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Authors: Kevin Kelly

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31 six to eight children in agricultural communities:
Robert L. Kelly. (1995)
The Foraging Spectrum: Diversity in Hunter-Gatherer Lifeways.
Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press, p. 244.
31 at 16 or 17 years old:
Ibid., p. 245.
31 suckling for as long as 6 years:
Ibid., p. 247.
31 “rate of population growth increases”:
Ibid., p. 254.
32 close encounters with large, angry animals:
Juan Luis de Arsuaga, Andy Klatt, et al. (2002)
The Neanderthal's Necklace: In Search of the First Thinkers.
New York: Four Walls Eight Windows, p. 221.
33 “longevity in the modern humans” began about 50,000 years ago:
Rachel Caspari and Sang-Hee Lee. (2004) “Older Age Becomes Common Late in Human Evolution.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
101 (30).
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/30/10895.abstract
.
34 a shirt, a jacket, trousers, and moccasins:
Robert L. Kelly. (1995)
The Foraging Spectrum: Diversity in Hunter-Gatherer Lifeways.
Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press.
35 (in war between tribes):
Lawrence H. Keeley. (1997)
War Before Civilization.
New York: Oxford University Press, p. 89.
35 Comparison of War Fatality Rates:
Data from Lawrence H. Keeley. (1997)
War Before Civilization
. New York: Oxford University Press, p. 89.
36 in his survey of early warfare:
Ibid., pp. 174-75.
36 how far you could go with a handful of tools:
Carl Haub. (1995) “How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?—Population Reference Bureau.” Population Reference Bureau.
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx
.
37 for the previous six million years:
Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending. (2009)
The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution.
New York: Basic Books, p. 1.
38 northernmost portions of the planet by now:
William F. Ruddiman. (2005)
Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate.
Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, p. 12.
39 aristocratic feudalism in Europe:
John Sloan. (1994) “The Stirrup Thesis.”
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/med/sloan.html
.
40 “and the process of Science began”:
John Brockman. (2000)
The Greatest Inventions of the Past 2,000 Years.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 142.
41 “structure, organization, information, and control”:
Richard Rhodes. (1999)
Visions of Technology: Machines, Systems and the Human World.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 188.
3. History of the Seventh Kingdom
43 time: four billion years:
Lynn Margulis. (1986)
Microcosmos: Four Billion Years of Evolution from Our Microbial Ancestors.
New York: Summit Books.
45 “combinatorial evolution is foremost, and routine”:
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves.
New York: Free Press, p. 188.
46 the major transitions in biological organization were:
John Maynard Smith and Eors Szathmary. (1997)
The Major Transitions in Evolution.
New York: Oxford University Press.
50 punctuated, stepwise evolution:
Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge. (1977) “Punctuated Equilibria: The Tempo and Mode of Evolution Reconsidered.”
Paleobiology,
3 (2).
50 some dating back to 1825:
Belinda Barnet and Niles Eldredge. (2004) “Material Cultural Evolution: An Interview with Niles Eldredge.”
Fibreculture Journal
, (3).
http://journal.fibreculture.org/issue3/issue3_barnet.html
.
51 Evolutionary Tree of Cornets:
Data from Ilya Temkin and Niles Eldredge. (2007) “Phylogenetics and Material Cultural Evolution.”
Current Anthropology,
48 (1).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/510463
.
51 “bilaterally symmetrical conformation of the ancestral fish”:
Belinda Barnet and Niles Eldredge. (2004) “Material Cultural Evolution: An Interview with Niles Eldredge.”
Fibreculture Journal
(3).
http://journal.fibreculture.org/issue3/issue3_barnet.html
.
52 A Thousand Years of Helmet Evolution:
Bashford Dean. (1916)
Notes on Arms and Armor.
New York: Metropolitan Museum of Art, p. 115.
53 power delivered to them by overhead driveshafts:
David Nye. (2006)
Technology Matters: Questions to Live With.
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 57.
54 Catalogs of Durable Goods:
Aaron Montgomery Ward and Joseph J. Schroeder, Jr. (1977)
Montgomery Ward & Co 1894-95 Catalogue & Buyers Guide, No. 56.
Northfield, IL: DBI Books, p. 562. Right-hand portion of this side-by-side comparison assembled by the author.
55 brand-new spear and arrow points per year:
John Charles Whittaker. (2004)
American Flintknappers
. Austin: University of Texas Press, p. 266.
55 to highlight the ephemeral nature of popular gadgetry:
Bruce Sterling. (1995, September 15) “The Life and Death of Media.” Sixth International Symposium on Electronic Art ISEA, Montreal.
http://www.alamut.com/subj/artiface/deadMedia/dM_Address.html
. The Dead Media project is now defunct.
4. The Rise of Exotropy
58 the beginning of time, billions of years ago:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2009) “How Old Is the Universe?”
http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/universe/uni_age.html
.
60 Power Density Gradient:
Data from Eric J. Chaisson. (2002)
Cosmic Evolution.
Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, p. 139.
60 shines the computer chip:
Eric J. Chaisson. (2005)
Epic of Evolution: Seven Ages of the Cosmos.
New York: Columbia University Press.
65 Dominant Eras of the Universe:
Designed by the author.
66 per genetic lineage (such as a parrot or a wallaby):
Motoo Kimura and Naoyuki Takahata. (1994)
Population Genetics, Molecular Evolution, and the Neutral Theory.
Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
67 “precisely because it evades chemical imperatives”:
Paul Davies. (1999)
The Fifth Miracle: The Search for the Origin and Meaning of Life.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 256.
67 “financial and legal advice, and the like”:
Richard Fisher. (2008) “Selling Our Services to the World (with an Ode to Chicago).” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080417.cfm
.
68 The Dematerialization of U.S. Exports:
Data from “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Balance of Payments Basis, 1960-2004.” U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.
http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/industry/OTEA/usfth/aggregate/H04t01.html
.
69 rather than manufactured goods (atoms):
Robert E. Lipsey. (2009) “Measuring International Trade in Services.”
International Trade in Services and Intangibles in the Era of Globalization,
eds. Mathew J. Slaughter and Marshall Reinsdorf. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, p. 60.
5. Deep Progress
74 “more good than evil in the world—but not by much”:
Matthew Fox and Rupert Sheldrake. (1996)
The Physics of Angels: Exploring the Realm Where Science and Spirit Meet.
San Francisco: HarperSanFrancisco, p. 129.
75 hoping to survive on those crowded shelves:
Barry Schwartz. (2004)
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less.
New York: Ecco, p. 12.
75 at least 30 million of them in use worldwide:
GS1 US. (2010, January 7) In discussion with the author's researcher. Jon Mellor, of GS1 US, explains that 1.2 million company prefixes have been issued worldwide. This is the first string of numbers used in both UPC and EAN bar codes. Based on this, he estimates the number of active UPC/EANs worldwide to be 30-48 million.
76 contained 18,000 objects:
David Starkey. (1998)
The Inventories of King Henry VIII
. London: Harvey Miller Publishers.
77 surrounded by all their possessions:
Peter Menzel. (1995)
Material World: A Global Family Portrait.
San Francisco: Sierra Club Books.
78 objects in the entire estate:
Edward Waterhouse and Henry Briggs. (1970) “A declaration of the state of the colony in Virginia.” The English experience, its record in early printed books published in facsimile, no. 276. Amsterdam: Theatrum Orbis Terrarum.
78 now-classic study by Richard Easterlin in 1974:
Richard A. Easterlin. (1996)
Growth Triumphant.
Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
78 affluence brings increased satisfaction:
David Leonhardt. (2008, April 16) “Maybe Money Does Buy Happiness After All.”
New York Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/16/business/16leonhardt.html
.
80 only a small percentage of humans lived in cities:
United States Census Bureau. (2008) “Historical Estimates of World Population.”
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html
; George Modelski. (2003)
World Cities
. Washington, D.C.: Faros.
80 now 50 percent do:
United Nations. (2007) “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision.”
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007wup.htm
.
81 Global Urban Population:
The author's calculations based on data from United States Census Bureau. (2008) “Historical Estimates of World Population.”
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html
; United Nations. (2007) “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision.”
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007wup.htm
; Tertius Chandler. (1987)
Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census.
Lewiston, N.Y.: Edwin Mellen Press; George Modelski. (2003)
World Cities
. Washington, D.C.: Faros.
82 Paris in the Middle Ages:
Bronislaw Geremek, Jean-Claude Schmitt, et al. (2006)
The Margins of Society in Late Medieval Paris
. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, p. 81.
83 “where they huddle around a fireplace”:
Joseph Gies and Frances Gies. (1981)
Life in a Medieval City.
New York: HarperCollins, p. 34.
83 slum at its peak in the 1880s:
Robert Neuwirth. (2006)
Shadow Cities.
New York: Routledge.
83 “this serves all the purposes of the family”:
Ibid., p. 177.
83 “bona fide legal title to their land”:
Ibid., p. 198.
83 “half a dozen tents or shanties”:
Ibid., p. 197.
84 “Cities are wealth creators”:
Stewart Brand. (2009)
Whole Earth Discipline
. New York: Viking, p. 25.
84 “nearly 9 in 10 new patented innovations”:
Ibid., p. 32.
84 “GNP growth occurs in cities”:
Ibid., p. 31.
84 “in the city at least six years”:
Mike Davis. (2006)
Planet of Slums
. London: Verso, p. 36.
85 but 94 percent of their kids were literate:
Stewart Brand. (2009)
Whole Earth Discipline
. New York: Viking, pp. 42-43.
85 “Discomfort is an investment”:
Ibid., p. 36.
85 “get education for her children”:
Ibid., p. 26.
86 “more options for their future”:
Donovan Webster. (2005) “Empty Quarter.”
National Geographic
, 207 (2).
88 “drawing that was pointed up”:
Gregg Easterbrook. (2003)
The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse
. New York: Random House, p. 163.
92 World Population in Civilization:
Data from United States Census Bureau. (2008) “Historical Estimates of World Population.”
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html
.
93 only in expanding population:
Niall Ferguson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
93 prime source of deep progress:
Julian Lincoln Simon. (1996)
The Ultimate Resource 2.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
94 World Population Forecasts:
Data from United Nations Population Division. (2002) “World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision.”
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/WPP2002-HIGHLIGHTSrev1.pdf
.
94 that is, for the next 300 years:
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2004) “World Population to 2300.”
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
.
95 Estimated Long-Range World Population:
Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2004) “World Population to 2300.”
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
.
95 every country in Europe is below 2.0:
Rand Corporation. (2005) “Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union.”
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html
.
95 Japan is at 1.34:
(2008, June 24) “Negligible Rise in Fertility Rate.”
Japan Times Online
.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ed20080624a1.html
.
96 Recent Fertility Rates in Europe:
Data from Rand Corporation. (2005) “Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union.”
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html
.

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