The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

The Age of Spiritual Machines
“ranges widely over such juicy topics as entropy, chaos, the big bang, quantum theory, DNA computers, quantum computers, Godel’s theorem, neural nets, genetic algorithms, nanoengineering, the Turing test, brain scanning, the slowness of neurons, chess playing programs, the Internet—the whole world of information technology past, present, and future. This is a book for anyone who wonders where human technology is going next.”

—
The New York Times Book Review

“A mind-expanding account of the rise of intelligent machines..... Nothing less than a blueprint for how to shove Homo sapiens off centre-stage in evolution’s endless play.... If you buy into [Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns]—and all empirical evidence currently available supports it completely—then the replacement of humans by machines as the primary intellectual force on Earth is indeed imminent.”

—John Casti,
Nature

“A welcome challenge to beliefs we hold dear ... Kurzweil paints a tantalizing—and sometimes terrifying—portrait of a world where the line between humans and machines has become thoroughly blurred.”

—Chet Raymo,
The Boston Globe

“Brilliant ... Kurzweil clearly takes his place as a leading futurist of our time. He links the relentless growth of our future technology to a universe in which Artificial Intelligence and Nanotechnology combine to bring unimaginable wealth and longevity, not merely to our descendants, but to some of those living today.”

—Marvin Minsky, Professor of Media Arts and Sciences, MIT

“The Age of Spiritual Machines
makes all other roads to the computer future look like goat paths in Patagonia.”

—George Gilder, author of
Wealth and Poverty and Life After Television

“A compelling vision of the future from one of our nation’s leading innovators. Kurzweil brings serious science and a twinkling sense of humor to the question of where we are headed ... With his pioneering inventions, and his penetrating ideas, Kurzweil convincingly takes us through what promises to be the most pivotal of centuries.”

—Mike Brown, Chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market

“An extremely provocative glimpse into what the next few decades may well hold ... Kurzweil’s broad outlook and fresh approach make his optimism hard to resist.”

—
Kirkus Reviews

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ray Kurzweil’s inventions include reading machines for the blind, music synthesizers used by Stevie Wonder and many others, and marketing leading speech-recognition technology. He is the author of
The Age of Intelligent Machines,
which won the Association of American Publishers’ Award for the Most Outstanding Computer Science Book of 1990, and
The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life.
He was awarded the Dickson Prize, Carnegie Mellon’s top science prize, in 1994. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology named him Inventor of the Year in 1988. He is also the recipient of nine honorary degrees and honors from two U.S. presidents. Kurzweil lives in a suburb of Boston.

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Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England

First published in the United States of America by Viking Penguin,
a member of Penguin Putnam Inc. 1999
Published in Penguin Books 2000

19 20

Illustrations credits
Pages 24, 26-27, 104, 156: Concept and text by Ray Kurzweil.
Illustration by Rose Russo and Robert Brun.
Page 72: © 1977 by Sidney Harris.
Pages 167-168: Paintings by Aaron, a computerized robot built and programmed by Harold Cohen.
Photographed by Becky Cohen.
Page 188: Roz Chast © 1998. From The Cartoon Bank. All rights reserved.
Page 194: Danny Shananhan © 1994. From The New Yorker Collection. All rights reserved.
Page 219: Peter Steiner © 1997. From The New Yorker Collection. All rights reserved.

eISBN : 978-1-101-07502-9

1. Artificial intelligence. 2. Computers. I. Title.
Q335.K88 1999
006.3—dc21 98-388804

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A NOTE TO THE READER

As a photon wends its way through an arrangement of glass panes and mirrors, its path remains ambiguous. It essentially takes every possible path available to it (apparently these photons have not read Robert Frost’s poem “The Road Not Taken”). This ambiguity remains until observation by a conscious observer forces the particle to decide which path it had taken. Then the uncertainty is resolved—retroactively—and it is as if the selected path had been taken all along.

Like these quantum particles, you—the reader—have choices to make in your path through this book. You can read the chapters as I intended them to be read, in sequential order. Or, after reading the Prologue, you may decide that the future can’t wait, and you wish to immediately jump to the chapters in Part III on the twenty-first century (the table of contents on the next pages offers a description of each chapter). You may then make your way back to the earlier chapters that describe the nature and origin of the trends and forces that will manifest themselves in this coming century. Or, perhaps, your course will remain ambiguous until the end. But when you come to the Epilogue, any remaining ambiguity will be resolved, and it will be as if you had always intended to read the book in the order that you selected.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to express my gratitude to the many persons who have provided inspiration, patience, ideas, criticism, insight, and all manner of assistance for this project. In particular, I would like to thank:

• My wife, Sonya, for her loving patience through the twists and turns of the creative process

• My mother for long engaging walks with me when I was a child in the woods of Queens (yes, there were forests in Queens, New York, when I was growing up) and for her enthusiastic interest in and early support for my not-always-fully-baked ideas

• My Viking editors, Barbara Grossman and Dawn Drzal, for their insightful guidance and editorial expertise and the dedicated team at Viking Penguin, including Susan Petersen, publisher; Ivan Held and Paul Slovak, marketing executives; John Jusino, copy editor; Betty Lew, designer; Jariya Wanapun, editorial assistant, and Laura Ogar, indexer

• Jerry Bauer for his patient photography

• David High for actually devising a spiritual machine for the cover

• My literary agent, Loretta Barrett, for helping to shape this project

• My wonderfully capable researchers, Wendy Dennis and Nancy Mulford, for their dedicated and resourceful efforts, and Tom Garfield for his valuable assistance

• Rose Russo and Robert Brun for turning illustration ideas into beautiful visual presentations

• Aaron Kleiner for his encouragement and support

• George Gilder for his stimulating thoughts and insights

• Harry George, Don Gonson, Larry Janowitch, Hannah Kurzweil, Rob Pressman, and Mickey Singer for engaging and helpful discussions on these topics

• My readers: Peter Arnold, Melanie Baker-Futorian, Loretta Barrett, Stephen Baum, Bryan Bergeron, Mike Brown, Cheryl Cordima, Avi Coren, Wendy Dennis, Mark Dionne, Dawn Drzal, Nicholas Fabijanic, Gil Fischman, Ozzie Frankell, Vicky Frankell, Bob Frankston, Francis Ganong, Tom Garfield, Harry George, Audra Gerhardt, George Gilder, Don Gonson, Martin Greenberger, Barbara Grossman, Larry Janowitch, Aaron Kleiner, Jerry Kleiner, Allen Kurzweil, Amy Kurzweil, Arielle Kurzweil, Edith Kurzweil, Ethan Kurzweil, Hannah Kurzweil, Lenny Kurzweil, Missy Kurzweil, Nancy Kurzweil, Peter Kurzweil, Rachel Kurzweil, Sonya Kurzweil, Jo Lernout, Jon Lieff, Elliot Lobel, Cyrus Mehta, Nancy Mulford, Nicholas Mullendore, Rob Pressman, Vlad Sejnoha, Mickey Singer, Mike Sokol, Kim Storey, and Barbara Tyrell for their compliments and criticisms (the latter being the most helpful) and many invaluable suggestions

• Finally, all the scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and artists who are busy creating the age of spiritual machines.

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