Wegner, “Google Effects on Memory: Cognitive Consequences of Having Information at Our Fingertips,”
Science
333, no. 6043 (2011): 776–78.

Information at one’s fingertips
: See Nicholas Carr,
The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains
(New York: W. W. Norton, 2010).

“
to consume more content
”: Erik Brynjolfsson and Michael D. Smith, “The Great Equalizer? Consumer Choice Behavior at Internet Shopbots” (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Sloan School of Management, 2001).

“
which you would like
”: Neal Leavitt, “Recommendation Technology: Will It Boost E-commerce?,”
Computer
39, no. 5 (2006): 13–16.

They look forward
: See Clive Thompson,
Smarter Than You Think: How Technology Is Changing Our Minds for the Better
(New York: Penguin Press, 2013).

“
people who try to perpetuate myths
”: Schmidt and Cohen,
New Digital Age,
35, 198–99.

Yet they also bring conflicting
: See, for example, Ofeibea Quist-Arcton, “Text Messages Used to Incite Violence in Kenya,” National Public Radio, February 20, 2008, and “When SMS Messages Incite Violence in Kenya,”
Harvard Law School Internet & Democracy Blog
, February 21, 2008. For a discussion of this and other examples, see Morozov,
Net Delusion,
256–61.

anticipating their thoughts
: That is, the burgeoning field of “predictive analytics,” with uses expanding in both commercial and governmental spheres to anticipate thoughts and actions at both the societal and the individual level. See Eric Siegel,
Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die
(Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons, 2013).

In this respect, among the new technology’s
: For an exploration of this concept, particularly as applied to the
commercial realm, see Lanier,
Who Owns the Future?

The West lauded the “Facebook
”: See
Chapter 3
.

“
The Internet has made tracking
”: Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier,
Big Data,
150.

“
People will not look forward
”: Edmund Burke,
Reflections on the Revolution in France
(1790; Indianapolis: Hackett, 1987), 29.

In the world of geopolitics
: For a compelling exploration of this shift and its possible implications, see Charles Kupchan,
No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).

More elemental forms of identity
: The seminal work about prospects for a world ordered on such a basis is Samuel Huntington,
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).

particular domestic structures
: On the evolution and appeal of different models, see John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge,
The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State
(New York: Penguin Press, 2014).

“
to acquiesce in some qualified plan
”: Edmund Burke to Charles-Jean-François Depont, November 1789, in
On Empire, Liberty, and Reform,
412–13.

Cryptic fragments from remote antiquity
: G. S. Kirk and J. E. Raven,
The Presocratic Philosophers: A Critical History with a Selection of Texts
(Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1957), 193, 195, 199 (on Heraclitus); Friedrich Nietzsche,
The Pre-Platonic Philosophers,
trans. with commentary by Greg Whitlock (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 2001).

“
The Meaning of History
”: Henry A. Kissinger, “The Meaning of History: Reflections on Spengler, Toynbee and Kant” (undergraduate thesis, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1950).

This book grew out of a dinner conversation with Charles Hill, Distinguished Fellow of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy and senior lecturer in the Humanities Program at Yale University. Charlie was a valued member of the Policy Planning Staff when I served as Secretary of State a lifetime ago. We have been friends and occasional collaborators ever since.

At that dinner, we concluded that the crisis in the concept of world order was the ultimate international problem of our day. When I decided to write a book on the subject, Charlie offered advice and assistance. It proved invaluable. Charlie gave me the benefit of several essays he had written on various aspects of the subject, reviewed chapters in the process of drafting, was always available for discussions, and helped edit the entire manuscript upon its completion.

Schuyler Schouten was indispensable and indefatigable—adjectives I already applied to his contribution in the preparation of
On China
three years ago. Technically my research associate, he functions on my intellectual pursuits as a kind of alter ego. He undertook most of the research, collected it in thoughtful summaries, reviewed the manuscript several times, and accompanied me on many discussions on the subject. His contribution to this book was seminal; that he unfailingly
maintained his composure amidst all these pressures is a tribute to his human qualities.

The editorial role of my publisher, Penguin Press, was exceptional. I have never worked with two editors simultaneously, and they complemented each other superbly. Ann Godoff added to her responsibilities as president and editor in chief by volunteering to edit this book. With penetrating intelligence and great common sense, she obliged me to elucidate obscure phrasing and historical references unfamiliar to the nonacademic reader. She also made essential structural suggestions. I do not know how she found time for her extensive and incisive comments, for which I am deeply grateful.

As a nearly obsessive history scholar, her colleague Stuart Proffitt, publisher of Penguin’s U.K. imprint, volunteered to read each chapter, made meticulous and thoughtful comments, and called my attention to essential references. Working with Stuart was like a tutorial from an exceptionally learned, patient, and kind mentor at a university.

I have never written on Internet matters. I am also essentially ignorant of their technical side. But I have reflected a great deal about the impact of the new technology on policymaking. Eric Schmidt patiently and thoughtfully agreed to expose me to his world. We met many times for extensive and extremely stimulating conversations on both coasts. Jared Cohen participated in a few of the meetings and contributed significantly to this process. On two occasions, Eric invited me to visit Google to exchange ideas with a few of his fascinating and brilliant colleagues.

A number of friends and acquaintances permitted me to impose on their good nature to read and comment on sections of this manuscript. They were J. Stapleton Roy and Winston Lord (on Asia); Michael Gfoeller and Emma Sky (on the Middle East); and Professor Rana Mitter of Oxford University (on the entire manuscript). Several chapters benefited from the insight of my friends Les Gelb, Michael Korda, Peggy Noonan, and Robert Kaplan.

Collaborating with me on a sixth book, Theresa Amantea supervised the typing, fact-checking, and all other technical problems in my office with her customary organizational skill and enthusiasm. Theresa also did much of the typing, assisted by Jody Williams, who pitched in to help meet impending deadlines. Both have worked with me for many decades. I thank them for their efficiency, even more for their dedication.

Louise Kushner is a more recent addition to my staff, but she matched her colleagues’ commitment. She contributed efficiently to the collation of editorial comments. At the same time firm and urbane, she kept my overall schedule under control while I concentrated on writing.

Jessee LePorin and Katherine Earle each provided valuable assistance.

Ingrid Sterner, Bruce Giffords, and Noirin Lucas of Penguin Press copyedited the manuscript and performed related tasks with great skill, bringing a special patience and attention to detail to the editorial production phase.

Andrew Wylie represented me in dealings with publishers around the world, as he had with
On China
, with his usual intelligence, tenacity, and ferocity. I am deeply grateful to him.

I have dedicated this book to my wife, Nancy, who has been my life. As always, she read the entire manuscript and made extraordinarily sensitive comments.

Needless to say, the shortcomings of this book are my own.

JOSEPH STIGLITZ,
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DAMBISA MOYO,
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ROBERT SKIDELSKY AND EDWARD SKIDELSKY,
How Much is Enough? The Love of Money, and the Case for the Good Life

FRANCES ASHCROFT,
The Spark of Life: Electricity in the Human Body

SEBASTIAN SEUNG,
Connectome: How the Brain’s Wiring Makes Us Who We Are

CALLUM ROBERTS,
Ocean of Life

ORLANDO FIGES,
Just Send Me Word: A True Story of Love and Survival in the Gulag

CALLUM ROBERTS,
Ocean of Life

LEONARD MLODINOW,
Subliminal: The Revolution of the New Unconscious and What it Teaches Us about Ourselves

JOHN ROMER,
A History of Ancient Egypt: From the First Farmers to the Great Pyramid

RUCHIR SHARMA,
Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

MICHAEL J. SANDEL,
What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets

TOM WATSON & MARTIN HICKMAN,
Dial M for Murdoch: News Corporation and the Corruption of Britain

DOMINIC SANDBROOK,
Seasons in the Sun: The Battle for Britain, 1974-1979

TARIQ RAMADAN,
The Arab Awakening:Islam and the new Middle East

JONATHAN HAIDT,
The Righteous Mind:Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion

AHMED RASHID,
Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West

TIM WEINER,
Enemies: A History of the FBI

GEORGE DYSON,
Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe

MARK PAGEL,
Wired for Culture: The Natural History of Human Cooperation

CULLEN MURPHY,
God’s Jury: The Inquisition and the Making of the Modern World

RICHARD SENNETT,
Together: The Rituals, Pleasures and Politics of Co-operation

FARAMERZ DABHOIWALA,
The Origins of Sex: A History of the First Sexual
Revolution

ROY F. BAUMEISTER AND JOHN TIERNEY,
Willpower:
Rediscovering Our Greatest Strength

JESSE J. PRINZ,
Beyond Human Nature: How Culture and Experience Shape Our Lives

ROBERT HOLLAND,
Blue-Water Empire: The British in the Mediterranean since 1800

JODI KANTOR,
The Obamas: A Mission, A Marriage

PHILIP COGGAN,
Paper Promises: Money, Debt and the New World Order

CHARLES NICHOLL,
Traces Remain: Essays and Explorations

DANIEL KAHNEMAN,
Thinking, Fast and Slow

HUNTER S. THOMPSON,
Fear and Loathing at Rolling Stone: The Essential Writing of Hunter S. Thompson

DUNCAN CAMPBELL-SMITH,
Masters of the Post: The Authorized History of the Royal Mail

COLIN MCEVEDY,
Cities of the Classical World: An Atlas and Gazetteer of 120 Centres of Ancient Civilization

HEIKE B. GÖRTEMAKER,
Eva Braun: Life with Hitler

BRIAN COX AND JEFF FORSHAW,
The Quantum Universe: Everything that Can Happen Does Happen

NATHAN D. WOLFE,
The Viral Storm: The Dawn of a New Pandemic Age

NORMAN DAVIES,
Vanished Kingdoms: The History of Half-Forgotten Europe

MICHAEL LEWIS,
Boomerang: The Meltdown Tour

STEVEN PINKER,
The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes

ROBERT TRIVERS,
Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others

THOMAS PENN,
Winter King: The Dawn of Tudor England

DANIEL YERGIN,
The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World

MICHAEL MOORE,
Here Comes Trouble: Stories from My Life

ALI SOUFAN,
The Black Banners: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda

JASON BURKE,
The 9/11 Wars

TIMOTHY D. WILSON,
Redirect: The Surprising New Science of Psychological Change

IAN KERSHAW,
The End: Hitler’s Germany, 1944-45

T M DEVINE,
To the Ends of the Earth: Scotland’s Global Diaspora, 1750-2010

CATHERINE HAKIM,
Honey Money: The Power of Erotic Capital

DOUGLAS EDWARDS,
I’m Feeling Lucky: The Confessions of Google Employee Number 59

JOHN BRADSHAW,
In Defence of Dogs

CHRIS STRINGER,
The Origin of Our Species

LILA AZAM ZANGANEH,
The Enchanter: Nabokov and Happiness

DAVID STEVENSON,
With Our Backs to the Wall: Victory and Defeat in 1918

EVELYN JUERS,
House of Exile: War, Love and Literature, from Berlin to Los Angeles

HENRY KISSINGER,
On China

MICHIO KAKU,
Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

DAVID ABULAFIA,
The Great Sea: A Human History of the Mediterranean

JOHN GRIBBIN,
The Reason Why: The Miracle of Life on Earth

ANATOL LIEVEN,
Pakistan: A Hard Country

WILLIAM D COHAN,
Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World

JOSHUA FOER,
Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything

SIMON BARON-COHEN,
Zero Degrees of Empathy: A New Theory of Human Cruelty

MANNING MARABLE
, Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention

DAVID DEUTSCH,
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations that Transform the World

DAVID EDGERTON,
Britain’s War Machine: Weapons, Resources and Experts in the Second World War

JOHN KASARDA AND GREG LINDSAY,
Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next

DAVID GILMOUR,
The Pursuit of Italy: A History of a Land, its Regions and their Peoples

NIALL FERGUSON,
Civilization: The West and the Rest

TIM FLANNERY,
Here on Earth: A New Beginning

ROBERT BICKERS,
The Scramble for China: Foreign Devils in the Qing Empire, 1832-1914

MARK MALLOCH-BROWN,
The Unfinished Global Revolution: The Limits of Nations and the Pursuit of a New Politics

KING ABDULLAH OF JORDAN,
Our Last Best Chance: The Pursuit of Peace in a Time of Peril

ELIZA GRISWOLD,
The Tenth Parallel: Dispatches from the Faultline between Christianity and Islam

BRIAN GREENE,
The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos