Cascadia's Fault (49 page)

As for the tragic death toll in Japan, recall that even though twenty thousand people died in a region with a population of millions, the vast
majority
of folks living there
did survive
the worst disaster in a thousand years. They're already well on their way toward cleaning up the debris and restarting their lives. Their experience has taught the whole world important new things about earthquake and tsunami science. The question now is, will we in North America listen and learn?

In the course of filming a CBC documentary about Hungarians who fled to Canada after the 1956 uprising, I met Anna Porter, who escaped her Budapest home as a teenager and passed through New Zealand and the UK en route to becoming a successful author and publisher in Toronto. The room was lit and we were ready to shoot an introductory sequence of her working on final revisions to the manuscript of
Kastner's Train.
But when Anna searched her handbag, she discovered the manuscript had been left at home. In a pinch I found an acceptable substitute, a prop. I reached into my backpack and handed Anna the first draft of a film proposal about earthquakes and tsunamis along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, the documentary Bette and I hoped to produce the following summer.

Anna obligingly paged through the synopsis, marking it up with her red pen while the camera crew captured a serious book editor at work. Much to my good fortune, she wasn't just faking it. Anna was reading and paying attention. Finally she mumbled under her breath, “You realize there's a book in this, don't you?” And so here we are. Thanks ever so much to Anna Porter, not only for planting the seed
but also for personally talking about it to her friends and colleagues in the publishing industry. I'm convinced she helped get this book over the transom and near the top of the slush pile in record time.

More than two years later, when I had written a draft of most of the chapters, I returned to the source, to the quake hunters, oceanographers, and other seismic sleuths who did the muddy detective work that unraveled the mysteries of Cascadia's fault. A dozen of them found time in their hectic schedules to read and comment on parts of the manuscript. I want to acknowledge and sincerely thank John Adams, Brian Atwater, Eddie Bernard, Gary Carver, Lori Dengler, Chris Goldfinger, George Plafker, Garry Rogers, Mike Schmidt, Vasily Titov, Kelin Wang, and Bob Yeats for their insights, clarifications, and valuable suggestions. In the final draft, of course, all errors of fact or interpretation are my responsibility.

I'd also like to express my deep thanks and appreciation to Harper-Collins and editor Jim Gifford for making this journey and the learning curve such a pleasant and rewarding experience. Jim brought fresh eyes and an organized mind to a dense thicket of complex material. The book is all the better for his efforts.

And finally, I thank Bette, my partner in life and everything else. Without her encouragement and support, without her voluminous research—she can find anything!—and razor sharp attention to detail, this book would never have been completed. She carried the heaviest burden of several other projects we were committed to (not the least of which was organizing and running our lives) so that I could indulge in the luxury of chasing a story down convoluted alleys to its logical end. BT, I'm eternally happy to be on your team.

A chronology of scientific articles, proceedings, working papers, and books that trace the evolution and mystery of Cascadia's fault from early continental drift to plate tectonics and to the current reality.

 

1924

Wegener, Alfred.
The Origin of Continents and Oceans.
New York: E. P. Dutton, 1924.

 

1949

Benioff, Hugo. “Seismic Evidence for the Fault Origin of Oceanic Deeps.”
Bulletin of the Geological Society of America
60 (December 1949): 1837–66.

 

1962

Hess, H. H. “History of Ocean Basins.” In
Petrologic Studies: A Volume to Honor A. F. Bud-dington
, edited by A. E. J. Engel, Harold L. James, and B. F. Leonard, 599–620. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1962.

 

1963

Vine, F. J., and D. H. Matthews. “Magnetic Anomalies over Ocean Ridges.”
Nature
199, no. 4897 (September 1963): 947–49.

Wilson, J. Tuzo. “Are the Continents Drifting? A New Look at a Controversial Question.”
The UNESCO Courier
no. 10 (October 1963): 3–11.

———. “Hypothesis of Earth's Behaviour.”
Nature
198, no. 4884 (June 1963): 925–29.

 

1964

Benioff, Hugo. “Earthquake Source Mechanisms: Although Progress Has Been Made in the Understanding of Earthquakes, Many Problems Remain.”
Science
143, no. 3613 (March 1964): 1399–1406.

 

1965

Plafker, George. “Tectonic Deformation Associated with the 1964 Alaska Earthquake.”
Science
148, no. 3678 (June 1965): 1675–87.

Press, Frank, and David Jackson. “Alaskan Earthquake, 27 March 1964: Vertical Extent of Faulting and Elastic Strain Energy Release.”
Science
n.s. 147, no. 3660 (February 1965): 867–68.

Wilson, J. Tuzo. “A New Class of Faults and Their Bearing on Continental Drift.”
Nature
207, no. 4995 (July 1965): 343–47.

———. “Transform Faults, Oceanic Ridges and Magnetic Anomalies Southwest of Vancouver Island.”
Science
150, no. 3695 (October 1965): 482–85.

 

1968

Isacks, Bryan, and Jack Oliver. “Seismology and the New Global Tectonics.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
73, no. 18 (September 1968): 5855–99.

 

1970

Griggs, G. B., and L. D. Kulm. “Sedimentation in Cascadia Deep-Sea Channel.”
Geological Society of America Bulletin
81 (May 1970): 1361–84.

Plafker, George, and J. C. Savage. “Mechanism of the Chilean Earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960.”
Geological Society of America Bulletin
81 (April 1970): 1001–30.

 

1972

Committee on the Alaska Earthquake.
The Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964: Seismology and Geodesy.
Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1972.

 

1976

Riddihough, R. P., and R. D. Hyndman. “Canada's Active Western Margin: The Case for Subduction.”
Geoscience Canada
3, no. 4 (1976): 269–78.

 

1979

Ando, Masataka, and Emery I. Balazs. “Geodetic Evidence for Aseismic Subduction of the Juan de Fuca Plate.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
84, no. B6 (June 1979): 3023–27.

 

1981

Savage, J. C., M. Lisowski, and W. H. Prescott. “Geodetic Strain Measurements in Washington.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
86, no. B6 (June 1981): 4929–40.

 

1982

Reilinger, Robert, and John Adams. “Geodetic Evidence for Active Landward Tilting on the Oregon and Washington Coastal Ranges.”
Geophysical Research Letters
9, no. 4 (April 1982): 401–3.

 

1984

Adams, John. “Active Deformation of the Pacific Northwest Continental Margin.”
Tectonics
3, no. 4 (August 1984): 449–72.

Heaton, Thomas H., and Hiroo Kanamori. “Seismic Potential Associated with Subduction in the Northwestern United States.”
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
74, no. 3 (June 1984): 933–41.

 

1985

Bakun, W. H., and A. G. Lindh. “The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment.”
Science
229, no. 4714 (August 1985): 619–24.

Heaton, Thomas H., and Parke D. Snavely Jr. “Possible Tsunami along the Northwestern Coast of the United States Inferred from Indian Traditions.”
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
75, no. 5 (October 1985): 1455–60.

 

1986

Heaton, Thomas H., and Stephen H. Hartzell. “Source Characteristics of Hypothetical Subduction Earthquakes in the Northwestern United States.”
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
76, no. 3 (June 1986): 675–708.

Mitchell, Denis, John Adams, Ronald H. DeVall, Robert C. Lo, and Dieter Weichert.
“Lessons from the 1985 Mexican Earthquake.”
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
13 (1986): 535–57.

 

1987

Atwater, Brian F. “Evidence for Great Holocene Earthquakes along the Outer Coast of Washington State.”
Science
236, no. 4804 (May 1987): 942–44.

Carver, G. A., and R. M. Burke. “Late Pleistocene and Holocene Paleoseismicity of Little Salmon and Mad River Thrust Systems, NW California: Implications to the Seismic Potential of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.”
Geological Society of America Bulletin, Abstracts with Programs
, no. 125029 (1987).

Heaton, Thomas H., and Stephen H. Hartzell. “Earthquake Hazards on the Cascadia Subduction Zone.”
Science
236, no. 4798 (April 1987): 162–68.

Yeats, Robert S. “Summary of Symposium on Oregon's Earthquake Potential Held February 28, 1987, at Western Oregon State College in Monmouth.”
Oregon Geology
49, no. 8 (August 1987): 97–98.

 

1988

Dragert, H., and G. C. Rogers. “Could a Megathrust Earthquake Strike Southwestern British Columbia?”
Geos
3 (1988): 5–8.

Nance, John J.
On Shaky Ground: An Invitation to Disaster.
New York: William Morrow, 1988.

Rogers, Garry C. “An Assessment of the Megathrust Earthquake Potential of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.”
Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences
25 (1988): 844–52.

 

1990

Adams, John. “Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Evidence from Turbidites off the Oregon–Washington Margin.”
Tectonics
9, no. 4 (August 1990): 569–83.

Darienzo, Mark E., and Curt D. Peterson. “Episodic Tectonic Subsidence of Late Holocene Salt Marshes, Northern Oregon Central Cascadia Margin.”
Tectonics
9, no. 1 (1990): 1–22.

Dragert, H., and M. Lisowski. “Crustal Deformation Measurements on Vancouver Island, British Columbia: 1976 to 1988.” In
Proceedings of a Symposium Held within the General Meeting of the International Association of Geodesy in Edinburgh, Scotland, August 3–5, 1989,
edited by Ivan I. Mueller, 241–50. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1990.

 

1991

Atwater, Brian F., and David K. Yamaguchi. “Sudden, Probably Coseismic Submergence of Holocene Trees and Grass in Coastal Washington State.”
Geology
19 (July 1991): 706–9.

 

1992

Goldfinger, C., L. D. Kulm, R. S. Yeats, B. Applegate, M. MacKay, and G. F. Moore. “Transverse Structural Trends along the Oregon Convergent Margin: Implications for Cascadia Earthquake Potential.”
Geology
20 (February 1992): 141–44.

 

1993

Hyndman, R. D., and K. Wang. “Thermal Constraints on the Zone of Major Thrust Earthquake Failure: The Cascadia Subduction Zone.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
98, no. B2 (1993): 2039–60.

Oppenheimer, D., G. Beroza, G. Carver, L. Dengler, J. Eaton, L. Gee, F. Gonzalez et al. “The Cape Mendocino, California, Earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the Triple Junction.”
Science
261, no. 5120 (July 1993): 433–38.

 

1994

Clague, John J., and Peter T. Bobrowsky. “Evidence for a Large Earthquake and Tsunami 100–400 Years ago on Western Vancouver Island, British Columbia.”
Quaternary Research
41 (1994): 176–84.

Darienzo, M. E., C. D. Peterson, and C. Clough. “Stratigraphic Evidence for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes at Four Estuaries in Northern Oregon, U.S.A.”
Journal of Coastal Research
10, no. 4 (1994): 850–76.

Dragert, H., R. D. Hyndman, G. C. Rogers, and K. Wang. “Current Deformation and the Width of the Seismogenic Zone of the Northern Cascadia Subduction Thrust.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
99 (1994): 653–658.

 

1995

Hyndman, R. D., and K. Wang. “The Rupture Zone of Cascadia Great Earthquakes from Current Deformation and the Thermal Regime.”
Journal of Geophysical Research
100, no. B11 (November 1995): 22133–54.

McCaffrey, Robert, and Chris Goldfinger. “Forearc Deformation and Great Subduction Earthquakes: Implications for Cascadia Offshore Earthquake Potential.”
Science
267, no. 5199 (February 1995): 856–59.

Nelson, Alan R., Brian F. Atwater, Peter T. Bobrowsky, Lee-Ann Bradley, John J. Clague, Mark E. Darienzo, Wendy C. Grant et al. “Radiocarbon Evidence for Extensive Plate-Boundary Rupture about 300 Years ago at the Cascadia Subduction Zone.”
Nature
378 (November 1995): 371–74.

 

1996

Adams, John. “Great Earthquakes Recorded by Turbidites off the Oregon–Washington Coast.” In
Assessing Earthquake Hazards and Reducing Risk in the Pacific Northwest,
vol. 1, edited by Albert M. Rogers, Timothy J. Walsh, William J. Knockelman, and George R. Priest, 147–58. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1560. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1996.

Ikeda, Yasutaka. “Evaluating Seismic-Risk Potential of Active Faults: What Should We Do Now?”
Active Fault Research
15 (1996): 93–99.

Minor, Rick, and Wendy C. Grant. “Earthquake-Induced Subsidence and Burial of Late Holocene Archaeological Sites, Northern Oregon Coast.”
American Antiquity
61 (1996): 772–81.