Read The Aftershock Investor: A Crash Course in Staying Afloat in a Sinking Economy Online
Authors: David Wiedemer,Robert A. Wiedemer,Cindy S. Spitzer
The Aftershock Investor: A Crash Course in Staying Afloat in a Sinking Economy
Contents
Chapter 1: Bubblequake and Aftershock—A Quick Review of How We Got Here and What’s Next
You Are Not Asleep with the Sheep
Bubblequake! First a Rising Bubble Economy, Now a Falling Bubble Economy
From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral
Why Don’t Most Conventional Investors See This Coming?
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Chapter 2: Since We Last Spoke . . .
Ignoring the Massive Money Printing (the Dollar Bubble) Is a Key Goal of the Cheerleaders
Potential Triggers That Could Accelerate a Downtrend in the U.S. Economy
A Closer Look at the Current U.S. “Recovery”
Bottom Line: “Recovery” Is Still Driven by Massive Borrowing and Massive Money Printing
The 2012 Presidential Election
Chapter 3: Conventional Wisdom Won’t Work This Time
The Key to Conventional Wisdom: The Future Will Be Just Like the Past
The Myth of a Natural Growth Rate
Real Productivity Growth Is Slowing Down, Here and Around the World
Warren Buffett: Master of Conventional Wisdom
The Key to Aftershock Wisdom Investing: The Future Is Not the Past!
How to Invest in a Falling Bubble Economy
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Chapter 4: Taking Stock of Stocks
Love Story: How Stocks Became the Heart of Most Investment Portfolios
How Are Stocks Valued? It’s All about Earnings
Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Conventional Wisdom on Bonds: The Safety of the Recent Past Means We Can Count on More Safety Ahead
Why Conventional Wisdom on Bonds Is Wrong
The Final Two Bubbles in America’s Multibubble Economy Will Pop
Bonds Will Fail in Three Stages
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Chapter 6: Getting Real about Real Estate
What Really Drives Real Estate Prices?
Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate: Continued Low Interest Rates for as Far as the Eye Can See
Why Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate Is Wrong
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Timing Your Exits Out of Real Estate
The High Cost of Doing Nothing
Chapter 7: Threats to the Safety Nets
All Insurance and Annuities Are Essentially Investments in Bonds, Stocks, Even Real Estate
Conventional Wisdom on Whole Life Insurance and Annuities: Perfectly Safe and Worth Every Penny!
Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong: Facing the Real 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold as an Investment: Warren Buffett Says Stay Away!
Why Conventional Wisdom on Gold Is Wrong
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Owning Gold as Part of a Well-Diversified Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio
Part III: Your Aftershock Game Plan
Chapter 9: Aftershock Jobs and Businesses
The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs
Conventional Wisdom about Future Jobs Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past
Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impacts on Three Broad Economic Sectors
Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets
Chapter 10: Aftershock Retirement and Estate Planning
The Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Plans
Why the Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Is Wrong
What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do?
Estate Planning: Making the Most of Your Assets for Yourself and Your Heirs
Chapter 11: Your Aftershock Investment Portfolio
Do It Yourself or Bring in Help?
Timing—Better to Move Too Early than Too Late
Appendix: Additional Background on Stocks and Bonds
Copyright © 2012 by David Wiedemer, Robert A. Wiedemer, and Cindy S. Spitzer. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.
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Important Disclaimers: This book reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the authors. Nothing in this book constitutes specific investment advice or any specific recommendation for any specific individual with respect to a particular country, sector, industry, security, or portfolio of securities. All information is impersonal and not tailored to the circumstances or investment needs of any specific person.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank John Silbersack of Trident Media Group and David Pugh, Laura Walsh, and Joan O’Neil from John Wiley & Sons for their relentless support of this book. We would also like to thank Stephen Mack and Jeff Garigliano for their help in writing this book. We thank Jim Fazone, Jay Harrison, and Nancy McSally for their work on the graphics, Michael Lebowitz for his help on the data, and Beth Gansner for her help in proofreading. We also want to acknowledge Christine Peglar’s and Jennifer Schoenefeldt’s help in keeping us organized.
I thank my co-authors, Bob and Cindy, for being indispensable in the writing of this book. Without them this book would not have been published and, even if written, would have been inaccessible for most audiences. I also thank Dr. Rod Stevenson for his long-term support of the foundational work that is the basis for this book. Dr. Jeff Williamson and Dr. Lee Hansen also provided me with important support in my academic career. And I am especially grateful to my wife, Betsy, and son, Benson, for their ongoing support in what has been an often arduous and trying process.
I, along with my brother, want to dedicate this book to our mother, who died late last year. She inspired us to think creatively and see the joy in learning and teaching. We also dedicate this to our father, the original author in the family. We also want to thank our brother, Jim, for his lifelong support of the ideas behind this book. Chris Ruddy and Aaron De Hoog have been enormous supporters of
Aftershock
. It’s been great to have such support. I also want to thank early supporters Stan Goldstein, Tim Selby, Sam Stovall, and Phil Gross. I also want to thank Dan Cohen and Michael Calkin for their support of this book. I am most grateful to Weldon Rackley, who helped my father to become an author and who did the same for me. A very heartfelt thanks goes to John R. Douglas for his very special role in making our books a reality.