More Guns Less Crime (54 page)

80t, 81, 82t, 280-81nl6 concealed-handgun permits celebrities with, 15 and crime rates, 75-81, 103-9, 104t,

105t, 108t economic benefits, 109—10, 115 granted by three states, 75t in populous counties, 63—65, 227—30 predicting permit rates, 174—76 revocations of, 14, 219—22, 231 concealed handguns

and accidental deaths, 54 benefits for women v. men, 20 and blacks, 68-70 and deterrence, 5—7 and law-abiding citizens, 275n22 spillover effect, 5, 91-94 and training, 175-76, 231-232 Cook, Philip, 11, 267nn43, 46-47, 291n41 Cosby, Bill, 15 Cramer, Clayton, 133, 225 crime

cycles, 73, 75, 130-31, 207-9 geographic variation in prevalence,

27t trends, and concealed-handgun laws,

70, 73-75, 74t, 76t, 209-10 crime rate

and additional police officers, 291n3 and arrest rate, 103-6, 115—16 and conviction rate, 106, 115—16 defined, 250 effect of concealed-handgun laws v.

arrest rate, 118-19 effect of demographic characteristics

on, 56-57, 259t-62t, 277nl8 impact of handgun laws and arrest

rate, aggregate data, 59t, 611 increases in, 40, 43 and nonhandgun variables, 56—57 and prison population, 273nn9—10 and sentence length, 107—9

variation across states and counties

compared, 30t See also concealed-handgun laws, and

specific types of crime criminals

characteristics of, 8—9, 266nn33—34 motivation of, 4-5, 15-16, 19 criticisms of and responses to original

study adoption dates, 132-33 arrest rate, 146, 154—55 causality, 153—54 coefficients of demographic variables,

143-44 crime cycles, 130-31, 207-9 crime rates, 135—38 cross-state comparisons, 151—52 deterrent effect, 156 discretionary v. nondiscretionary,

144-45 inclusion of Florida, 138—41 inclusion of Maine, 142 linkage of ownership and crime, 152-53 misleading graphs, 146—47 murders of youths and adults, 147-48 public places, 150-51 putative assumptions, 131-32 robberies, 133-34, 215-17 scale of changes, 129—30 substitution of property crimes for

rape, 134 variation of laws across states, 142—43 victim characteristics, 148—50

Daly, Martin, 265n28

data

basic, 43-49

city-level, 190-94

county v. state-level, 28—33

demographics in U.S. counties, 257t

demographic variables, 143—44

determining gun ownership, 275n2

difficulties in interpreting, 26—29,

283-84nl effect of demographic characteristics

on crime, 259t-62t national sample means and standard

deviations, 256t—57t sources of, 19, 43, 252-55

defensive gun use. See gun use, defensive

Department of Commerce, Regional Economic Information System, 48

Department of Health and Human Services, Mortality Detail Records, 97, 111

Department of Justice, 164

Expenditure and Employment Data,

118,253 National Crime Victimization Survey,

4, 11 National Institute of Justice, 266-67n43

deterrence, 5, 16-18, 267n47

of arrests across counties, 60, 611

and case for concealed handguns, 5—7,

26 of concealed handguns, 156

Dezbakhsh, Hashem, 302n83, 304nl06

Dilulio, John J., 266n36, 282n32

discretionary concealed-handgun laws. See concealed-handgun laws

Donohue, John, 213-15, 217-18, 224-30, 303nn87-89

Dunn, John, 14

economic costs of crime, 54—56 Edinboro, Pennsylvania, 194-95, 236—37 Ehrlich, Isaac, 117, 118, 275n26, 295n24 empirical evidence basic data, 43—49

concealed-handgun laws as explanatory variable, 117—20 controlling for other gun laws, 84t—

85t, 197-202 controlling for robbery and burglary

rates, 71t-72t factoring in cocaine prices, 279-80n8 general issues, 25, 26, 33—35, 50—51,

94-96 putative assumptions, 131—32 results reexamined with additional

data, 86, 90t, 90-91 sensitivity of results, 57, 184-90 using crime rates to explain other

crime rates, 70, 71t-72t variation of time trends over states,

57-58 See also concealed-handgun laws; data; methodology endogeneity problem, 22, 24—25, 146 England, 241

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Uniform Crime Reports, 7, 26—28, 33, 44t-45t, 47, 86, 163, 252-53

Supplementary Homicide Reports, 97, 252

Finke, Doug, 148

Florida

change in murder rate, 108t, 139t as special case, 138-41, 227, 290n27

General Accounting Office, 199 General Social Survey, 37—40 Gerchick, Cari, 254 Giuliani, Rudolph W., 6 Glaeser, Edward, 48, 277nl9 Glick, Susan, 122-23, 287n3 Grabowski, Steve, 86 graphs, misleading, 146—47 gun ban, complete, 164—65 gun control

arguments for, 9—10, 267nn43—47

aversion to open debate of, 126—28

and blacks, 68-70, 282nn26-28

studies of, 21—25

supporters of, 14 gun culture, America as, 1 "gun-free" zones or "safe-zones," 167,

240 gun locks, 9-10, 266-67nn40-41, 43,

282n29 gun ownership

benefits for women and blacks, 62, 161, 281n23

and crime rates, 113—14, 114t

difficulty of international comparisons, 113

demographics of, 37t, 37-40, 38t, 39t, 40t, 41t-42t, 267-68n48, 276n7

determining, 275n2

increase in, 36—37, 263nl, 270—71n77

police views on, 13—14, 269—70nn66— 69, 271n79

rules making more difficult, 163—64, 270n73, 292nn7, 9, 11, 13, 15 gun use, defensive, 2-5, 11—13, 263—

64nn7-15, 17, 268nn48-50, 269nn63-

64, 66, 281n24

illustrations of, 1-6, 12-13, 15, 149, 159-60, 263nn4, 7-9, 264nn8-13, 269nn63, 64, 68, 270nn69, 77, 283n42

Handgun Control, Inc., 123, 124, 139, 157-58, 202, 205-7, 216, 219, 231, 233, 298n56, 302n81

handguns. See concealed-handgun laws; concealed-handgun permits; concealed handguns

Hawkins, Gordon, 129, 150, 151, 152, 156, 217

Haxby, John, 2

Heckman, James J., 211

Hemenway, David, 207—8

Herman, Alexis, 68

Holmes, John, 14

Hotz, Joseph, 211

illegal drug use, 213—15 Illinois Council Against Handgun Violence, 124 Ivins, Molly, 206-7, 301n76

Johnson, Fay, 149

Kellerman, Arthur, 23-24, 157

Kelling, George, 26

Kleck, Gary, 4, 68, 218-19, 263n5, 267n47,

268nn49-50, 273n4, 274n20 Kopel, David, 133, 225 Kotowski, Dan, 124, 288n8 Krug, Alan, 254

Landes, William, 195, 273nl0 Lawrence Research group, 14 Learner, Edward E., 295n22 Levitt, Steven, 146, 285n21, 290n31 Lewis, Dawn, 263n3

Ludwig, Jens, 122, 133, 134, 144, 145, 147-48, 157, 267n43

Maine, as special case, 142, 227

Mariel boat lift, 107, 139

Marvell, Thomas, 49

mass public shootings, 100-103, lOlt, 102t, 284nn4-6

McManus, Walter S., 295n22

methodology

aggregate variables, 60, 278—79n3,

281n20 case study method, 24—25 causality, 153—54 classification of states, 279n5 and crime rates with other variables

uncontrolled, 280-81nl6 cross-sectional studies, 22—24, 273n3 cross-state comparisons, 151—52 determining gun ownership, 275n2

endogeneity problem, 22, 24—25, 146

endogenous and exogenous, 272—73n2

polls, 276nn5, 7-8

regression analysis, 245—48

statistical significance, 248—49

surveys, 21

time-series studies, 22—24, 273n3

relation of crime and arrest rate, 275n26 Moody, Carlisle, 49, 254 Morin, Richard, 139, 142 murders

acquaintance, 7t, 7-8, 148-50, 265n28

after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 77t, 108t, 136t, 139t

differential effects on youths and adults, 147-48

effect of concealed-handgun laws on murderers' behavior, 97-98, 98t, 99t, 100

over time, 276—77n9

per 100,000 people, 44t

variation across states and counties, 31t, 282n25 Mustard, David, 147, 148, 154, 156, 286n2 Myrick, Joel, 194-95, 236-37

Nagin, Daniel, 128-29, 131, 135-41, 142-

43, 146, 155, 156, 290nn28-29 National Crime Victimization Survey, 62,

264-65nl4, 268n49 National Institute of Justice, 54—56, 114 National Opinion Research Center, 14 National Research Council, National

Academy of Sciences, 18 National Rifle Association, 254 news media, and guns, 1—2, 9, 266n37,

288n5 nondiscretionary concealed-handgun law.

See concealed-handgun laws

Olin Foundation, 123-26, 202-3, 289 one-gun-a-month law, 198-201 original study

aversion to open debate, 126—28,

286-9n2 defense of, 124-26, 156-57, 287n3,

289nl2 general attacks on, 122-24, 128-29,

156-57, 286n2, 288n6, 289nl3 specific criticisms and responses. See criticisms of and responses to original study

Pearl, Mississippi, 194-95, 236

Peltzman, Sam, 33

Plassman, Florenz, 232

police officers, and crime rate, 291n3

police policies

broken-windows strategy, 190, 194

community-oriented policing, 190, 194

consent decrees, affirmative action, 190, 191, 203

problem-oriented policing, 190, 194 poll data, 36-42, 222-23, 230-31 Polsby, Daniel, 266n30, 272nl press bias, 236—38 property crimes

after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 54, 78t, 81, 279n4

and demographic factors, 56—57

per 100,000 people, 45t

substitution for rape, 134

Rand, M. Kristen, 123-24, 126, 288n7 rapes

after adoption of concealed-handgun

law, 137t per 100,000 people, 44t substitution of property crimes for,

134 variation across states and counties, 32t Regional Economic Information System,

254 regression analysis, explanation of, 245—

48,251 Reno, Janet, 267n43 resistance to criminals, advisability of,

3-4, 264-65nnl3-14 robberies

effect of concealed-handgun laws on, 78t, 133-34,137t,142t, 215-17, 274nl6,279n4 per 100,000 people, 45t Roth, Randy, 126-28 Rubin, Paul H., 302n83, 304nl06 Russia, 241

Sacerdote, Bruce, 48

safe-storage laws, 198—201

scale, questions about, 129—30

Schalch, Kathleen, 147

Schumer, Charles, 123, 124, 125, 126, 288n6

Second Amendment, 21,165,272nl, 293nl8 self-protection. See gun use, defensive Selleck, Tom, 15 Sentencing Commission, 128 sentencing penalties, increasing for crimes

involving a gun, 81, 83, 84t-85t Serafin, Barry, 123 Simon, William, letter by, 124-26 Smith, Tom, 37 Southwick, Lawrence, 4 spillover effect, 5, 91-93, 93t, 94t, 161 statistical significance, explanation of,

248-49, 250-51 Stone, Brandon, 127—28 Strand, James, 236—37 substitution effect, 5, 6—7, 265n22 Sugarmann, Josh, 148-50, 287n3,

288nn7-8 suicide, 10, 112, 114, 115,267n

Teepen, Tom, 207, 301n75 Tennenbaum, Abraham, 6 Texans Against Gun Violence, 263n3 Tideman, Nicolaus, 232

University of Chicago Press, 302n78 Uviller, H. Richard, 267n47

victims, characteristics of, 99t, 148-50 Violence Policy Center, 122, 123 violent crime

after adoption of concealed-handgun law, 77t, 136t, 140t

per 100,000 people, 44t

waiting period, 49, 81, 106-7, 140, 162, 163,

278n24, 283n42, 292n7 Webster, Daniel, 128, 130, 131-32, 134, 141,

142, 146-47 Weil, Doug, 267n5, 286-87n2, 288n4,

300n70 Whitely, John, 201 Wilson, James Q., 26, 266n34, 274nl4, 292-

93nl6 Wilson, Margo, 265n28 Woodward, Mike, 254

Yassky, David, 202

Zimring, Franklin, 129, 150, 151, 152, 156

Does owning or carrying guns deter violent crime? Or does it simply allow more other? Legal scholar John Lott directly challenges our common perceptions about gun control and presents the most rigorous and comprehensive analysis ever done on crime statistics and right-to-carry laws. This timely, provocative work reaches a startling conclusion: more guns mean less crime. In this new paperback edition, Lott has expanded the research to include the most up-to-date data now available from states that passed right-to-carry and other gun laws since the book's publication as well as new city-level statistics.

ight-tc Ltistics

evid

ard evidence that even politicians may have to stop and pay attention. More Guns, Less Crime is an exhaustive analysis of the effect of gun possession on crime rates."

—James Bovard, Wall Street Journal

itically correct' vested interests are willing to go to t with them. Lott has done us all a service by his Ltful, scholarly approach to a highly controversial issue." —Milton Friedman

e tha

mce that yet another liberal policy is a cause of the Bntly changed the terms of debate on gun con-■mely. ... A model of the meticulous application of economics and statistics to law and policy."

O. McGinnis. National Review

"More Guns, Less Crime is one of the most important books of our time. It provides thoroughly researched facts on a life-and-death subject that is too often discussed on the basis of unsubstantiated beliefs and hysterical emotions."

—Thomas Sowell

"His empirical analysis sets a standard that will be difficult to match. . . . This has got to be the most extensive empirical study of crime deterrence that has been done to date."

— Public Choice

"For anyone with an open mind on either side of this subject this book will provide a thorough grounding. It is also likely to be the standard reference on the subject for years to come."

—Stan Liebowitz, Dallas Morning News

John R. Lott, Jr., is senior research scholar in the School of Law at Yale University. He was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission during 1988 and 1989, and has published over eighty articles in academic journals. He is the author of Are Predatory Commitments Credible? Who Should the Courts Believe? published by the University of Chicago Press.

The University of Chicago Press

ISBN

www.press.uchicago.edu