The Viral Epiphany (34 page)

           
General Baker slowly turned away from the screen. Then, with a surprised look on his face, he said to Franklin. “You mean everyone in New York City is dead?”

           
“No. Not at all,” Franklin replied,
 
“Although, I must admit the idea did cross my mind the first time I saw the live shots of Manhattan. Take a look at this,” He pressed another button on the remote control and the picture changed to a view of an apartment building complex on the Hudson River.
 
“This is from a different Sentinel.
 
It has just come up over the horizon, so instead of looking straight down, like the last one, here the view is pretty much horizontal to the ground.”
 

           
General Baker said nothing as he nodded his head.
 
“Now, watch this as I zoom in.”
 
He pressed another button and the screen soon filled with image of a single apartment building and then it kept on zooming until a single window occupied the entire screen.
 
“OK, now watch.”

           
General Baker looked at the window and for fifteen seconds it only appeared to be an ordinary window; then he saw a woman walk across the screen from left to right.
 
Seconds later she walked back in the other direction.
 
He turned to Franklin for an explanation.

           
“You’d be surprised what you can see,” Franklin said with a conspiratorial smile.
 
General Baker simply stared at him and said nothing.

           
Franklin suddenly stopped smiling, turned back to the screen, and said, “They’re not dead, John.
 
They’re hiding inside their homes and apartments. It’s funny; they’re doing just what that guy from UNAPS was trying to force them to do. They all rebelled like crazy then… but they’re not rebelling anymore, are they?” he said with a chuckle.

           
General Baker looked at him for several seconds, but then, with a small shake of his head, gave up trying to understand him.
 
The son of a bitch has absolutely no trace of empathy, does he?
he thought.
 
“So what have you learned, Franklin?
 
How well are the models working?”

           
“John, your models aren’t worth shit – and that’s a fact.” He reached in the cardboard box next to him and took out another donut.
 
“See, here’s the problem: your people made their disease propagation estimate based upon the bug spreading as a Gaussian distribution function. You know, the peak is at the origin and there are gradually fewer and fewer cases as you go further from the center.” He took a large bite of the donut.
 
“The problem is that this is a dynamic process and the Gaussian distribution function doesn’t provide for a time-varying effect.
 
The Gaussian is, at best, only an approximation of the final, steady state, solution.
 
It can’t be used to provide an up to date model of the daily progress of the disease.
 
Nor can it predict the ultimate outcome, with any accuracy, either.”

           
“Here’s what I did,” he said as he switched the remote control to show a photo of the greater New York City area and its surroundings taken from a lower resolution satellite. “I looked at the data from visible and infrared satellite detection systems, plus some data from the orbiting millimeter wave radar satellites, and looked for indicators like motion, heat, people standing around, and of course pictures of bodies too.”

           
General Baker continued staring at the screen but said nothing.

           
“It turns out that the dynamic spreading pattern is more like what you see when you throw a rock in a pond.
 
You know, a big splash in the middle and then ripples spreading out from the center.
 
In our case the peaks of the ripples correspond to those areas with a high incidence of disease cases and the space between ripples indicates a very low incidence of cases.”

           
“Interesting,” General Baker said, “What do you think is going on?
 
I mean, why would it be like that?”

           
“Human behavior. First the people flee the disease epicenter but they don’t stop just on the outskirts of the city; they want to put a buffer between themselves and the disease. The problem is that the very people who are running away are carrying the disease themselves!
 
When they get a certain distance away from the origin of the disease they stop. Then, a few days later the disease breaks out there.
 
That is the first ripple.
 
Then the whole process starts all over again and the next ripple forms and then the next.
 
Here, look at this overlay.”

           
He pressed a button on the remote and a bright red undulating graph appeared showing a very high peak in the center of New York City that then dropped to zero on the outskirts of the city.
 
It then went up again about ten miles away and then dropped a few miles further out.
 
“When I first saw this effect I was reminded of the Airy function that is used in optics to describe the diffraction of light by a circular aperture.”
 
He looked over at General Baker but he didn’t see any look of comprehension on the General’s face.
 
“So,” he continued,
 
“I thought I would try using that as a starting point in the computer coefficient regression process. I was able to get a very good fit for the New York data with seven eigenvalues.”

           
“I don’t think I follow you exactly, Franklin.”

           
“Yeah, I didn’t think so,” he said with a broad smile. “Anyway, the bottom line is that I have restructured your propagation model and made it work a lot better by getting rid of the Gaussian distribution propagation assumption.”

           
“I see.”

           
“Yeah. You know, all this disease data that has come in from the satellites has been really valuable. I mean; this is so cool!” Franklin was truly beaming.
 
“I think we really have a model now that will serve us well in the future – I mean if we ever decide to weaponize Asian Fever.”

           
General Baker looked at him again for several seconds.
 
Then he said, “I see.
 
That’s interesting.
 
But tell me, Franklin, have you run the new propagation simulation to its ultimate conclusion? Do we know how far the disease will go?”

           
Franklin smiled brightly, “Of course. I couldn’t resist.
 
I’m sure you must know that!”

           
“Yes,” General Baker returned a weak smile, “I do.
 
What was the result?”

           
‘There’s no doubt the disease will sweep across the entire world and wipeout the human race – at least that part of it which does not enjoy the protection we do here.”

           
“What about the ripples?” General Baker said,
 
“the places in between the disease peaks?
 
Won’t people survive there?”

           
“Oh, sure - but only for a while.
 
The simulation shows that eventually the ripples smooth out.
 
That means the disease just spreads everywhere – so people die everywhere.
 
It’s just simple math.”

           
“So there’s no hope?”

           
“What? Oh no! No, no, no, no, no! There is hope, but something must be done soon.
 
My guess is within a week or two. We have to insert a new variable – something to perturb the equation.
 
That’s all.”

           
“What’s that?” General Baker asked.
           
“Operation Clean Sweep,” he said with a self-satisfied smile,
 
“You have to start it soon and take out the epicenters.
 
I would guess probably the first and second ripples too. See, the epicenter and the first couple of ripples act as a source, a reservoir, of the disease.
 
I ran this case too and the model predicts that if those are eliminated, the remaining population density is insufficient to support successful propagation.”

           
“So that means…”

“It means essentially that the disease will burn itself out in the rural areas if the main disease reservoirs are deleted from the equation.”

           
“By using Clean Sweep – the nuclear cleansing option.” General Baker said quietly.

           
“Yes,” Franklin said with a satisfied smile, “just delete the reservoirs.”

Thirty-Four

           
It was winter, as seasons were reckoned in Ireland, but it seemed to Dan that he had fallen asleep in the warm summer sun.
 
He had closed his eyes and was lying on a bed of soft green grass on the gentle slope of a small hill that was sprinkled with blue and yellow wildflowers.
 
He could smell the sweet fragrance of the flowers that floated on the breeze, the same breeze that was now lightly ruffling his hair.
 
Perhaps I’ve fallen asleep on the edge of a fairy hill,
he thought,
and now I have fallen under their spell.
 
I don’t know why the old stories warn us to beware of the fairies;
this is so much more beautiful and peaceful than the real world.
 
I could stay here forever…

Then, unexpectedly, he felt a soft, smooth touch, a touch as light as a feather, on his lips.
 
He smiled at the sensation and slowly opened his eyes and, there, just above him were the sparkling, laughing, emerald green eyes of a fairy princess.
 
Her long hair touched his cheeks as she kissed him again.

           
“Wake up, Dan” she said.
 
“Wake up, my hero.”
 
She kissed him again and laughed lightly at his bewilderment.
 
He blinked in the bright sunshine, unable to take his eyes away from hers.

           
“Sheila?” he said, not really sure if he was awake or still dreaming.

           
“Come on, Dan,” Sheila said, laughing again. “Wake up!
 
It’s almost nine o’clock!” She sat up straight now on their bed, and Dan could see that she was naked in the warm rays of the sun that shone through the window and seemed to lovingly caress her youthful body.
 
Dan smiled back at her as he rubbed his eyes.

           
“Good morning, Sheila,” he said. “I had the best dream…”

           
Sheila smiled mischievously at him.
 
“Are you sure it was a dream?” she asked and then she got up and walked over to the dresser to put on a pair of panties and jeans. “I’ll have the coffee ready in a few minutes,” she said as she pulled on an over-large, gray and blue, sweatshirt. “Would you like the full Irish too?”

           
“I think I already had it,” Dan replied with a laugh, “or maybe it was just a dream.”

           
Sheila laughed and said, “Oh, I think that must have been a dream, Dan.
 
I’ll just make you a big breakfast. I think you need some energy after your dreams!” She closed the door and went into the kitchen while Dan slowly stretched and then got out of bed.
 
Five minutes later Dan sat down at the table.

“You just missed Brendan,” she said to him, “He said he was going to meet with one of the other pharmaceutical companies for an hour or so to go over some of the vaccine production details.
 
I don’t think he needs us to help him there.”

           
“I’m sure he doesn’t,” Dan replied.
 
“He’ll be fine.” He was quiet for a few moments.

           
“What is it?” Sheila asked.

           
“It’s the vaccine,” he said looking at her, “we need to find a way to get it to the rest of the world.
 
We can’t just take care of ourselves.”

           
“I know, but what can we do?
 
You already spoke to your friend at the U.S. CDC but they never called you back.”

           
“Yes, but now the President is coming here to get the vaccine!
 
It doesn’t make sense.
 
Maybe I should call the CDC again.”

Sheila placed his breakfast on the table and sat down across from him while he poured cups of coffee for each of them.
 
As he placed the coffee pot back on the table he looked over at her and said, “What do you think?”

“I think you’re right, Dan. Give him a call!”

           
Dan nodded and then without another word, he picked up his phone and dialed the number for Harry Field’s direct line at the CDC.
 
Harry picked it up on the first ring.
 
They exchanged very brief pleasantries and then Harry gave him the bad news: he wasn’t able to get permission to start production of the vaccine.

           
“What?” Dan asked, “Don’t they realize it could save a lot of people’s lives?”

           
“I’m sorry, Dan. They just said ‘No’,” he replied.

           
Dan waited a moment before continuing and then said quietly, “Harry, you believe me, don’t you?”

           
“Yes, I do. But I don’t have the authority…”

           
“Wait, Harry. Listen to me. You have to do something!
 
This vaccine is already being mass-produced here. It will work; you have to trust me on this.
 
The thing is that our manufacturers can only make enough for the Irish population, but with the capacity of the American pharmaceutical industry, why you could make enough for the entire world!”

           
“Dan, you don’t understand how bad it is here. I don’t even have anyone to go to anymore,” Harry said,
 
“Charles Goodfellow, the UNAPS guy the President appointed to oversee America’s defense against the disease, has simply disappeared. Then the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff proclaimed he’s in charge, and now I just heard that he has died from the disease himself!”

           
“So who’s in charge now?”

           
“I have no idea!
 
That’s just it! And no one seems to know where the President is, and the whole system is just collapsing around us!”

           
Dan looked at Sheila in stunned silence.
 
Life in Ireland had barely changed. Except for the quarantine around the Clonakilty area, pending the vaccine distribution, everything was almost normal.
 
How could things have gotten so bad, so fast?
he wondered.
It’s almost like they’re in a different world over there.
 
Then he thought of the President. “Harry, wait a minute!
 
President Cranston is on his way here!”

           
“What?”

           
“Yes, he called me yesterday from a submarine named
Seawolf.
 
He wants me to give our vaccine to everyone on board!”

           
“The President is going to take the vaccine himself?”

           
“Yes!”

           
Harry didn’t say anything for a few seconds. Then he replied, “OK, Dan.
 
I’m with you. If your vaccine is good enough for the President it’s good enough for me and everyone else. I’m going to authorize production on my own.
 
I’ll get our pharmaceutical companies to start production today!”

           
Dan smiled when he heard the words, “Great!”

           
“Can you send me the computer code for the vaccine fabrication?”

           
“I’ll have it on the way in a few minutes.”

           
“Good,” Harry said, “How long will it take to distribute the vaccine over there?”

“The pharmaceutical companies will begin shipping the vaccine to over fifty distribution centers around the country very soon, probably by early next week.
 
We think we can get everyone vaccinated within a month, maybe less.”

           
 
“I think that’s where we will run into problems, Dan,” he said, “here and in other parts of the world.
 
You can vaccinate people in Ireland fairly easily, but there are almost three hundred million people in America, and there are almost six billion in the world.
 
We could never inoculate the majority of the people that way.
 
Most of them will never have a chance to get the vaccine even if we manufacture enough of it.”

“I know, Harry.
 
I don’t have a simple solution for that.
 
We just have to do what we can.
 
It’s certainly better than doing nothing.” Dan replied.

“I agree.
 
OK, I’ll make sure we get production started today.
 
We could probably make hundreds of millions of doses within a week, probably enough for everyone in the world within two weeks. We’ll just do the best we can.”

           
Dan put down the phone and turned to Sheila. “They’re going to start vaccine production today!”

           
“That’s great news!” she said. “I think it’s up to the Americans now, with their massive production capabilities. We’ve done what we can here.”
 
She suddenly stood up and quickly walked over to the window.
 
Outside, in the branches of an oak tree there was a group of birds, magpies that were jumping from branch to branch.

           
“What is it Sheila?” Dan asked

She turned back from the window and said, “I just remembered.
 
I had a dream too.”

           
Dan had seen that expression on her face before.
 
“What was it? Did you see something?”

           
“I don’t know.
 
It seemed important, but I don’t understand it.
 
Not all of it anyway.”

           
“Tell it to me,” Dan said.

           
She looked at him and smiled.
 
“You haven’t even touched your breakfast!
 
You start eating, OK?
 
Then I’ll tell you.”

           
“OK,” he said and quickly took a bite of the eggs with sausage. “Now, go ahead.”

           
“I dreamed I was in some cold place, a place unknown to me,” she said.
 
“It was dark: very, very dark.
 
I tried to see but I couldn’t even see my own hand when I held it up in front of me.
 
Yet, I knew, I could feel, that there was something in the darkness: something evil, and very strong, a malevolence that was darker than darkness, and it moved in utter silence.
 
It was very frightening.”

           
“What does it mean?”

           
“I have no idea, but there was more.”

           
“What else?” Dan asked as he felt a slight chill.

           
“Suddenly, the darkness lifted and I was standing beside you on the seashore.
 
I looked out over the ocean and I saw them.”

           
“Who?

Sheila looked out the window again and her voice became hushed.
 
“ The birds.
 
There were seven black and white birds, magpies.
 
They flew high above us, and almost landed in a tree, but then, suddenly, as if they had changed their minds, they turned and flew north and disappeared over the horizon.”
 
She looked at Dan, but he said nothing.
 
She could tell that he was paying rapt attention now.

“ As soon as the magpies had gone, the wild geese came.” she continued. “There were so many of them, all flying in V-shaped formations. One group after another they flew in over the ocean, all gray and black and making a raucous noise. Then, after the geese, there were swans, huge white swans.
 
So many swans flying together in formation, like the geese. And they all flew over us, and I thought they were going to land here.
 
But none of them landed in Ireland. They just flew so high above us. There must have been thousands of them.”
 
She looked up at him and blinked and smiled. “What do you think?”

“I don’t know Sheila,” he said.
 
“I thought you were the expert on dreams. But isn’t ‘Wild Geese’ a term that refers to the warriors of Ireland who left centuries ago?”

“Yes, the Wild Geese tradition began when the last of the
galloglas
warriors who fought the English invasions in the sixteenth century left Ireland to join other armies and continue their fight against English domination.
 
Legend has it that when the Wild Geese return Ireland will regain its independence.”