The Great Disruption (36 page)

  
9
. Dollars or euros per ton of CO
2
e is a measure of the estimated cost to take actions to achieve a ton of CO
2
e reduction. The McKinsey study referred to categorized various actions (for instance, energy efficiency, nuclear power, solar panels, auto efficiency) into various cost categories.

10
. See Prince's Rainforests Project,
An Emergency Package for Tropical Forests
, March 2009, http://www.princeofwales.gov.uk/content/documents/Report%20%20March%202009.pdf.

11
. In this paper we assume there will be some six thousand major power plants in operation in 2018 (against some five thousand today). We assume that one thousand of these are closed down during the C-war in 2018–2023 (reducing emissions by 5 GtCO
2
e/yr) and that a further one thousand plants will be retrofitted with CCS equipment (reducing emissions by a further 2 GtCO
2
e by 2023). A big CCS plant sequesters on average 2 MtCO
2
/yr—roughly 1 in a gas-fired utility and roughly 3 in a coal-fired utility.

12
. CCS refers to various technologies designed to capture the carbon emitted from burning coal in power plants, then concentrating it and transporting it to underground basins, where it can be locked up indefinitely.

13
. See http://www.desertec.org.

14
. See Mark Z. Jacobson (Stanford University) and Mark A. Delucchi (University of California, Davis) in “A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables,”
Scientific American
, November 2009, where an article summarizes their full study.

15
. See V. R. Cardozier,
The Mobilization of the United States in World War II: How the Government, Military and Industry Prepared for War
(1995), especially chapter 10 (Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland, 1995).

16
. Gilding and Randers, “The One Degree War Plan,”
Journal of Global Responsibility
, vol. 1, Issue 1 (2010).

CHAPTER 11: HOW AN AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST COULD SAVE THE WORLD

  
1
.
New York Times
, December 18, 2008.

  
2
. For an overview of DuPont's performance and approach see: Scot Holliday, “A Case Study of How DuPont Reduced Its Environment Footprint: The Role of Organizational Change in Sustainability,” dissertation at The George Washington University, Washington, D.C (2010).

  
3
. See various papers at http://www.isc.hbs.edu/soci-environmental.htm, including a twenty-year review of Porter's hypothesis at http://www.isc.hbs.edu/PorterHypothesis_Montreal2010.htm.

CHAPTER 12: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS

  
1
. A U.K. review by the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology finds that coal power typically generates in excess of 1,000 grams CO
2
e per kWh, versus 4.64 for onshore and 5.25 for offshore wind. That is, about 200 to 1, or a 99.5 percent reduction. See http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn268.pdf.

  
2
. From Al Gore,
Our Choice
(New York: Rodale, 2009), p. 57.

  
3
. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/08/05/the_ministry_of_oil_defense

  
4
. See Mark Z. Jacobson (Stanford University) and Mark A. Delucchi (University of California) in “A plan to power 100 percent of the planet with Renewables,”
Scientific American
, November 2009, where an article summarizes their full study.

  
5
. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21),
Renewables 2010: Global Status Report
, 2010. REN21 is a network of governments, international organizations including the International Energy Agency, international NGOs, and industry. Available online at http://www.ren21.net/. See also UNEP, “Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010 Report,” available at http://sefi.unep.org/english/globaltrends2010.html.

  
6
. United States Energy Information Administration, statistics available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=electricity _home#tab2.

  
7
. See summary article at http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article /IEA-cleantech-low-carbon-energy-technology-emissio-pd20100705 -73F5M.

  
8
. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/sizing-low-carbon-economy.

CHAPTER 13: SHIFTING SANDS

  
1
. See http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/opinion/05friedman.html.

  
2
. See http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/18/worlds-top-firms-environmental-damage.

CHAPTER 14: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

  
1
.
A Steady-State Economy
, commissioned by the Sustainable Development Commission, April 24, 2008, http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=775.

  
2
. Ibid.

  
3
. Representative Barber Conable is credited as the source of this quote.

  
4
. See http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/sizing-low-carbon-economy.

CHAPTER 15: THE HAPPINESS ECONOMY

  
1
. Adam Smith,
An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
, 5th ed., edited by Edwin Cannan (London: Methuen & Co., Ltd., 1904).

  
2
. Centre for the Advancement of Steady State Economics, http://steadystate.org.

  
3
. See http://www.happyplanetindex.org.

  
4
. Paper by Professor Clive Hamilton and Professor Tim Kasser, presented at Oxford University conference 2009, 4 degrees and beyond, http://www.clivehamilton.net.au/cms/media/documents/articles/oxford_four_degrees_paper _final.pdf.

CHAPTER 16: YES, THERE IS LIFE AFTER SHOPPING

  
1
. See http://noimpactman.typepad.com/blog/2007/02/the_personal_im.html.

  
2
. See http://www.drewsmarketingminute.com/2008/09/how-to-market-t.html.

  
3
. See http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0929-04.htm.

  
4
. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1538555/The-year-of-living-frugally-how-10-friends-survived-without-shopping.html.

  
5
. See http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment /music/article6281684.ece and Reverend Billy's site at www.revbilly.com.

  
6
. See http://www.latimes.com/news/science/environment/la-me-story-of-stuff-20100713,0,2775603,full.story.

  
7
. See http://www.neweconomics.org/projects/five-ways-well-being.

  
8
. See http://www.lohas.com/forum/lohas8/market/index.html.

  
9
. See http://www.ota.com/pics/documents/2010OrganicIndustrySurveySummary.pdf.

CHAPTER 17: NO, THE POOR WILL
NOT
ALWAYS BE WITH US

  
1
. Barry Bosworth and Susan M. Collins, “Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India,”
Journal of Economic Perspectives
22, no. 1 (Winter 2008): 45–66.

  
2
. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economic Research,
The World Distribution of Household Wealth
(2006), available online at http://www.wider.unu.edu/.

  
3
. Angus Maddison,
The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective
(OECD, 2001), available online at http://www.theworldeconomy.org/.

  
4
. I first heard this analogy in a conversation with Charles Secret from the New Economics Foundation.

  
5
. Royal United Services Institute, “Delivering Climate Security: International Security Responses to a Climate Changed World,”
Whitehall Papers
69 (2007, published April 2008).

  
6
. Marshall B. Burkea et al., “Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
106, no. 49 (2009).

  
7
. Gwynne Dyer,
Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats
(Toronto: Random House Canada, 2008).

CHAPTER 18: INEFFECTIVE INEQUALITY

  
1
. See http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/556.

  
2
. Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett,
The Spirit Level: Why Greater
Equality Makes Societies Stronger
(New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2010) and Richard Wilkinson,
Unhealthy Societies: The Affliction of Inequality
(London: Routledge, 1996).

  
3
. Ibid.

  
4
. Daniel B. Klein and Charlotta Stern, “ ‘Economists' policy views and voting,”
Public Choice
126 (2006): 331-342.

CHAPTER 19: THE FUTURE IS HERE, IT'S JUST NOT WIDELY DISTRIBUTED YET

  
1
. Adopted from a quote by author William Gibson.

  
2
. See http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/ams.fetchTemplateData.do?template=TemplateS&navID=WholesaleandFarmersMarkets&leftNav =WholesaleandFarmersMarkets&page=WFMFarmersMarketGrowth&description=Farmers%20Market%20Growth&acct=frmrdirmkt.

  
3
. See http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=395.

  
4
. See http://www.socialinvest.org/resources/sriguide/srifacts.cfm.

  
5
. See http://www.ica.coop/coop/statistics.html.

  
6
.
State of the World 2010
, Worldwatch, “Transforming Cultures: From Consumerism to Sustainability,” article by John de Graff, http://blogs.worldwatch.org/transformingcultures/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/SOW2010-PreviewVersion.pdf.

  
7
. See http://www.mensheds.com.au.

  
8
. See www.cohousing.org.

  
9
. See http://www.womensbusinessresearchcenter.org/research/keyfacts.

10
. See http://connectedthebook.com.

11
. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21
st
Century (REN21), “Renewables 2010: Global Status Report” (2010). REN21 is a network of governments, international organizations including the International Energy Agency, international NGOs and industry, available at http://www.ren21.net/. See also UNEP, “Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010 Report,” available at http://sefi.unep.org/english/globaltrends2010.html.

Further Reading

Here are just a few examples of the many books, papers, and Web sites dealing with the issues covered in this book.

My Web site

My Web site www.paulgilding.com allows you to contact me, sign up for my regular commentary, the
Cockatoo Chronicles
, and to obtain papers such as “The One-Degree War Plan.”

Paul Roberts,
The End of Food
(Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2008).

This book provides excellent insight into what will arguably be the most profound consequence of the Great Disruption—the future of food.

Tim Jackson,
Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet
(London: Earthscan, 2009).

Tim Jackson's very readable book is essential for anyone seeking to understand why we must and how we might transcend economic growth. The United Kingdom's now-disbanded Sustainable Development Commission first published an earlier version of this book in the form of a free report titled “Prosperity Without Growth?”

David MacKay,
Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air
(Cambridge, England: UIT Cambridge, 2009)

This excellent overview of low carbon energy pathways in response to the climate challenge can be downloaded for free or purchased on paper at www .withouthotair.com.

Gwynne Dyer,
Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats
(Toronto: Random House Canada, 2008).

An overview of future geopolitical risks and conflict scenarios viewed through the lens of climate change and sustainability.

Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett,
The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger
(New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2010).

A fuller explanation of the issues covered in the chapter on inequality.

Herman Daly,
Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development
(Boston: Beacon Press, 1997).

Herman Daly is the world's foremost post-growth economist. His work will appeal to those who are interested in understanding the economics in more detail. He's the author of numerous books and papers.
Beyond Growth
is a good place to begin delving into his work.

Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows,
Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
(White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2004).

The book that started so much, updated with thirty years of reality.

Clive Hamilton,
Growth Fetish
(London: Pluto Press, 2004).

Clive Hamilton neatly sums of up the problems of our obsession with growth in this book: buying things we don't need, with money we don't have, to impress people we don't like.

The New Economics Foundation

This U.K.-based organization is consistently at the forefront of understanding our challenges and proposing creative, workable solutions to them. Their publications are all available free online at www.neweconomics.org.

The Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE)

A U.S.-based organization dedicated to advancing the concept of a no-growth, steady-state economy. They provide a Web-based overview of the implications for various aspects of everyday life and society, and suggestions of measures that could start the transition to a steady-state economy. www.steadystate.org.

The Footprint Network

The home of the idea that the economy is operating at over 140% of capacity and increasing every day. This site has all the data and methodology. www.footprintnetwork.org.