The Great Depression (17 page)

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Authors: Benjamin Roth,James Ledbetter,Daniel B. Roth

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DECEMBER 31, 1932
 
Today brings to a close the most difficult and dismal year in my business experience. The outlook for 1933 is not much better. Thirty thousand people in Youngstown are being supported by charity—steel mills operate 13%—begging and holdups and murder are frequent—bankruptcy and receiverships and foreclosures are no longer a disgrace. In 146 cities of the United States “scrip” money is being used or “barter exchanges” have been set up to exchange services for merchandise. Commodity prices are at lowest point in history and stocks are just above their all-time lows. Standard average is 49.
 
In looking back it is interesting to note that expansion of business during a boom is a mistake. The time to expand is at the end of a panic when the economic cycle is headed up again. In 1928 professional men rented larger offices and bought bigger homes—business men established chain stores, etc.—mergers took place—Warner Picture Co. built a million dollar theater in Youngstown etc. In almost every instance this expansion proved to be a mistake. On the other side of the picture it is interesting to note that the Strouss-Hirshberg Co. was started in 1875 after the panic of 1873 and prospered. Herman Ritter tells me he started the Ritter-Meyer Co. just after the panic of 1893 and prospered. He was also far-sighted enough to give up his business just when the present panic started. It is my judgment that in another year or so the time will be ripe to found new enterprises on a conservative basis and then expand slowly as the economic cycle again moves upward.
 
I believe that a fortune in wisely selected stocks could be bought very cheaply just now. The opportunity is here—but no money.
 
 
 
 
1933
 
 
We bid farewell to 1932 without regret and we welcome 1933 with a fervent prayer for better days.
 
JANUARY 6, 1933
 
Prices of all merchandise continue to plunge downward at a dizzy pace. The dollar today buys two and three times as much as it did two years ago.
 
The question of inflation of currency is coming forward as a dominant issue this year. It is being supported by many respectable and well-known economists. Personally I am opposed to it. During the boom everybody piled up debts to a dizzy height. Now it is hard to pay up because of increased value of the dollar. These economists claim that either the debt will have to be cut down or money inflated. The temper of the public is shown by the fact that last week about 500 enraged farmers mobbed a lawyer on the steps of a court house in Kansas when he attempted to bid on a foreclosed farm for the New York Life Insurance Co. at a price that would leave a deficiency judgment. They forced him to get permission to raise his bid to the full price of the mortgage.
 
JANUARY 12, 1933
 
Gasoline is selling at 14¢ per gallon. Out of this 5¢ goes to Ohio tax; 3¢ to the retail gasoline station owner; 2¢ to wholesaler and 4¢ to cost of distribution and transportation and production. Business in almost every line is being run at a loss. It looks as tho 1933 will be given over to the liquidation and reorganization of many businesses.
 
The use of scrip or “white rabbit” money is increasing in many cities. Real money continues to be almost non-existent.
 
After the closing of several large banks in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, there followed the closing of banks in small surrounding towns. Last week the National Bank in Butler closed its doors. It is remarkable how these things take place with terrific loss to small depositors and yet so far there has been no violence.
 
JANUARY 17, 1933
 
Seven banks closed in St. Louis yesterday and a couple more in Kansas. The newspapers are suppressing news of this kind. Bankruptcy among merchants is on the increase and is now reaching the large corporations. Last week McCrory’s went into bankruptcy (large 5¢ and 10¢ chain). I think exorbitant lease rentals is the cause. Other large national bankruptcies are United Cigars; Shulte; Whelan Drugs. Each of these chains had stores in almost every city in the U.S.
 
Protest against real estate foreclosures continues to grow. Youngstown Chamber of Commerce appoints a committee to advise with owner and banks.
 
Three lawyers are disbarred today in Warren: one is suspended and one is reprimanded. In each case they used money belonging to clients. The depression is bringing out many cases of misuse of funds by lawyers, banks, etc.
 
Congress is flooded with all kinds of plans to remedy the currency system. Everything is being advocated from printing money with no banking at all to silver currency.
 
The usual spring rise in the stock market has so far failed to materialize.
 
JANUARY 18, 1933
 
I am reading a book written by Claude Bowers entitled
The Tragic Era
. In it, he describes the panic of 1873 and I am amazed at the similarity to conditions today. He mentions the following high-lights all of which are true of this 1930 panic:
1. The 1873 panic was preceded by Civil War—then 8 or 9 years of hectic prosperity, speculation, rising prices, corruption in government—and then sudden panic, bank closings, etc.
2. In 1873 the farmers revolted for higher prices.
3. Organized movements to stop foreclosures.
4. Wild schemes to inflate currency, greenbacks, etc.
5. Talk against tariff.
6. Untold unemployment and suffering and considerable radical talk about capitalistic system, socialism, etc.—a change of political parties.
 
The panic of 1873 lasted 5 or 6 years and if this is any guide then we have 2 or 3 years more of hard times ahead of us.
 
Good news for Youngstown. The U.S. Army Engineers are ordered to re-survey the Ohio River canal project with the possibility of recommending the building of a canal as far as Struthers.
 
JANUARY 23, 1933
 
Bank closings are again coming to the front. The Warren State Bank of Warren closes last week and again Nate is the loser. This makes the third time he has lost money in bank closings in Warren in the past 18 months. These banks are not closed by runs but by steady withdrawals of depositors caused by necessity and by inability to collect on frozen mortgage loans.
 
All over the country farmers are mobilizing to prevent farm foreclosures. They appear at sheriff sales in mobs and intimidate the lawyers and court officials.
 
JANUARY 28, 1933
 
Conditions get steadily worse and no relief in sight. The Federal Store (a department store on W. Federal St.) closes its doors. For the third time in 2 years the employees of the Strouss-Hirshberg co. get a pay cut. This time 20%. Within the past 6 months about 6 tenants have given up their office rooms on the 6th floor of the Dollar Bank bldg. Office rentals are still too high. Money continues to be scarce and almost non-existent.
 
JANUARY 30, 1933
 
By an overwhelming vote Congress rejects a silver standard currency on a 16 to 1 basis. It seems that other inflationary schemes will be treated the same way.
 
I saw the following prices advertised along W. Federal St. store windows this noon: Bread 3¢ per loaf; hamburg 4 lbs. for 25¢; all steaks @ 15¢ per lb; fresh eggs @ 20¢ doz. Other high-grade stores were advertising men’s overcoats @ $9; ladies shoes at $1.94; ladies dresses @ $1.98; hosiery @ 49¢. All of these prices are about 1/3 of their prices of a year ago.
 
The farmers are the best organized and most militant group in the country today. By intimidation and by suppressing bidding, they have practically created a moratorium on debts. With a Democratic President, they will probably get most of their demands.
 
Since the election of a Democratic President last November the country has been marking time. Likewise the December session of the old out-going lame-duck Congress has accomplished nothing—except to reject silver currency and other patent remedies to bring back prosperity. The new President will have to call a new special session of Congress and business men are waiting to see what it will do.
 
I am reading a book called
War Debts and World Prosperity
. If its reasoning is correct we will probably have to cancel about twelve billion in war loans that Europe owes us. The main argument seems to be that we cannot be a creditor nation and at the same time refuse to accept European merchandise by erecting high tariff walls. The American Public seems to feel we have again been the goat and by cancelling these debts are paying the whole cost of the European war.
 
JANUARY 31, 1933
 
Two large banks close in Atlantic City. These are the first bank closings in the history of that city.
 
JANUARY 31, 1933
 
For the first time since its organization (32 yrs) the U.S. Steel corporation fails to pay the regular dividend on its preferred stock. Dividend on the common was suspended about a year ago.
 
Almost the entire Youngstown police force is gathered on the public square to control a protest parade by unemployed scheduled for this afternoon.
 
FEBRUARY 7, 1933
 
The process of involuntary and voluntary liquidation continues steadily. Bankruptcy receiverships and foreclosures are rapidly cutting down the mountain of debt created during the boom. Real estate and other property is going back to the real owner—the mortgagee and the speculative purchaser on a small margin loses his equity. In the case of the individual this liquidation is usually involuntary. In the case of the large corporation it is often voluntary for the purpose of breaking leases and getting rid of large bond issues, cutting down heavy capitalization etc. I do not see how real recovery can come until this liquidation movement is completed, old debts wiped out and business showing a profit on the basis of present capacity. I also do not believe that any legislation or artificial governmental stimulant can hasten the process. In this process of reorganization a great many holders of stocks and bonds are seeing their investments wiped out. Only the holders of government bonds etc. can feel any degree of safety.
 
In numerous talks with business men I find a higher valuation than ever placed on “financial security” and freedom from want. During the boom in 1928 business men scorned to leave their money in safe investments yielding only 4 or 5%. They sold such securities and bought speculative common stocks. Today the situation is just the reverse. The average man today would place enough money in government bonds so that in any emergency the income from this source alone would provide bread and butter.
 
Likewise the psychology of 1928 is different from that of today. In 1928 people were excited about big profits on the stock market: they read literature about investments, lived high and talked about the “new era.” Today their outlook is gloomy, they think the depression will never end, the stock market is an abomination, real estate is no good, everybody is cynical, etc. Just as the public was mistaken in its excessive optimism of 1928 I believe it is mistaken in its excessive gloom. This situation, however, has created many opportunities for investment today for the man of faith, courage and a little capital. This last item is most important and it simply does not exist in any quantity.
 
FEBRUARY 13, 1933
 
I have done considerable reading about the depressions of 1837 and 1873 and I am struck by the similarity to the present crisis. If history repeats itself then we still have 2 or 3 years of bad times ahead of us. One article I read describes how John Jacob Astor accumulated most of his real estate in New York during the 14 year period from 1835 to 1849. It is entirely possible that the period for accumulation in the present crisis will last another 10 years. If so, I may yet be able to take advantage of it.
 
It is said that just before Astor died he was asked if he did not have too much real estate and he answered: “Could I begin life knowing what I know now I would buy every foot of land in Manhattan.” Of course in his day, the country was agricultural and land was the most popular means of investment. The modern corporation and big business did not then exist. As it is, my own mind is not yet clear as to whether real estate or stocks or bonds or a combination of both is best.
 
 
EDITOR’S NOTE
 
When the crash hit in 1929, President Hoover had taken the position that the unregulated, unabashed speculation in the stock market was to blame for the brutal economic downturn. But he never perceived any systemic problems with the nation’s production, distribution, and mass consumption. At first, Hoover attempted to resolve the nation’s financial crisis with policies to foster credit, convince businesses to maintain wages, and boost production. But joblessness, debt, and frozen bank savings meant that tens of millions of Americans had no money even for the basic necessities. Over time Hoover began to fixate on two alternative tactics to solve the nation’s financial troubles: balancing the domestic budget and boosting international trade with the United States. In the waning months of his presidency’s befuddled attempts to pull the nation out of the Great Depression, Hoover urged Congress, the public, and even President-elect Roosevelt to carry on with his fiscal agenda: balance the budget and forgive Europe’s war debt. Hoover thought the latter would get Europe back on the gold standard and in turn enable it to buy more American goods.
 
In fact, Hoover’s fear of an unbalanced budget could almost be considered an obsession. Between 1929 and fiscal year 1932, federal revenue had dropped in half, while federal spending (on institutions like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation) ballooned by half. The fiscal budget of 1932 was about $2.735 billion. Between December 1931 and May 1932 President Hoover released more than twenty statements about “the absolute necessity of a balanced budget,” according to Schlesinger. Businesses, from the American Bankers Association to the head of General Motors, publicly supported this agenda. And Hoover, in turn, believed that satisfying this fiscal responsibility would provide the confidence that private industry needed to lend and borrow and consequently get people back to work.
 
For Hoover, economic recovery also hinged on salvaging international trade relations. By June 1931 President Hoover was convinced that it was an overproduction of cheaper goods abroad that led to the drop in purchases of American goods by foreigners and increased the purchasing of lower-cost foreign goods in the United States. While Schlesinger points out that the “actual decline in foreign trade balance in 1930 was less than $60 million,” it was Hoover’s own tariff policy that had largely caused this imbalance of trade. The Smoot-Hawley tariff act of June 1930 prevented countries like Britain, Italy, Spain, and France from trading freely in the United States. These countries in turn actually raised barriers against American goods as a means to protect themselves.
 
By the time Congress went into session on December 5, 1932, the lame-duck president was asking Congress to forgive Europe’s war debt. Since Europeans couldn’t sell enough goods on the American market to repay their loans when the United States was the creditor nation of World War I, Hoover believed that a debt settlement would be the way to strengthen the international gold standard and therefore resolve America’s economic problems. Instead, Congress decided to postpone any decision. On February 13, 1933, President Hoover would reiterate his agenda in his farewell address, mostly to polite silence.
 
In the meantime Michigan undertook dramatic action in an attempt to stem its banking panic. On February 14 Michigan governor William A. Comstock ordered an eight-day bank “holiday” to close the banks to help stabilize their thinning reserves and work on a reorganization. Nevada and Louisiana had initiated such “holidays” in 1932. But the situation in Michigan, with much of its mass of defaulted loans due to the faltering car industry, was much more dire. It involved fifty-five banks, $1.5 billion, and nine hundred thousand depositors’ money. Car magnate Henry Ford was the primary depositor in the Union Guardian Trust Company, which teetered on the edge of closure. Two Hoover officials promised to provide government funds if Ford contributed $4 million to the Guardian and promised to keep his money in the bank. Ford defied them, and even threatened to pull his $25 million out of another struggling bank. As a result Michigan declared its bank holiday. Other states like Indiana, Arkansas, and Oklahoma followed. In the two and a half weeks between the beginning of Michigan’s bank holiday and President Roosevelt’s inauguration, more than thirty states would follow suit in what would be “the most exasperating two and a half weeks in financial history,” according to historian Elmus Wicker. But as Roth would come to learn too well, the bank-closure crisis did not end then.
 
 

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