A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age (40 page)
Read A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age Online
Authors: Daniel J. Levitin
King, Martin Luther,
141
,
275
n141
The Lancet
,
210
Landon, Alf,
85
law of large numbers,
165
learning, role of mistakes in,
249
Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm,
167
Lieb, Gretchen,
126
–28
Literary Digest
,
85
Locard, Edmond,
217
–18
logarithmic scales,
35
Los Angeles Times
,
55
lying to pollsters,
88
–89,
269
n81
Lyons, Louis,
248
magicians,
153
,
232
,
233
–34,
242
–45.
See also
Blaine, David
Malthus, Thomas,
151
margin of error,
82
,
83
–84,
84
,
269
n84
MartinLutherKing.org,
141
,
275
n141
measurement errors in data collection,
90
–93
medicine
and decision making,
111
–15,
117
–18
and effect of treatments on life expectancy,
228
employment trends in,
63
and incidence vs. prevalence,
149
–151
and mortality,
150
–51
and pathology,
224
Mendeleev, Dmitri,
245
military service,
62
misinformation,
xi
,
168
,
254
,
263
.
See also
counterknowledge
mistakes and learning opportunities,
249
modus ponens statements,
186
,
188
moon-landing denial,
229
–231
mortality and death
causation vs. correlation in,
49
–50,
49
and cause-of-death statistics,
73
–74
and conditional probabilities,
106
–7
crude death rate,
151
and medical advances of Semmelweis,
194
–97
mortality
term,
150
–51
and perception of risk,
173
–75
and plausibility assessments,
6
reported by media,
136
and risk-framing fallacies,
202
–3
and sampling errors,
62
,
63
and shifting baselines,
56
and unknowable/unverifiable claims,
95
–96
motorcycle accidents,
63
Mozart effect,
158
multiple sclerosis (MS),
150
multiraciality,
89
Munroe, Randall,
51
neutrons,
246
New England Journal of Medicine
,
234
New England Patriots,
92
New Jersey, welfare mothers in,
8
–9
New York Times
on ancient earthworks of Kazakhstan,
156
–57
on Blaine’s breath-holding demonstration,
240
–41,
242
on Higgs boson research,
250
statistics misreported by,
8
–9
on unemployment rate,
66
and verification of information,
135
–36
on water consumption in California,
55
1984
(Orwell),
251
Nixon, Tom,
243
–44
non-response errors in sampling,
87
notation of logical statements,
187
–89
Nutrition
,
234
–35
Orwell, George,
251
outliers,
12
–13
The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations
(Knowles, ed.),
126
–27
Paris attacks of November
13
, 2015,
202
–3
participation biases,
86
–88
pathology,
224
pattern detection,
198
peer review,
132
,
135
,
143
–44,
145
percentages and percentage points,
7
periodic table,
245
–46
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE),
94
persuasion by association,
176
–77,
210
placebos,
158
–59
Planned Parenthood,
40
,
40
–42,
41
,
44
–45
plausibility, assessing,
3
–10
pneumonia,
108
political parties,
62
–63
Politifact.com,
147
–48
Pollack, Louis,
6
Popoff, Peter,
241
population
population size,
83
rate of natural increase of (RNI),
151
sample sizes for surveys of,
165
post hoc, ergo propter hoc
,
48
–49,
207
–8,
210
Potkin, Ralph,
241
precision vs. accuracy of numbers,
60
–61
predictions,
154
–55
presidential elections,
19
,
85
,
91
,
147
–48
prevalence (term),
149
–151
probabilities,
97
–120
Bayesian,
99
–102,
216
–221
classic,
98
–99,
271
n98
combining,
102
–3,
218
and counterknowledge,
170
deductive logic of,
183
of events informed by other events,
103
–4
framing,
200
–201
frequentist,
98
–99,
271
n98
in medicine,
224
for recurring, replicable events,
98
–99
and statistical literacy,
166
–67
subjective,
99
–102
visualizing, with fourfold tables,
108
–11,
118
–19,
198
–200
See also
conditional probabilities
prosecutor’s fallacy,
221
psychics,
153
quarks,
246
quota sampling,
81
quotations,
125
–28