The Dictator's Handbook (49 page)

22
“Pakistan Flood,”
http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-30232
.

23
Http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2010/0812/Pakistan-floods-strand-the-poor-while-rich-go-to-higher-ground
.

24
Martin Meredith,
The Fate of Africa
(New York: PublicAffairs, 2005), 102.

25
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “Intervention and Democracy,”
International Organization
60, no. 3 (July 2006): 627–649.

1
Portions of this chapter are drawn from several of our academic undertakings, including Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival
and Endogenous Institutional Change,”
Comparative Political Studies
42, no. 2 (February 2009): 167–197; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,
Principles of International Politics,
4th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).

2
Translated by Yung Wei in personal correspondence, drawn from Hong-she Zhong-gui (Red China), December 1, 1931. We are most grateful to Yung Wei for bringing this quotation to our attention.

3
Frank D. Cornfield,
The Origins and Growth of Mau Mau: An Historical Survey,
Sessional Paper number 5 of 1959/60 of Kenya LegCo (Nairobi: Government of Colony and Protectorate of Kenya, 1960), 301–308.

4
Julia Preston and Samuel Dillon,
Opening Mexico. The Making of a Democracy
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).

5
Emma Larkin,
Everything Is Broken: A Tale of Catastrophe in Burma
(New York: Penguin Press, 2010). We draw extensively on her account of Burmese politics.

6
Ibid., 78–79.

7
Eyes of the Storm: Turning Points in Burmese History
. PBS wide-angle documentary series,
WNET.org
, August 19, 2009.

8
Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith, “Surviving Disasters,” Working Paper, NYU, 2010.

9
This is true despite earthquakes being more likely to strike democracies than autocracies.

10
Economist,
July 21, 2005.

11
Julien Levesque, “Lords of Jade: Mismanagement of Myanmar's Natural Resources,”
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies,
Issue Brief No. 60 (March 2008).

12
Francis X. Clines, “Soviet Crackdown: Latvia's Leader Tries to Placate the Kremlin,”
New York Times,
January 17, 1991. Accessed at
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEED81030F934A25752C0A967958260
.

13
Andrejs Plakans,
The Latvians: A Short History
(Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1995).

14
New York Times
, December 1990, at
http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/20/world/gorbachev-urged-to-consider-crackdown-in-republics.html
.

15
Data from World Bank's World Development Indicators, per capita GDP reported in constant 2000 $US.

16
Albert Adu Boahen,
The Ghanaian Sphinx: Reflections on the Contemporary History of Ghana, 1972–1987,
The J. B. Danquah Memorial Lectures, Series 21, February 1988, (Accra, Ghana: Ghana Academy of Arts and Science, 1989), 51.

17
Naomi Chazan, “The Political Transformation of Ghana under the PNDC,” in Donald Rothchild (ed.),
The Political Economy of Ghana
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1991), 27.

18
Interview by Alastair Smith with Nat Nuno-Amarteifio, former Mayor of Accra, May 2008.

19
Nicolas Van de Walle,
African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979–1999
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 241–242.

1
Much of this section is based on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M., Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), chapter 6; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith, “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,”
World Politics
56 (April 2004): 363–388. Those interested in the logical, mathematical proofs of the claims made here should refer to these and other publications cited throughout.

2
Sun Tzu,
The Art of War,
ed. James Clavell (New York: Delacorte Press, 1983), 9–14.

3
Caspar Weinberger, “The Use of Military Power,” Remarks delivered to the National Press Club, Washington, DC, November 28, 1984. See
http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Documents/2004/January2004/0104keeperfull.pdf
.

4
See The Correlates of War Project's data on Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria for 1967, at
http://www.correlatesofwar.org/datasets.htm
.

5
Anna Getmansky, “Protecting the Protectors: A Cross-National Study of Domestic Regimes and Protection of Soldiers,” Working Paper, Department of Politics, New York University, 2008.

6
Martin Meredith,
The Soccer War
(New York: Vintage Books, 1992), 201–202.

7
In Europe in the 1980s it was a popular joke that Ronald Reagan was America's apology for being late for the first two World Wars, by being really punctual for the next.

8
Graph is generated using military expenditure from the Correlate of War Project's National Material Capabilities Data. We do not have data for Austria in 1919 as Austria-Hungary ceased to exist.

9
For a more detailed and rigorous account of how our perspective explains the incentive to create puppet regimes see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, et al.,
Logic of Political Survival
, especially chapter 9; and Carmela Lutmar, “Belligerent Occupations,” in
ISA Compendium of International Law,
Robert J. Beck and Henry F. Carey, eds. (Oxford: Blackwell, 2009).

10
See Michela Wrong,
I Didn't Do It for You: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation
(New York: HarperCollins, 2005), 328.

11
Ibid., 351–353.

12
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability,”
American Political Science Review
(December 1995); and Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph Siverson, and Gary Woller, “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Cross-National Analysis,”
American Political Science Review
(September 1992): 638–646.

13
G. M. Gilbert,
Nuremberg Diary
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Company, 1947), 278–279.

14
Quoted in David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar,
Somalia: Nation in Search of a State
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1987).

15
Wrong,
I Didn't Do It for You,
336.

16
In fact there are numerous cases of violent conflicts between pairs of democracies in the Correlates of War Project's militarized disputes data. None become wars because while one side used force, the other side backed down rather than fight back.

17
See Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam,
Democracies at War
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).

1
NFL Fan Support Ranking,
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/slideshow/13.html?page=4
; Brand Keys, Sports Loyalty Index,
http://www.brandkeys.com/awards/sports.cfm
; Sports Illustrated,
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/rick_reilly/10/09/reilly1015/index.html
;
http://www.packers.com/team/executive-committee.html
.

2
Robert Romano, “The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the Making of Quack Corporate Governance,”
Yale Law Journal
114 (May 2005): 1521–1611.

3
Jeffrey L. Jensen “Initial Institutions, Institutional Persistence, and the Promotion of Economic Development by the Original 13 States,” Working Paper, NYU Department of Politics, 2007.

4
Akhil Reed Amar,
America's Constitution: A Biography
(New York: Random House, 2006).

5
Congressional Research Service, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Amy Belasco, September 2, 2010,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf
.

6
For instance,
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/30/133305663/in-haiti-cell-phones-serve-as-debit-cards
.

Index

Abdel-Hussein, Muhyi

Abortion

Accountability.
See also
Transparency

Adamishin, Anatoly

Adams, John Quincy

Adamu, Amos

Advisers

Afabet, Battle of

Afghanistan

Africa

Horn of Africa

See also
North Africa; South Africa;
individual countries

Agramonte, Robert

Agriculture

agricultural marketing boards

See also
Farmers

Aideed, Mohamed Farrah

Airports

Albright, Madeleine

Algeria

Al-Jazeera

Allende, Salvador

Al Qaeda

Alzheimer's disease

Amin, Idi,

Amnesty

Angola

Apostles

Aquino, Benigno, Jr.

Aquino, Corazon

Arafat, Yasser

Arbenz, Jacobo

Argentina

Aristocracy

Aristotle

Artiga, Luis

Assad, Hafez al-

Assassinations.
See also
Executions

Aswan Dam

Atim, Chris

Atlanta Olympics

Atlee, Clement

Atrocities.
See also
Massacres

Augustus (emperor)

Aung San Suu Kyi

Australia

Austria

Autocrats/autocracies

autocrats' initial period in office (
see also
Leaders: new)

and borrowing

protest in autocracies

universities as autocracies

and wars(
see also
Wars)

See also
Dictatorships; Leaders; Winning coalitions: small

Aziz, Tariq

Ba'ath Party

Babies.
See also
Infant/child mortality

Bahrain

Bailouts

Balance of power

Bam, Iran

Bangladesh

Ban Ki-Moon

Bankruptcy

Banks

Barre, Siad

Bashir, Omar al-

Basil (emperor)

Bates, Robert

Batista, Fulgencio

BBC

Belarus

Belgium

Bell, California

Ben Ali, Zine el-Abidine

Ben Bella, Ahmed

Benin

Bevilaqua, John

Bhutan

Bhutto family

Bible

Bill of Rights

Bin Laden, Osama

Bishop of Rome

Black Hawk Down
(film)

Black marketeering

Blatter, Sepp

Boahen, Adu

Bolivia

Bolsheviks

Bonuses

Bonyads

Booth capture

Borrowing.
See also
Debt

Bosch, Juan

Botha, Pik

Botswana

Boumediène, Houari

BP.
See
British Petroleum

Bribery.
See also
Corruption

Britain

debt of

Olympic games in

British Petroleum (BP)

Brown, Jerry

Budgets.
See also
Government spending

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce

Building codes

Burkina Faso

Burma.
See
Myanmar

Burundi

Bush, George H. W.

Bush, George W.

Buying countries' policies

Byzantine Empire

Cabinets

California

Caliphate

Calvino, Italo

Cambodia

Cameron, David

Cameroon

Canada

Vancouver Olympic games

Cancer

CAP.
See
Common Agricultural Policy

Capital-intensive vs. labor-intensive products

Carter, Jimmy

Carter Center

Cartwheels company

Castellano, “Big” Paul

Castro, Fidel

Castro, Raul

Catherine the Great

Catholic Church

Cattle

CCM.
See
Chama Cha Mapinduzi party in Tanzania

Cedi currency

Cell phones

CEOs.
See also
Corporations

Chad

Chama Cha Mapinduzi party (CCM) in Tanzania

Change.
See also
Reforms

Charity Navigator

Chavez, Hugo

Chazan, Naomi

Checks and balances.
See also
Separation of powers

Chemical Ali

Chernositov (Russian police chief)

Chicago

Children.
See also
Infant/child mortality

Chile

Chiang Kai Shek

China

Beijing summer games

earthquakes in Qinghai and Sichuan