Esther's Sling (9 page)

Prime Minister Cohen checked his watch. He was impatient by nature. “What is the next item on your list?”

Aitan was used to this. The only men in the room who could push back when the prime minister was ready to move on were Raibani and Defense Minister Avner. “The Iranians are continuing their initiator research inside Parchin
,” he explained. The Parchin military base, just outside of Tehran, was the center of Iran’s effort to develop a functioning mechanism to create a reliable nuclear implosion. “This is not news, but what is interesting is that we have information that they have started working on an initiator design theory that originated in China.”

Danny Stein had been listening intently to Aitan. He was an amateur physicist and understood nuclear weapon design better than any member of the Kitchen Cabinet with the exception of Yavi Aitan. He knew that a nuclear weapon, designed to be imploded into a critical mass, needed an initiator in the middle of that mass. The initiator starts the nuclear chain reaction by bombarding U-235 atoms with neutrons. The absorption of a neutron by
a U-235 atom causes that atom to split, releasing energy in the form of heat, gamma radiation and an additional two or three of its neutrons, which in turn cause, on average, two other nearby U-235 atoms to split.

“What are you saying?” asked Stein. “The Chinese are running their program?”

“No, but they are playing an influential role as they did with the Pakistanis in the nineties.”

“Wait. Are you telling us that the Chinese are helping the Iranians build a bomb?” The question came from Ben Raibani.

“Not directly, no. But Chinese physicists have been making trips to Tehran. They are lecturing at Tehran University and bringing weapons-related research that is still classified in the West.”

Now the prime minister was compelled to grill his minister of intelligence and atomic affairs. “Yavi, neither you nor Levy have mentioned this to me.” Cohen was agitated.

“I’m sorry, sir. This has only come to light in recent weeks. Two Chinese physicists have been lecturing in Tehran this winter. We only learned about these lectures recently. Mossad was able to record a lecture that was given to an invited group of graduate students, professors and scientists about two weeks ago. We also obtained a copy of the handouts. The lecture was on initiator designs and implosion lenses. We didn’t get the handout materials out of Iran until this past weekend. Mossad has now dedicated resources to learn as much as possible about these continuing lectures.”

Cohen leaned over to Raibani. “Remind me to yell at Ami.” It was loud enough for everyone to hear. He was not happy with Amichai Levy, the Director of Mossad. He turned his attention back to Yavi Aitan. “You guys have to keep me better informed. The Americans have to come down on the Chinese for this. If they don’t, we should leak this to the press.” Cohen took a drink from his most recent water bottle. “Well, what is your assessment of all this?”

“In terms of?” asked Aitan.

“In terms of impact on their program. Is this useful information or are the Chinese giving them bullshit?”

“In my opinion, sir, this is a mixture. Some of this, like the Iranians pursuing uranium deuteride research, is probably a waste of their time and resources. But some of the information is useful, especially regarding warhead miniaturization. I think the Chinese are playing both sides here.”

“What else is new? They must have invented the two-step.” The prime minister was angry now.

“Yes,” Aitan continued. “If confronted, they can tell the Americans that they are sending the Iranians down a blind alley. But the Iranians have plenty of physicists who are smart enough to assess the value of what is being discussed. And some of this research is highly valuable for Iran. If we give the Americans the evidence, they can call China out on this issue.”

“I want a full report on this later tod
ay from either you or Ami Levy.”

Zvi Avner jumped into the discussion for the first time. “Can we add these two guys to Dead Lead?” The question was to the prime minister. Operation Dead Lead was the internal code name for the targeted assassinations of Iranian physicists and scientists deemed critical to their nuclear program.

“You mean the Chinese physicists?” Avner nodded once. Cohen started to shake his head. A smile formed. “Sometimes, Zvi, you make me feel like I’m a peace activist.” The men in the room laughed and even the defense minister himself could not suppress a smile. “I don’t think now is the time to pick a fight with China.” The prime minister was going to stop his response there, but added a qualification. “If these two Chinese physicists were operating on a rogue basis, let’s say they were now employed by Iran and living in Tehran full time, then I would absolutely consider it. That would put them in the same category as the supergun guy. Ah, what’s his name?”

“Gerald Bull,” responded Yavi Aitan. Bull, an engineer who was an expert at designing and building very long range artillery, had sold his services to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. His work made him an enemy of the State of Israel. He was assassinated in Belgium by Mossad agents in 1990 with the consent of
then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir.

“That’s the guy. He went rogue. He certainly was not being sanctioned by the Canadians. He even had to live in Belgium when he wasn’t in Baghdad. But I don’t think these Chinese guys fall into that category.” Cohen looked at Aitan. “Do they?”

“No, sir. That is part of my concern. They are in Tehran lecturing with the full knowledge and approval of Beijing. I would go so far as to say they are on official Chinese business.”

Aitan continued. “We are also picking up early signs that Iran and China are discussing a closer relationship in the cyber technology side. Nothing concrete has happened yet that we know of, but discussions are underway. Some of this information we have gotten from the Americans.”

“Stay on top of that, Yavi,” replied Cohen. “What else?”

“That is the key point on China. The next issue on my list is …”

“I’m sorry,” interrupted Avi Gresch. “Before we leave the subject of scientists and Operation Dead Lead, was the killing of Masoud Ali Mohammadi part of Dead Lead?” Dr. Mohammadi was a physicist at Tehran University who was killed on January 11, 2010, as he walked past a parked motorcycle laden with explosives.

Aitan started to respond, but the prime minister beat him to it. “No,” said Cohen in an emphatic tone. “Unless Yavi is about to admit to something very serious, I never heard of this man until his name came up in the news.”

“Nothing to admit to on this one,” Aitan added. “The Iranians killed him. He was a vocal supporter of Mousavi who committed the crime of trying to organize other professors in Tehran to go on strike over the election results.” The irony of Aitan’s comment was lost on the prime minister. To Cohen the equation was simple. Israel was killing physicists out of legitimate self defense. That Iran jailed and sometimes killed its dissidents were acts of an illegitimate regime.

Mir-
Hossein Mousavi had been the reform candidate running against President Ahmadinejad during nationwide elections in Iran that previous summer. Independent observers – and Israeli intelligence – were convinced that Mousavi had actually won the election, but the official results declared that Ahmadinejad had won a decisive reelection. The meeting of the Kitchen Cabinet the prior August had largely focused on the election and its aftermath, when the people of Iran came as close to overthrowing their government as they had since the fall of the Shah in 1979. The consensus reached during that meeting was very strong and had not waivered since. The Israeli government could do very little to help the reform movement. Any action they took that was subsequently revealed to the people of Iran would only harm the movement. Despite the potential to dramatically affect Israel, Cohen and his administration were reduced to spectators.

But the analysis that
led to the consensus opinion was the belief, held by every man in the room, that regardless of the nature of the regime that ruled Iran, the nuclear program had become a source of national pride and therefore would not be halted. Even if the mullahs were kicked out of power, as far as Cohen and Avner were concerned, Iran’s nuclear program had only one point: the development of nuclear weapons. And that outcome was an existential threat to Israel even if Iran was a free democracy. There was no question that a free and secular Iran was less of a threat, but a nuclear armed Iran was a gun at Israel’s head just waiting for the wrong leader to come along and pull the trigger. So the consensus had been established: better to let other countries do what they could to help Iran become more free. Israel had an existential threat to worry about.

“You had another issue?” The prime minister was ready to move along.

“Yes, sir,” Aitan continued. “I want everyone to be aware of the latest with Hezbollah. The Syrians continue to deliver M-600 missiles to their control. The pattern of delivery is the same. The Syrian Shu'bat al-Mukhabarat takes control of the missiles and delivers them to one of two storage locations off of highway one near the Lebanese border.” Aitan was referring to Syria’s military intelligence agency, which works closely with Iran to maintain ties with Hezbollah. “Both locations are in Syria and are run jointly with Hezbollah. Handover occurs at these two spots. From there, once Hezbollah has found a location to base each missile, they move the missiles over highway one into the Bekaa Valley and on to each missile’s new home.

“All of the M-
600s are housed north of the Litani River using Hezbollah’s pattern of placing their highest value assets in homes or other places that are going to cause us problems if we hit them. For instance, the town of Nabatieh has a very good hospital that is six stories tall. It was built with an underground garage in the basement. Hezbollah built new parking across the street and now stores six M-600 missiles and their launchers under the hospital.

“
For my job, these missiles are very big and impossible for them to hide when they move them into and around Lebanon. We have been able to account for every missile inside Lebanon. Aman has done an incredible job with their Lebanon group.”

“Yavi, this is interesting, but it is not new,” Prime Minister Cohen
said. “I assume you have a number to update us with?”

“The latest transfers put the number of M-600 missiles under Hezbollah control at two hundred thirty-four. That number is up by forty-eight since our last meeting. But that is not the part that concerns me. The last forty-eight missiles all have GPS guidance supplemented with an
inertial navigation system. We expect them to be targeting military command and control and airbases.”

Zvi
Avner broke in to add key information. “They are looking to retrofit all of their M-600 missiles with GPS. We need to have a process in place with the Pentagon to scramble the GPS coding over the Middle East.”

“Can they do that?” asked Avi Gresch.

Avner gave him a look that was not meant as a complement. “Really, Avi?”

“Is that a stupid question? Honestly, I don’t know.”

“Yes,” Avner responded. Gresch was not sure if Avner was responding to his first question or his second. “GPS was created by the U.S. military for its own use. The Pentagon has control over the system. They can alter the signal globally or regionally on command. They will change it regionally for us.”

“What about our units?” asked Gresch.

Avner glared at Gresch in disgust. As far as the defense minister was concerned, only military veterans should be in this room deciding matters of life and death for the nation of Israel. Avner worked hard to calm himself; he would have exploded years ago when he was in command of the IDF.

Prime Minister Cohen watched his old friend struggle with his emotions. He found the situation amusing. But he also knew that it was critical to maintain a working cohesion within this small group. He decided to salvage the situation before his defense minister lost his composure. “Avi, the signals from the satellites get scrambled. The Americans can do everything from making the signal unintelligible, to degrading the accuracy, to actually altering the reported position of any GPS receiver by a fixed amount if they want. But whatever they do, they will provide their own military and hopefully the IDF with the codes necessary to reverse the effect and have accurate coordinates. Make sense?”

Avi Gresch nodded his head. “Thank you, Mister Prime Minister. I apologize for my ignorance on this subject.”

Yavi Aitan had been listening to this exchange, wondering to himself how far to let it go before jumping in. He thought through the situation and decided that it was too important to let misperceptions linger. “Actually, if you will excuse me, Mister Prime Minister, I think that Minister Gresch has in fact raised some important issues. There are some meaningful technical
issues we have to deal with. First, it is important to understand how GPS works. The system broadcasts a civilian signal known as C/A, or the course acquisition signal. This is unencrypted and generally accurate to ten meters or so. They also broadcast a more accurate military signal that is encrypted. Of course, we have the codes for that signal.

“The signal that we are concerned with is the open civilian signal. The Americans have adopted an approach towards GPS over the last decade known a
s ‘regional denial.’ They can distort the accuracy of the civilian GPS signal on a regional basis that is remarkably precise. For instance, they reduce the accuracy of GPS broadcasts over Afghanistan. But keep in mind that what they have done to date – and this is the only thing they have ever shown a willingness to do – is reduce the accuracy. Technically speaking, they increase the circular error of probability. While theoretically they could alter the signals to literally read false positions, they have never done this in the past. But that is the just part of the issue.” Aitan looked at his prime minister for approval to continue.